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The Observer The ANC has left South Africa a land of broken dreams. Its time seems over

Forum » Beenos Trumpet » The Observer The ANC has left South Africa a land of broken dreams. Its time seems over

May 13, 2024, 01:19

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/11/anc-south-africa-elections


At this month’s elections, the party of Mandela should be judged on its dismal record over the past 30 years

Sat 11 May 2024 15.00 BST
Who will save South Africa from itself? Not the ruling African National Congress (ANC), whose 30 unbroken years of under-achievement have brought the country to its present sorry pass. Not “reformist” president Cyril Ramaphosa, widely considered a disappointment. And not Russia or China, either, to which Pretoria’s flailing regime, increasingly at odds with the west, looks for succour.
Three decades after Nelson Mandela’s historic poll victory formally vanquished apartheid, and less than three weeks before another watershed election, it’s all going wrong for the Rainbow Nation. Africa’s most developed country is now its most unequal, the World Bank says. Crime is rampant, corruption endemic, growth is tanking. More than 60% live in poverty. Unemployment among black people is 40%.
Voters face a choice on 29 May between a discredited, tarnished ANC, which is predicted to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time, and a broad array of disunited opposition parties. Like 1994, it is also a fundamental choice about what sort of South Africa they want – democratic or authoritarian, open or closed, free market or centrally directed, inclusive or exclusive.

The same pivotal choice faces other would-be 21st-century powers – countries such as Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Indonesia. As when Mandela completed his long walk to freedom, the international community, and the western democracies especially, are watching closely to see which way South Africa jumps. It has a chance to lead again.

The statistical story so far is an index of broken dreams. Reporting in 2022, the World Bank identified race, apartheid’s legacy and unequal land ownership as ongoing core problems. Even now, 30 years on, about 10% of the 60 million population controls 80% of the wealth.

Government attempts to level the playing field frequently misfire. Ramaphosa says about 25% of farmland is now owned by black South Africans. But critics argue the land restitution programme has sharply reduced productivity and employment. Government “equity targets” to ensure workplaces accurately reflect the country’s racial make-up attract similar controversy.

The official, overall unemployment figure is a dismaying 32%. Surveys suggest vast disparities between the average monthly incomes of black and white households are persisting. Housing and education are other big problem areas, where the discriminatory and segregationist practices of the past still disadvantage the least well off.

Yet at the same time, white South Africans, angry at the institutionalised bias of the Black Economic Empowerment regulations and spooked by violent crime, continue to vote with their feet. Nearly one-fifth of 1994’s total white population has emigrated, exacerbating present-day skills shortages. This has led to arbitrary curbs on capital export and pension payments, and declining tax revenues. Only about 12% of South Africans pay income tax. About 62% of the black population receives state grants (welfare benefits).

In his state of the nation address in February, Ramaphosa implicitly laid much blame for post-1994 failures on his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, who was briefly jailed amid corruption allegations in 2021. “For a decade, individuals at the highest levels of the state conspired with private individuals to take over and re-purpose state-owned companies, law enforcement agencies and other public institutions,” he said.

“Billions of rands that were meant to meet the needs of ordinary South Africans were stolen. Confidence in our country was badly eroded. Public institutions were severely weakened. The effects of state capture continue to be felt across society, from the shortage of freight locomotives to crumbling public services, from the poor performance of our power stations to failed development projects.”

It was an extraordinary confession, inadvertently highlighting Ramaphosa’s own ineffectiveness since taking office in 2018. Organised corruption remains a hugely destructive problem. The speech provided an odd preface to the coming election, in which Ramaphosa, as ANC leader, is seeking a second presidential term.

The main challenger is the liberal, centre-right Democratic Alliance, good for an estimated fifth of the vote. Unsustainable state spending, low growth and investment, crime and graft are key DA campaign issues. Yet if the ANC does fall below 50% support, it may be the land-expropriating, hard-left Economic Freedom Fighters and a new populist party, uMkhonto weSizwe (Spear of the Nation), backed by Zuma, that do the most damage.

Messy coalition negotiations could lie ahead. By rights, in any modern democracy, the ANC’s record should “cast it into oblivion”, wrote Brian Pottinger, former editor of South Africa’s Sunday Times. “Not so in South Africa. To many, particularly poor and rural black people, [it] is a powerful, even mystical brand. There is nostalgic pride in the ANC’s 112-year-long struggle for black emancipation and dignity.”

