This is basically thinking that the NATO countries are the center and only factor in dealing with global influence and outside of those member countries there is no need to take the rest of the world into account.
The country in decline in influence in the world is the USA whose poor and corrupt government is causing global instability.
Russia Who? They were that country that used to sell cheap energy.
@DumbMike,
I will clarify that NATO and our Democratic allies are the epitome of the civilised world,
We represent mankind's best chance. The third world'ers such as yourself do not have the same importance as we do. As such, we in fact do not need to take you into account with our decisions.
NATO & our allies first!
Good article...yes, Russia truely wasted an opportunity to put the cold war era behind them and integrate with the West...it chose to rather p!$$ it all away on a useless war they can't win. They might even be able to conquer Ukraine in the. medium run...unlikely as it seem, but in the end, they would still be the losers, because they have alienated the West and have exposed themselves as warmongers...and no country will remain conquered especially not one like Ukraine, so whatever gains they make now, will be temporary anyway...stupid waste of lives and other resources...and some fat cats in the West getting fatter...they're feeding the dragon they're supposed to be slaying.
Draad
I believe that it was not Russia that pissed away the opportunity to befriend the West - it was a situation where Russia was ostracized by the USA that caused the pissed away. You only have the look at the -
* the involvement of the USA in organizing and funding the coup in 2014 and the establishment of a puppet Government according to a public statement by the US Assistant Secretary of State to run the Ukraine in an effort to get Ukraine into NATO and the EU not the cause of the enmity between Russia and the West;
* the anti Russia press hysteria since 2015 that Russia interfered in the 2016 USA election - now proved to be based on lies by the Democratic Party not the truth at all - not a further cause of present enmity?
* the establishment of at least one major bio-lab in Odessa in 2018 and funding by the USA of another at least 26 Bio-Labs doing dangerous research on pathogens in Ukraine not causing enmity?
Russia was not entirely to blame for the present scenario as stated in the article - the above are just a few of the issues to be mentioned when it comes to enmity The USA has a corrupt system insofar as the Armaments Industry is concerned that they and the politicians involved through kickbacks benefit from wars in the world. This has happened virtually continuously and both Presidents Trueman and Eisenhower warned against it during and after the Korean War - but became more and more pressing leading to virtually continuous war situations since the second Iraq War and the Afghanistan debacle lasting 22 years. A new war was needed and was found in Ukraine. Although the matter could have been solved by negotiation on a number of occasions since 2014 the USA sabotaged each of those.
I am afraid no peaceful settlement will be possible with the present Regime in power in the USA, The Republican Party is divided about the issue - some of its members in Congress also benefit from kickback corruption involving the Armaments Industry - so the situation is indeed a major problem.
SB
I really laughed about your follwing statement:-
"I will clarify that NATO and our Democratic allies are the epitome of the civilised world,
We represent mankind's best chance."
Do you really know what is happening in the civilized West? The destruction of art and culture epitomized by the now Woke Culture - the opening of the Borders of countries and flooding in of millions of the scum from uncivilized countries - the destruction of nation-states and establishment of non-border world as propagated by the Ultra-Rich through the World Economic Forum and their media owned outlets are not promoting civilization - they are destroying it together with democracy, Being force-fed by the media you are promoting that destructive approach.
We do not at this stage promote mankind's best chance at present - we are aiming at the destruction of democracy in the world that is really mankind's best chance.
The destruction of art and culture epitomized by the now Woke Culture
I'm sorry how many cultural heritage and cultural institutions of Ukraine has Russia destroyed since it invaded Ukraine? For all your moaning about the Russian language been banned in Ukraine, where are you comments on Ukraine being banned from schools in the occupied territory and the burning of Ukrainian books?
the opening of the Borders of countries and flooding in of millions of the scum from uncivilized countries
Now Mike, I've always thought that underneath all that endless conspiracy rubbish you peddle you where at least half way decent person but this disgusting phrase is on the level with Beeno's vile posts. I'd wager the vast majority of people you refer to as scum are more civilized than you are.
