Testing for Covid has spiked in the US

Forum » Beenos Trumpet » Testing for Covid has spiked in the US

Oct 30, 2020, 04:08

.....from an average of around 800000 a day in September to about 1200000 a day in late October. That explains a fair number of the new cases. Deaths per day by contrast show a modest decline since the beginning of August.The political motivations aren’t even murky:


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states



Oct 30, 2020, 05:42


President Donald J. Trump

KEY FACTS

“It’s not just a function of testing,” said Admiral Brett Giroir, the Trump administration’s testing czar, of rising case numbers in a Wednesday morning interview on NBC’s “Today” show, explaining: “We know that, too, because hospitalizations are going up.” 

Oct 30, 2020, 05:42

Deaths always take about 2 weeks to catch up the spike of reported infections. 


There is also a metric like conversion rate. The higher the number of people that test positive out of 100% of the sample, the faster the disease is spreading. 
This is a way to rule out reporting errors due to an increase or decrease of testing. 

Also, increased hospitalisations always follow a new spike. Then more deaths- even with better treatment. 

Oct 30, 2020, 05:53

‘It’s not just a function of testing’.....which means it’s in large part a function of testing. Case closed.

Oct 30, 2020, 05:58

However, as Giroir said, hospitalization trends tell a different story, with a Tuesday analysis from CNBC showing 36 states have reported a concerning rise in the number of hospitalized patients over the past week 

 The New York Times calculating an estimated 46% rise in the number of people hospitalized from a month ago.

Oct 30, 2020, 06:03

https://covidtracking.com/data

Oct 30, 2020, 14:20

Over 90,000 cases yesterday in the US breaking a new record...
Easily the highest day on record. 


And no, this is not because of more testing (As Trump would say).
Hospital admissions have increased rapidly, and deaths will rise again within 1 week. 

It is a simple process

1. Cases Rise (higher % of tests result in positive cases)

2. Hospital Admissions Increase

3. Deaths increase. 


Oct 30, 2020, 16:53

Wrong cases started increasing in August without any effect on deaths. Hospitalization is a decision......I have no faith in that variable.

Nov 05, 2020, 21:30

107K in the USA yesterday. Highest day on record by any country. 

Nov 06, 2020, 17:03

But not as high as the combination of lockdown countries the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and France........which with exactly the same population registered 160000 cases.

Nov 06, 2020, 17:43

The winter season has caused EU to lose control of the virus. However, the 2nd wave lockdown has just started in the UK yesterday. It is a short lockdown. 


Biden will follow a similar approach-  shorter lockdowns until the vaccine is ready. 

Nov 06, 2020, 17:46

Biden will be trying to find the bathroom......but some puppet master will be trying to enforce lockdowns, which will in many cases be overturned by state judges. You still haven’t grasped how this works.

Nov 06, 2020, 17:57

"The winter season has caused EU to lose control of the virus."


No sh!t! Europe can blame winter, but in the USA it's all Trump's fault! Genius at work!

Nov 06, 2020, 18:14

The winter will cause in an increase in cases of the virus in both Europe and in America and its a contributing factor to Europe loosing control of the virus. However the primary cause of the virus cases rising in Europe is not the lock downs failing, its that happened after Europe opened back up from the lockdowns. Europe tried to open up as much as it could after the various lockdowns and try to maintain the virus at manageable levels but pretty much everywhere opened up much too much, due to a sense of lockdown fatigue, complacency and pressure from various business sectors (which are quite understandable). Much of Europe is going back into lockdown so you can't expect to see the cases coming down over the next few weeks and it may get it back under control and attempt another controlled re-opening afterwards. The UK is different from the rest of Europe in that their handling of the pandemic has been a complete shitshow both from a health and economic perspective and has basically bungled every part of its pandemic response.

America on the other hand never had control of the virus at any stage. No its not all Trumps fault but he must take a large portion of the blame, blame which is showing in the result of the election.

Nov 11, 2020, 17:19

‘The UK is different from the rest of Europe in that their handling of the pandemic has been a complete shitshow both from a health and economic perspective and has basically bungled every part of its pandemic response.’ 


‘Their handling’ sets up a plural subject....so ‘has bungled’ should be ‘have bungled’

And it’s not ‘loosing’ it’s ‘losing’.

....



Nov 11, 2020, 17:22

The UK ranks as one of the top worst countries in dealing with Covid, however, the US will forever hold the mantle.


140,000 cases yesterday in the US. Beating by far the worst week on record, with most days beating legacy records. Trump has certainly made the US the great with Covid

The UK has started flattening the curve of the second wave. 
Meanwhile, the US continues to exponential growth, setting new records each week. 
By the time the vaccine arrives, the US will almost have achieved herd immunity. 

History will look back at who saved the most lives. Not the countries who's richest 10% got richer during the pandemic. 

If you were lying on your back in a hospital dying from Covid, and the doctor says we have a choice between tanking the stock market or saving you....
Doctor: "Sorry, Trump just called in and said the stock market is more important". 

Nov 11, 2020, 18:36

If the US had 100000 cases every day for a year that would amount to roughly one in ten people getting the virus. If the death rate is 0.5% that amounts to one in 2000 people dying. But the average time to live for a Covid victim is probably less than 5% of a life.


So at the current rate we are losing 1 in 40000 life years.

