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The Brexit strategy - how to nullify the 2016 Referendum Result

Forum » Beenos Trumpet » The Brexit strategy - how to nullify the 2016 Referendum Result

Mar 13, 2019, 09:47

This is really a weird situation one can only expect from politicians.   So what is really happening is really not surprising.   The EU has a strategy to deal with referendum results in member countries that they do not like and part of the strategy is covered in the following article from News24:-


"The British parliament's rejection of the Brexit agreement makes crashing out of the EU without a deal much more likely, the bloc said on Tuesday, as it warned there is no more it can do.

Lawmakers inflicted another crushing defeat on beleaguered Prime Minister Theresa May, voting to reject the divorce deal, even after she secured further guarantees from Brussels.

Senior EU officials lined up to voice regret at the result, and to hammer home the message that Brussels would not make any further concessions to help May win over recalcitrant MPs.

If parliament fails to approve an accord the UK will crash out of the bloc without a deal on March 29 - unless a delay is agreed, something the EU said it would be willing to consider.

A spokesperson for Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, said he regretted the result, but warned that from Brussels' viewpoint "it is difficult to see what more we can do".

"With only 17 days left to March 29, today's vote has significantly increased the likelihood of a 'no-deal' Brexit," the spokesperson said.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier echoed the view, saying there was nothing more Brussels could do.

"The EU has done everything it can to help get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line. The impasse can only be solved in the UK. Our 'no-deal' preparations are now more important than ever before," Barnier tweeted.

'Uncharted waters'

The message was repeated by a spokesperson for European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

"Given the additional assurances provided by the EU in December, January and yesterday, there is no more we can do. If there is a solution to the current impasse it has to be found in London," the spokesperson said.

EU ambassadors will meet in Brussels on Wednesday morning to assess the vote, the bloc's contingency plans - and to discuss whether to grant a delay to Brexit if London asks for one.

"We are in uncharted waters," one EU diplomat told AFP.

"We are not talking about a situation where there are still good solutions - we have to choose between different suboptimal solutions."

Shortly before the vote, Barnier voiced disquiet at the tenor of the debate in the House of Commons, warning MPs against the "dangerous illusion" that they could benefit from a transition period even without a proper divorce deal.

"Listening to debate in @HouseofCommons: there seems to be a dangerous illusion that the UK can benefit from a transition in the absence of the WA," Barnier tweeted, referring to the Withdrawal Agreement.

"Let me be clear: the only legal basis for a transition is the WA. No withdrawal agreement means no transition."

'Buckle up'

Transitional arrangements to wind down Britain's involvement with the EU form part of the agreement - but would need the British and European parliaments' approvals to take effect.

Some Brexit-supporting MPs argue that contingency measures announced by the EU that would come into effect in the event of no deal would effectively operate as a mini transition deal - a notion strongly rejected by Brussels officials.

Attention will now turn to whether Britain will ask for a delay to Brexit - a question MPs will be asked to vote on in the coming days.

"Should there be a UK reasoned request for an extension, the EU27 will stand ready to consider it and decide by unanimity," Juncker's spokesperson said.

An extension would need the backing of all 27 remaining EU countries.

Some countries, notably France, have insisted an extension would not be granted without good reason, but another EU diplomat said even if the arguments were shaky "we will probably still do it anyway".

"Now we have to buckle up a little tighter because the speed is getting higher so close to the Brexit date," the diplomat said.:

The EU strategy

The EU had a string of \referendum results in countries like the Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal and Greece they did not like and went against their strategies of centralized government in Brussels with the EU Commission passing laws to the various countries to implement.

In the above cases it was relatively easy - the Governments of the countries mentioned were against the outcomes of the referendums so the strategy adopted was to -

*   force the Government of Greece - who was effectively bankrupt because of naval defense equipment sold to them by German firms - to accept money facilitated  by the EU to keep them afloat and got the co-operation of the weak populist Prime Minster of Greece to co-operate;

*   force the willing Irish Government to hold a second referendum  to negate the results of th first referendum and hold a second one;

*    support the decision by the Dutch and Portuguese Governments to just ignore the referendum results and go along with the EU prescripts,

None of the above referendums dealt with leaving of the countries from the EU - merely a rebellion against certain processes as to the  Euro or migration policy,    The UK referendum was a different challenge for the EU to handle - it dealt with the departure of a country from the EU - a much more serious issue.   The EU cannot allow the UK to leave the EU because departure by the UK could result in the departure of other countries as well, so the strategy decided upon is -

*    to lay down conditions for departure that would not be acceptable by the UK Parliament by co-operation with willing partners in the main political parties in the UK; and 

*    tried to get to a stage where the two willing parties would be forced into a second referendum where the absent EU agreement would be an argument to try and influence the electorate.

