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Ptesent Opinion Polls Impact on US

Forum » Beenos Trumpet » Ptesent Opinion Polls Impact on US

Apr 13, 2019, 09:46

According to recent studies the DP got the following numbers of voters in the 2016 elections:-


African Americans     -     Clinton     -    circa  15 517 000 votes  =   88%

                                     Trump      -    circa    1 598 000 votes  =     9%

   

Latibo votes             -      Clinton    -    circa   15 101 000 votes  =   65%

                                      Trump    -    circa     6 738 000 votes  =   29%


Opinion polls are not a reliable norm to determine election outcomes - but scientific studies are far more accurate,   In recent stidies dome by Universities it was found -

*    that 27% of the African Americans regarded them as Conservatives; and

*    that 50% of the Latino voters at present support President Trump as against the 29% support he got in 2016

One could assume that of the 27% of the African Americans the 9% who voted for Trump is included meaning there is another 18% not accounted for at present.   However a study of age group and education level voting in the African Amercian community indicates that if an election is held today the DP candidate would get not more than 80% of their votes.

Together with the Latino votes the situation could be as follows:-

African Americans    -     DP candidate   -    circa  12  507 000      =   80%

                                        Trump              -    circa   3  198 000       =  18%


Latinos                    -     DP Candidate  -    circa   10 434 000       =   48%

                                      Trump              -    circa   11 617 000       =   50%

The above means that  any DP candidate against Trump will taking into account the 2016 elections stand to lose the following number of votes to Trump:-

African Americans            =     1 600 000 votes

Latinos                               =     4 879 000 votes

Total                                   =     6 479 000 votes

There are obvious increases in voter registration to be borne in mind as well,    If the above hold true the DP could lose the following states they won in 2016:-

New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine,Virginia and Minnesota

They are also going to lose a lot of House of Representative as well as Senate seats.

Not nice news for the DP and one may think that there will be more racist attacks on Trump in the media backing the DP.   They will also  have to be very careful about the candidate of the DP standing in 2020,  A leftwing Socialist will destroy the DP as a party.                                              -          



               

 
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