Yet research shows loyalty to the ANC is weaker among post-1994 generations – the so-called “born frees”.

Pottinger believes that, while the country desperately needs change, the ANC is incapable of delivering it – and will double down on failure. “The ANC will stick to its catastrophic redistributive economic policies rather than pursuing growth, batten the hatches against capital flight and pre-emptively seek to chill free speech,” he predicted.

As western political confidence and business investment wanes, the ANC is relying ever more heavily on defence, security and commercial ties with Russia and China. South Africa has refused to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and joined naval operations with China and Russia last year. Beijing is South Africa’s largest trading partner. Russian oligarchs have helped fund the ANC.

For all who value democracy, freedom and the rule of law, these are plainly the wrong choices. Exploitative great powers and dictators such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will not save South Africa from itself. Nor will self-serving ANC elites. Only South Africans themselves can do that – by exercising en masse the power of the vote bequeathed to them by Nelson Mandela.

May 13, 2024, 05:06

Since African countries got independence there were in the main two norms in the case of Regime change and that was through -

*    army coups getting rid of dictatorial Government; and 

*    dictators being replaced by family members.

Regime change through election was in fact a rarity since elections were marred by undemcoratic ballot fraud means.   What was clear was that despite public support regimes hung onto power  through undemocratic means.    The long govenance by independence leaders ranges for up to 40 years in which those leaders enriched themselves beyond imagination.

In SA the change were long overdue - the ANC turned into corruption and maladministration became the norm.   The fact is that people began to realize that the ANC are not running the country and in that he media did play a role since they regularly exposed maladministration and orruption.

The three major parties in the country are the ANC. the EFF and MK have one thing in common - looting of the country and its resources are open for looting and that is a problem that must be borne in mind.   The EFF  and MK are both off0shoots of the ANC and their joint admiration for Zuma are set to create more problems  than they solve.   Zuma is in charge of MK and that means a coalition Government between the three parties would just be another disaster for the country.   There are some ANC leadership figures that would try and prevent such a coalition since it would be a fianl disaster for them.

The DA, Inkatha and the ALM together with 4 other smaller parties would get roundabout 160 members in Parliament With the ANC having about  150 members if the present opinion polls hold out.   

The situation would according to opinion polls being as follows as to members of Parliament:-

ANC                      -     150 members

DA and allies         -     160 members

EFF and MK          -       90 members

Inside the ANC there are radicals that would want to re-unite the party with the socialist and leftist elements in EFF and MK - but th ere are also elements in th e ANC that are opposed to such an alliance - and the kingmaker in that regard will be Mbeki - whose influence within the ANC grew in the period since his ouster as party leader in 2007 and is th major inflence over the Xhosa elements in the ANC.   .    

We will know by 30 May 2024 what the result would be and the shenannigans will take some time to determine what the new SA Government would look like.    The only hope is that foreign interferece in the forming of the Government will not be a factor.   In that regard the involvement of the Chinese and the USA ultra-leftist Governments will be equally non-desirables in that regard.    South Africa has a major impact on African Governments and if any country gets installed would be a negative for the SA people if the EFF and MK has a role in Govenment in SA.   

   

                                 

   

May 13, 2024, 05:37

would be a negative for the SA people if the EFF and MK has a role in Govenment

Catastrophic

May 13, 2024, 05:54

I don't see much changing. The oppposition against the ANC is divided between a myriad insignificant parties that only serve to dilute votes and make it easier for the ANC to win again even if most of the country vote against them. And the strongest opposition, the DA, is so hell bent on shooting themselves in the foot that they probably won't get past 20%. Which is pretty pathetic given the decades they've had to challenge a government as bad as the ANC.

May 13, 2024, 07:52

If the EFF and the MK do get some sort of majority vote, that would end SA .. I have no doubt

May 14, 2024, 06:12

And now the NHI has been signed in to legislation

May 14, 2024, 16:21

I see their election slogan is "We can do more".

Now if that isn't an admission of guilt, after 30 years, then I don't know what is.

