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ANC concerned about latest opinion poll

Forum » Beenos Trumpet » ANC concerned about latest opinion poll

Mar 07, 2019, 19:50

The following from Daily Maverick:-

"The African National Congress (ANC)’s chief whip Jackson Mthembu says his party is greatly concerned by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) latest election poll, which shows a decline in support for the ANC nationally and especially in Gauteng.

The findings of the poll, carried out in February, put the ANC’s support at 54.7% nationally, down from the 62.1% it garnered in 2014.

In Gauteng, the IRR poll has the ANC at 41%, a drop of 12% from the 53.6% it won in the last general election setting the stage for a possible coalition government.

Briefing after the ANC’s final caucus meeting at Parliament on Thursday, Mthembu said the poll’s findings will galvanise the party to redouble its campaign efforts.

Mthembu said the IRR’s poll results have jolted the party.

“The polling – does that worry us? Definitely; the polling worries us. That we are very low in Gauteng worries us greatly. We are very concerned. There is no way that we cannot be concerned. That we have gone down from the 56% in the previous polling to a less 1.3% at national level – it worries us.”

Mthembu said the party will be spurred to greater efforts: “When we are worried, we even forget about our factions. You will see us at work. When we are threatened with losing state power… we are not working towards a coalition government – even in Gauteng by the way.”

Mthembu said as the ANC’s campaign intensifies ahead of 8 May, the polling numbers will change. He said he expects the ANC to return with an increased majority."

Just before the Municipal Elections in 2016 the same Agency did a countrywide poll and came up with findings to the effect that the ANC would -

*  get 54% of the vote countrywide;

*  not get majority support in Johannesburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth; and

*  be in trouble in a number of smaller urban areas.

Unlike the USA and other countries where polls have ulterior motives - the one in SA is not aimed at giving a foregone conclusion - thus trying to keep voters away because they are supporting a losing cause anyway. This poll is done on a very sound professional basis,   They indicated in 2016 the ANC would get 54% of the votes cast - they got 53,9% of the votes.  They lost their majorities in the three metropolitan areas mentioned,

The other problem is that the detailed results of their poll have not been announced as yet.   If the ANC is in trouble in Gauteng, they would also be in trouble in the Northern Cape,

If the poll is correct the number of ANC members in Parliament will drop from the present 248 out of 400 to circa  216 seats - they would still have a majority, but it would be very dicey, since the ANC is a party with serious internal division.   The ANC is indeed lucky that they got rid of Zuma as President - if he was still President they would not have more than 40% of the vote.

The ANC claims they are going to work hard to turn the tide - but they will have to convince a skeptical electorate that the rising cost of living as a result of the massive petrol, diesel and fuel prices announced on Monday, as well as the malfunctioning of Eskom (coupled to tariff increases announced today) and increases in unemployment are not their fault.

It would be interesting to see  what will happen of the Zuma loyalists try to take over control of the ANC after the election,   That would cause serious problems for the ANC,             


Mar 08, 2019, 07:07

I see elsewhere that Ramaphosa had a friendly discussion with Maimane after the question session yesterday,   Previously Maimane warned Ranaphosa that the Zuma lot still existing in the ANC will stab him in the back,    Are they planning something here,

After the election Ramaphosa will need strong support to get rid of the remaining Zumanoids in the ANC Parliamentary Caucus and in Cabinet.   He would also be able to count on the Zondo and other Commssions and the independent Court system for disclosing what the Zuma crooks were really up to.      

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