Three Red Flags on Amazon Shares...Mozart your imput please

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Jan 12, 2021, 15:00

In 2010 I had a positive gut feeling for this stock which I did not put my money where my mouth was, unfortunately.


I'm not an investor that enjoys high risk but have a fair understanding in buying value, irrespective of the market price because I use longer terms. Staggiing and trading shares is high risk tolerance.


I read about these 3 red flags on Amazon...has Amazon peaked or is there still enough oomph in them?


I see there are enough adds trying to entice investors...that normally is a bad sign...the sheep normally fall for that.


Perhaps it's worth a small investment. 


Are We at Peak Amazon?

Jan 12, 2021, 15:08

Are We at Peak Amazon?


Jan 12, 2021, 16:08

I don't know much about investment, but things are happening within the industry that will impact some of the big tech companies.
The US government are in talks about breaking up Amazon, Facebook and Google.

Some of past acquisitions may be reversed, where direct competitors have been purchased. 

Facebook may be forced to sell Instagram. Google might be forced to sell YouTube, and Amazon may be forced to sell a competitor they acquired. 

My guess is that these companies are going to decline in years to come, and might be at their peaks now.  Amazon will probably be hit less badly than Facebook and Google. 

They are all running into more and more red tape, and their fines for anti-competitive practices are increasing each year. Governments around the world are increasingly looking for ways to reestablish control of their own media. 

Improved privacy in technology, and more legislation will make advertising less effective. 

Apple has made it much more difficult for their users to be tracked across the internet. Facebook has taken them to court, but that will go nowhere. 

Jan 12, 2021, 16:41

Government interference in the industry is a big negative factor to consider, if that is indeed the case. Maybe Tesla is a better option...my portfolio is well balanced but I'm prepared to take about 5-10% in a more aggressive sector for longer term, ie 9-10 years.

What do you think Mozart...I'm not looking for your advice, that's forbidden just merely an insight into these respective markets...e-commerce, online shopping etc and of course the battery market, electric cars and silver as in the case of Tesla. It all makes just plain common sense. 

I also think the small car, clean air factor is the future because of population growth, space factor and of course the economical one as far as the consumer is concerned.

The other factor is, is the chaos worldwide in a downward spiral, I think it is...we all are vulnerable...but that will eventfully affect every asset class anyhow....property and gilts (govt/muninipal loans and debentures)are ironically the most risky assets in unstable SA.

Jan 12, 2021, 18:59

Hard to say Chabal. I think Amazon will continue to do fine in their traditional business it’s the cloud business that’s inscrutable. You might want to consider Mercadolibre the Latin American Amazon that has a much bigger household penetration opportunity. I’m more than 2x on this stock in a year.

Jan 12, 2021, 19:27

Makes sense...it's riding the trend in a continent that's developing in e-commerce, logistics etc.

It is sound and common-sense logic. I will certainly look further into it. The covid 19 crisis has introduced this trend and once introduced it will continue out of habit and convenience even when the crisis is over. I don't think the world will ever be the same although there will always be those (and I'm one of them that misses personal service and human contact) but I'm rather old fashioned in lots of respect.

Nevertheless this the way it will undoubtedly continue to trend...thanks for that. I believe thoroughly in diversification...that's the secret cornerstone of sound investment strategy.

I might use a divide between Mercadolibre  and Tesla in long term equities.

Do you know anything about Silver Mining Resources and where you can buy them as well?

Jan 12, 2021, 20:13

Tesla was a massive winner this last year.....and every road test shows it’s ahead of the competition. But there are longer term issues, a new battery technology about 10 years out and the brand equities of existing manufacturers translated into electric cars....eventually they are going to come up trumps. There was an announcement today that GM will provide electric vans to FedEx.


My strategy with Tesla is to continue selling after run ups, to keep my bait within bounds. Every  sale so far has been a loser, but the residual has done so well I don’t feel bad. 

An alternative to Tesla is Albemarle Corp, a major lithium miner that gives you an exposure to batteries whichever car maker succeeds. It’s up 138% since I bought it.....not Tesla returns but pretty handy with less risk.

Jan 12, 2021, 22:51

Your view on silver, we know lithium 

These silver stocks could benefit from the electric car revolution - Stockhead 

Jan 13, 2021, 02:36

I can’t add anything on silver sorry....not a metal I have studied.

Jan 13, 2021, 10:09

Back to electric car manufacturing in USA I read this.:

"We would also expect the 200,000-vehicle-per-automaker cap on the current US$7,500 incentive for electric vehicles to be removed and emissions standards for automotive OEMs to be tightened, meaning that our US electric-vehicle sales forecast also has close to 100% upside (to date, the US has been by far our lowest-growth electric-vehicle market);?this would be a tailwind for the diverse companies in the electric-vehicle supply chain, from makers of battery components to suppliers of sensors, software and power semiconductors "


 
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