May 14, 2024, 18:01

South Africa is doing extremely well despite the ANC...if it wern't for them, we would have been way better off...look at the Western Cape opposed to the rest of the country...almost 1st world economic growth and lower unemployment...despite the influx of "economic" refugees streaming here from the other provinces...and rest of Africa...making the DA majority smaller every election cycle...you can't fix stupid...ANC voters are stupid racist idiots...they deserve what they get...dumbf@#$.

May 15, 2024, 04:35

I hope they don't need the effing EFF in a coalition .................. ditto Zuma.

Another look

May 15, 2024, 18:48

ATM the EFf, ANC, Zuma bots and cohorts are proving that the fcked up Apartheid regime was the the lesser of more than only 2 fcked up evils...

May 15, 2024, 19:16

I think the EFF and MK will steal much of the ANC vote but very little of the DA's.

Most DA voters see the ANC, MK and EFF as the same thing, rightly so.

The only problem is the frigging Muslims being pissed at the DA because of Israel.

May 15, 2024, 19:50

I'm also p!$$Ed at the DA...for other reasons...st!ll better than the fcn ANC/EFF/Zuma/PAC fucknuts...showing the world why Apartheid got traction in the first place....

May 25, 2024, 14:03

What is going on.   I have been into town and noticed posters by most parties bar the  NC.   Maybe the ANC gave  up on the area and do not think any campaignng would help them in getting votes in the area.  

May 25, 2024, 14:03

What is going on.   I have been into town and noticed posters by most parties bar the  ANC.   Maybe the ANC gave  up on the area and do not think any campaignng would help them in getting votes in the area.  

May 25, 2024, 19:33

May 25, 2024, 19:34

May 27, 2024, 06:17

Db, what's the latest with the Cape going independent?

May 27, 2024, 07:15

lol

The ANC are in South Africa.

What left Lesotho, Swaziland, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Angola, Mozambique, Congo, Chad, Nigeria, The Sudans, Ethiopia, Somalia, Niger, Ghana, Liberia...in the state they are in?

South Africa is simply becoming what the rest of Africa already is. Blame the ANC if you like. But it would not be any different if it was the MK, EFF, IFP...

So, what's the common denominator?

The common denominator is exceptionally low IQ scores.

May 27, 2024, 08:11

When one follows the trail of utter filth that permeates these previously fantastic South African towns, just look at what changed in those towns ..... every single one of them

Clear as mud

May 27, 2024, 10:14

Apparently Mthatha on the East coast has been completely closed off on all sides, due to protesting, there is no in or out.

Now the SAPS are calling in the SANDF as support .....

Holding towns to ransom now...... pathetic.

May 27, 2024, 12:54

An independent Western Cape will never be allowed... unfortunately... but more outonomy under the constitution is possible...so let's hope for that...

May 27, 2024, 14:01

I suspect that most of the MK came from EFF voters and not necessarily from the ANC.   F act is that the ANC is a divided party resulting  from bribery and corruption in the leadership.   Corruption in Africa in the end left liberating parties being  unpopular and falling and even vanishing completely.   

I think SA  with its better communication system is going  to see changes coming  on Wednesday especially from people borne after 1994 - as well as the older voters who expecfed the ANC to improve their  life and living  standards - but fail in delivery.    

We can only hope for a better future.       

May 27, 2024, 14:39

"An independent Western Cape will never be allowed"

Pity.... I see a recent poll shows that 68% of the respondents supported a referendum on Cape Independence.... an increase of 45% over a 36 month period....

Not exactly a massive poll, but still telling

The people are gatvol it seems

May 27, 2024, 15:17

The irony being the Transkei was the ANC homeland.

Once the ANC took over government, they collected taxes from the Kei but never did anything for them. Eventually, and only after they successfully sued the government, were schools, hospitals and roads budgeted for in the region.

And of course, in case anybody here had never been to Mthatha...it's bloody Satan's asshole. Still, to this day, easily the worst place I have ever been to. I had the misfortune of carrying out a bunch of projects there.

May 28, 2024, 06:15

"it's bloody Satan's asshole. Still, to this day, easily the worst place I have ever been to."

Yep, been there a few times...... your description here is incredibly polite

May 28, 2024, 09:12

I used to travel from Durban to Riversdale in the 1980's and since and often since driving at night in the Transkei was a nghtmare - I stayed over in teh holiday Inn  in Umtata - the only devcent place tos aty in that disastrous place. 