If that second referendum does not change the present scenario it would be back to the same strategy they have used thus far - another set of unacceptable agreements to force a deadlock again,

The UK Government 

Both the Conservative and Labour Parties in 2016 campaigned to remain EU members,   However, about 50% of the supporters rebelled against them and voted for Brexit,  Both Prime Minister May and Labour Leader Corbyn was in trouble since they could not go against the majority of their normal voting fodder - so both said they accept the referendum results.

But what politicians say and what they do is something completely different.   So a new strategy was worked out that would work,  It would make Brexit meaningless - the UK would still be subject to all EU practices without having representatives on the EU Commission and in the EU Parliament,   

Negotiate a new deal that would be prescribed by the EU and would not be acceptable to the UK Parliament especially the rebels in the Conservative and Labour Party members,  The Conservative and Labour leaders would then have different strategies to follow.   

The strategy was for -

*   the Conservative Party members of Parliament who campaigned against Brexit would co-operate with getting the present  agreement accepted; and

*   the Labour Party to vote against the proposed agreement.

May and her supporters in the Conservative Party - who despite their protestations to he contrary -  still want to remain in the EU would then support the Brexit agreement that would be rejected by the UK Parliament - since they would not be acceptable to their Northern Irish allies as well and a deadlock would result.   Parliament will then vote together - ie the pro-remain members of the Conservative and Labour Parties would then unite voting that Brexit would not be acceptable without an agreement. 

The strategy would then be deadlocked and the way would be open to undermine the 2016 referendum result.   The EU first option would be that another referendum be held, such as was the case in Ireland.   That could be dangerous - the rebellions against the EU in a number of EU countries could even have a greater impact on the UK electorate than it had in 2016.   In 2016 the impact of the present scenario in a string of EU countries such as France, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and other members and the dwindling support for pro-EU governments in general would have a greater impact on a second referendum.  If the second referendum vote  for Brexit again - it will then be a repeat of the present scenario.

What I think the EU is not considering is that in recent elections in France and Italy in particular led to the near to total elimination of long existing political parties vanish from sight and new parties arose   Does the question remains will the EU issue lead to the same happening to the  Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK?         .

    

          

  


Mar 13, 2019, 11:19

Nullify Brexit? No way that going to happen.

Mar 13, 2019, 12:12

I think the strategy outlined above will be used to undermine Brexit.  

Mar 13, 2019, 19:46

The British Tribe has spoken more than 2 years ago. Their government is using stalling tactics  in the hope that "something will change" and either the people "will come to their senses" or something else will happen to get them off the hook with their globalist masters. While they are actually ignoring the will of the people. They are showing the world that democracy is an illusion.  

Mar 13, 2019, 19:55

Another globalist conspiracy... yawn. 


The IRA was involved in planning a bomb for the first time in like 20 years due to the backstop in Northern Ireland.. All down to the deal that no one is happy with. The same deal that could cause a recession. 

Europe is not playing ball, and they are trying to give an ultimatum of no deal or remain in the EU. So no one knows what is going to follow, not because of a childish globalist conspiracy. 

It seems many people are happy with the EU, except for a few areas like importing third world terrorists


Mar 13, 2019, 23:06

Much of what was said the last few days is just waffle. Brexit is locked into law and can only be change by law and there is just not enough time to do that. On top  of that EU approval to change art 50 must be obtained from 28 countries. Only 1 vote against will veto the whole exercise.

99.9% chance Brexit will happen on 29 March.

 

Mar 14, 2019, 09:54

SB

Are you happy with the EU?   Many people all over the EU is not.  Definitely not in France and Italy.   Even Hungary and Austria has rebelled against the EU and it goes wider than purely the migrant issue,   

The fact seems to be that the EU Commission approve "laws" which individual member countries must implement and many of their prescripts have left the middle and working class people in a worse position than they were 20 years ago.      

Mar 14, 2019, 11:17

When people are not happy they are always going to blame the current system that is in place. There are some things that are EU specific that people are not happy with, mostly around loose border control that allows the third world entry into these countries.

Some political changes are good, with others not so.

I do think the EU should be mostly about trading relationships like the free movement of goods in a similar way as the states in America operate. I am happy with this arrangement as I think it does develop the economy. It benefits Britain as a country that speaks English- which is the world trading language.


 
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