Meanwhile Europe is losing the equivalent of a trillion dollars through lockdowns....which if a million dollars conservatively buys a life.....equals a million lives.

Yes it’s a fatalistic way of looking at the problem but the European approach is costing far more life years.

Nov 14, 2020, 00:49

163,000 cases today in the US. The winter season hit the EU first, and then the US.


More than double 2 weeks ago. Exponential growth- just like in Europe. 

Since Covid has started- the speed at which it is growing now is faster than at any time.

Just like it hit the EU first at the end of winter this year, then the US, the virus suddenly just explodes out of control. 

All the protests, marches and political events are surely making it worse in the US. 

Nov 14, 2020, 01:09


Nov 11, 2020, 18:36

 If the death rate is 0.5% that amounts to one in 2000 people dying.

----------------------------

1% of 100 is 1 death per 100 people,
so 0.5% (half) is 1 death per 200 people. 

- Although death rates will always be unclear, as no one knows what % of cases go unreported.

Nov 14, 2020, 05:34

But if only 10% of the population get the virus.....which is consistent with 100000 cases a day....then one in 2000 die. Follow the bouncing ball.

As for the severity of the current  outbreak, the daily deaths are no higher than late July /early August. There are probably more cases, but also running many more tests suggests there are also many more asymptomatic cases.

Nov 14, 2020, 07:15

1% of 100 is 1 death per 100 people,
so 0.5% (half) is 1 death per 200 people. 

Illustrating some amazing mathematical prowess here!

Nov 14, 2020, 08:04

Lower deaths now may also be attributable to the fact that the first wave killed a lot of the vulnerable group. Remember, this thing barely registers a noteworthy death rate in under 55s. So far 18382 people under 55 has died in the US due to Covid. 129012 deaths are in the age group 75 and over.

Nov 14, 2020, 14:18

US Covid increases to 180,000 cases in one day yesterday. 


The lower death rate is because it takes time for deaths to catch up within the % increase of new cases.
Deaths are already back to near 1.5K per day.
A big increase from October which was much lower. 

Unfortunately, deaths will reach 2K per day within 2 weeks.
Given the improvement in treatment now, this shows that more people have it now than back in April. 

Nov 15, 2020, 18:17

Actually many of the people tested positive now are university kids where they have strong testing protocols....the death rates are still below July/August. The higher case rate is due to more testing, the nature of testing and the fact that up north there is more opportunity for indoor transmission.

Nov 19, 2020, 17:20


Just short of 2000 deaths in the US yesterday. 
The deaths are starting to catch up with the number of cases and hospitalisations.

Some US states and cities are going into partial lockdowns to reduce deaths until the vaccines are approved. 


Chicago issues stay-at-home advisory, new restrictions on ...

wgntv.com › news › coronavirus › chicago-issues-stay-...
7 days ago — CHICAGO — Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced a stay-at-home advisory for the City of Chicago that will go into effect starting Monday, Nov. 16. 



Nov 20, 2020, 00:09

Good old Lori Lightfoot comes down with a heavy hand....no the deaths are pretty much like July. Much of the case load  is increased testing among young people.

Nov 26, 2020, 13:19

The US deaths are now over 2000 per day, with yesterday on 2300. Getting close to as bad as it has ever been. 

The more people that get Covid, the more people die. It just takes 2-3 weeks or so - for reported deaths to catch up with increasing infections. 

It goes to show that treatment for Covid has not actually improved much, other than the steroid dexamethasone which was proven to work in the UK. 

The vaccines need to be approved ASAP.

Nov 26, 2020, 17:21

Actually it’s nothing like as bad as it was.....2000 deaths in April  were focused in about 4 states......now it’s 2000 deaths across the whole country. It’s nothing like as intensive as it was. 

Nor is the death rate as high...in April  there were a relatively low number of active cases because you built from zero. There were just north of a million active cases....now we are above 5 million. With the death rates about the same that would say active cases are progressing to deaths at about a fifth the rate.

 But your basic point is right, we haven’t found a treatment that relegates getting Covid to a non threatening event for many. And society is unwilling to accept the deaths...so the vaccine is the only alternative.

Nov 26, 2020, 18:38

The death rate here in Ireland in the second wave is 90% lower than the first wave. We are in the 5th week of a 6 week lock down and are expected to re-open on December 3rd though there will be still restrictions. The general feeling here is that we will be going in and out of lock downs to varying degrees until a vaccine is rolled out.




Nov 27, 2020, 21:23

Given that Hydroxychloroquine cuts the hospitalization rate by 84% its a great pity Dr Fauci and the globalist media turned so many against the drug.

These fakes need to be locked up.

Also lock up the demonrat governors who have  the worst death rate by far, including genocidal maniac Governor Cuomo of New York State. Fancy ORDEING infected people back into old age homes. Fancy lunching a law suit to over turn trump's travel bans from China and Europe. Fancy being so totally unprepared and begging for help from Federal Government when the primary responsibility is at state level.

Fancty given their views on lockdowns they allowed mass rioting with no masks and social distancing.

Bwahahahahaahahahha wahta bunch of fakes.

Then we had CNN host and brother of Governor Cuomo, Fredo Cuomo outside a house he had bought with no mask arging with a local all while positive with the chinese virus! Fancy being sent a letter by his landlord for not wearing a mask when the twit had been telling all and sundry to wear masks etc on his CNN show.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA


 
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