During that time before 1994 there were major Government policies as to enhncement of the eonomy in the Transkei through Government assistance to the Black farmers and families.   The fact that I was also working for the Department of Forestry who promoted forestry in the Transkei with  a  sawmill in Umtata as well.   Be it a it may both the agricultural and forestry prgrams collapsed after 1994 and since then deterioration just increased going hand in hand with more poverty in the whole Transkei.

Being a Trustee of the Albert Luthili Trust I was responsibile for the construction of  the Albert Luthil Center in Groutville funded by donors I got money from for the Project and had close liaison with  Dr Albertina Luthuli - a daughter of Albert Luthuli.   She asked me to have dinner with Jacob Zuma ad Dr Zuma - his ex-wife.   I gave them advice to ensure that te Public Servants do their proper jobs and not become a situation where they are using  their positions to abuse the rights of individuals and stay away from corrupt activities within the govedrnment.   That perhaps explain my present attitude to the Biden Regime in the USA.    

What happened was that during the discussion - while Zuma listened and made some psoitive remarks - Dr Zuma said "We4 will appoint our own people and everything will work out'",    About a year later I saw Dr Luthuli  in Spar in Ballito,   She was laughing when seeing me and told me that Dr Zuma appointed a Director General of Health and she fired her within a year.

The screams on site would condemn me outright - but I was normally on a postuve side when ti comes to development.  I will give you 2 examples.   The one related to the private hospital in Ballito..   There were a number of developers who wanted to underake he project and by 2003 there were five developers who applied to he Provincial  Government for a hospital operating license  - but for more than 3 years there were no responses from the relevant Department.   I then one weekend phoned Dr Luthuli and asked her if she does not think Ballito can do with a private hoispital and since she was supportive, I took her five letters  which she signed supporting the project and gave it to the five applicants.   While she was a MP at the time - she spoke to the Provincial Premier and the appliction of one developer was approvced.    The hospital ws even called the Alberlito hospital as a result.

On a similar way I dealt with the Ballito enrance road situation.   The amssive economic expansion in Ballito and surroundings at the time - with monthly building plan approvals running at over R2 billion per month the present entry road from the N2 was a nightmare.   It would take people up to an hour to get from the N2 to the town.   When the Government decided to upgrade the intersection on the N2.   That represened a further problem and asked th consultants to provide me witha planed upgrading project so that I could get Council appoval for the 3 km provincial road from the intersection t the entry to the ton at the time.   The 3 kms would at he time cost R56 million.    Based on the report and the plans for upgrading o he intersection   and the consultant reports - I suggested to the then Mayor that we approach the Provincial Government  to make an allocation to cover at least part of he projected costs.   He a few days aler phoned me to prepare a letter and bring it to teh Jewish hall in Durban where the ANC had a meeting.    It took me three hours to do the letter and with copies of the Government planned intersection upgrade and the report I got from the Consultants took the letter to Durban.

In the end after daily calls to the Development Bank approve a municipal loan to cover the needed electricity upgrading program qand the cost of the road upgrading project - the Provincial Department aqpprovced a grant of R16 million for the project and he Development Bank approved the application as submitted.   So that road wss a project of mine that really helped Ballito and surrounding areas.    In 2003 I wsa appointe as Dirctor of Economic Development of  KwaDukuza (Stanger) and from then to 2008 the Municipal budget and income increased from R350 million in 2003-04 to R1,2 billion in 2008-09 with only minimal increases in rates and taxes.   

I metioned that because it was regarded by the ANC as the top developng area in SA - so they sent delegates to Ballito for advice regularly and it became another head ache I had to deal with.  I was even given a R10 000 a year entertainment allowance by the Municipality to use for that  purpose and gave talks about development all over SA and even in Germany and the UK.    I can remember taking a mayor and delegation from Bronkhorstspruit for lunch at the Zimabli Lodge and on the way there I asked the mayor of that town  not to order any wine - since it was horribly expensive.   The bugger ordered a bottle of wine costing R1 200 - which horrified me and in the end I paid for the lunch myself and did not submit a claim for payment by the Municipality.   About 5 years later I saw a newspaper report on the relevant major being found guilty fo bribery and corruption and he got a 5 year jail sentence for that one - - my response was the bastard deserved that one.                      .              .        .     

By the way I booked the lunch on the Monday - but when getting to the gate to Zimbali on Wednesday they told me the restaurant was fully booked and they cannot let me and party in/      I became the hell in and in the end  it came out that the restuarant was fully occiupied by Harry and Bridget Openheimer and two friends of theirs.   It hapened three weeks before the death of Harry Oppenheimer.. 

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May 28, 2024, 17:14

T.I.A. This is Africa - Reggae colours (on black) | Pullover Hoodie

May 29, 2024, 01:39

Africa was doomed from the  date Ghana bcame independent.    The rule in Afria was the kings and tribal chiefs ruled because they were the strongest person - not only physical but also through military strength ruled.

When the counries became independent - the ancient form of African Government took over - democracy was never a concept they were interested in.and foreign to their ideas and those of  their subordinates.    The othe problem for most African countries is that te European colonizers drew their own bounderies and did not take regqard to lanuguage and behavior 0 so the result was oftn civil wars internally.

In some cases European countries intervened and tried to establish order - but when they left the chaos returnd rapidly.   The problem also became basically impossible to handle is religious believes.   Africans -especially in Central and Sothern Afria  substnantially adoped there local religious believes and when they became Christian the retained part of their own believes,  - in the case of Islam the fact is th at absolute submission was enforced.   

In the case of most African Countries Denocracy has vanished altogether and the strongest miltary leaders often cause coups and the do exactly what their predecessors and they became worse than there previous leaders were,  

In SA there was a degree of independence  and even the homelands leaders were forced to bear in mind democratic principles,    Over the years the population learned that at least some human rights protection was necessary - esecially before 1994 those rights were  abused by Government - but the Africans negotiating the introduction of Demcoracy had to concede that Governments in Africa failed because of dictatorial conduct - so the ANC leadership agreed to articipate in supporting a dmocratic Constitution - by many regarded as a model for Democratic Governance,   Part of the Constitution was the establishment of the Constitutional Court - which court will protect the cosntitution against Government exceses.   That Court effectively since 1994 always ruled in favor of the cosntitutional norms and often declared Government Actions illegal.   The Zuma Corruption issue was a tyical example of thei rulings.

In the north of Mozambique especially where the Arabs ruled for centuries the Muslims enforced total adherance to Muslim control.   In northern Mzambique there is a large Muslim cmmunity and that led to Muslim  terrorism in the area.   The Mozambique Government asked for military help  from SA and the USA and basically both Governments sent in troops to contain the problem in an area which is the land base for massive offshore oil and gas fields and self-intrest obviously decided on what is to happen.   

However, there is totally different and foreign to SA - by the USA rather protect the terrorists than wipe out the terroroists.   That makes for a headache for especially the Mozambiqyue Government and the SA soldiers in the area.   The US Navy is supposed to control flow of people from travelling from Zanzibar to Dar-es-Salaam and make sure potential terrorist of not entering Zanzibar from Muslim countries, but are not intercepted by the US Navy  resuling in a growth of terrorist strength in the area,     The fear amngst mostly the Black community is that terrorism is a direct threat to them and they therefore support  Demcoracy.

In SA there is a much more secure systems in place when t cmes to registration of voters  and in voting. than there is in he USA.    When people cannot vote for any reason they can apply for erluy voting and the EC send their agets to the people invovled - not Party reps,  UInientified mail in ballots are not allowed.       The card or book is read into the comuer and only if a  clearance slip is provided may ballot papers be provided for people to vote and a much better counting system of votes are in place. as well.    Vote cuting  is li.kely to be complete by f riday and by early Wednesday trends will become clearer when it comes to the Western Cape and in the Metropoles.            .                              

May 29, 2024, 12:03

We're fucked...we should circumvent government and carry on as we see fit...manage our own schools, medical aid, insurance,  transport, electricity...oh wait....

Jun 07, 2024, 22:49

The elder non whites experienced many hardships during the Nat rule 1948-1992 and no way in hell will they ever vote for a white or mixed political party.

Who can blame them.

Until such time as the younger non white voters become the majority (as they did not have to endure the same hardships that their grandparents/parents had experienced) the ANC and their breakaway partners will remain in power.

White folks will never ever become a major power in African political life and who can blame the locals.

DbD the political resistance to the Cape Province making a go of it themselves will never ever happen.

You know it and they know it so it is pure desperation to even suggest it.

Unfortunately.

 
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