Stav
Sorry - I was not really discussing Ukraine at this stage -- but the article involved and quoted above. I agree you would like to include that in the case of Ukraine. What cultural development was there historically in Ukraine after the Mongolians captured Kiev in the 13th century? The Ukraine was run by the Muslims - the Sultanate of the Crimea - the Polish-Lithuanian confederation, the Austrian Empire and after the 1770's by the Russian Empire. Those were the values that created whatever historic institutions and culture there was developed in Ukraine - it never was really a country called Ukraine form the 13th century until 1991. However, that does not justify the destruction of history and culture in Ukraine - I always condemned the present war and always support peace initiatives.
As to my statement on illegal migration I may have gone too far - but there is proof of opening up borders in the case of the flooding of 1,5 million refugees into the EU in 2015 which the EU tried to allocate to various member states by force - but Germany, France and Belgium ended up as the countries most effected. Belgium may soon have according to some sources a Muslim majority population,.
The second example is the opening of the USA border that allowed for control of the border by the Mexican cartels and the flooding of circa 7 million people into the country since Biden became President. Aside from that the cocaine and Fentanyl drugs are flowing into the country as well.
A third example is South Africa - by the end of the previous regime in 1994 there was already 8 million illegal migrants in SA making up at least 15% of the total population at the time. The matter got worse since then and the illegal migrants now make up about 16 million of the present SA population of 57 million people.
To my mind no country can handle that kind of situation without nasty consequences for the countries concerned.
Stav
Sorry - I was not really discussing Ukraine at this stage -- but the article involved and quoted above. I agree you would like to include that in the case of Ukraine. What cultural development was there historically in Ukraine after the Mormons captured Kiev in the 12th century? The Ukraine was run by the Muslims - the Sultanate of the Crimea - the Polish-Lithuanian confederation, the Austrian Empire and after the 1770's by the Russian Empire. Those were the values that created whatever historic institutions and culture there was developed in Ukraine - it never was really a country called Ukraine form the 13th century until 1991. However, that does not justify the destruction of history and culture in Ukraine - I always condemned the present war and always support peace initiatives.
As to my statement on illegal migration I may have gone too far - but there is proof of opening up borders in the case of the flooding of 1,5 million refugees into the EU in 2015 which the EU tried to allocate to various member states by force - but Germany, France and Belgium ended up as the countries most effected. Belgium may soon have according to some sources a Muslim majority population,.
The second example is the opening of the USA border that allowed for control of the border by the Mexican cartels and the flooding of circa 7 million people into the country since Biden became President. Aside from that the cocaine and Fentanyl drugs are flowing into the country as well.
A third example is South Africa - by the end of the previous regime in 1994 there was already 8 million illegal migrants in SA making up at least 1% of the total population at the time. The matter got worse since then and the illegal migrants now make up about 16 million of the present SA population of 57 million people.
To my mind no country can handle that kind of situation without nasty consequences for the countries concerned.
It’s true that the institutions in the US government found it hard to discard their old models and embrace Russia. There has always been political capital in denigrating the Russians, much as the British could never embrace the Boers after that embarrassing war.
But countries like Germany and Japan that were in similar positions after WW2 overcame those biases by becoming responsible countries and focusing on their economies. Russia fell naturally back into their bully role, because they never accepted defeat and still harbor global ambitions.
And the Ukraine debacle was enabled by the lack of internal opposition and the personality cult that has built around Putin. A tragedy that the West has some culpability for….but more in the guise of a good parent not understanding just how much trouble their kid could get into.
Maybe it was the Hollywood culture of movies making the Communist Russians the target of bullies and worse during the Cold War that stoke the animosity against Russia - which continued after the Cold War ended in 1991.
There were negotiations since 2015 about the future of Ukraine aimed at stopping the civil war raging in that country with the USA providing massive support in both finances and armament aid to the Ukraine Government and the Russians provided aid to the Eastern Ukrainians. Those negotiations guaranteed the future of Ukraine under a revised constitution allowing for a Democratic Government to replace the discarded 1991 Constitution following the 2014 coup.
Those negotiations were agreed to at the Minsk agreement of 2015 and Russia agreed to it as negotiation partner. Instead of supporting the agreement the USA actively undermined it. The Obama Administration poured billions of dollars in support of the Kiev Government and had the financial muscle to force the Ukraine Government to accept the agreement they were signatories to as well - but the exact opposite happened. After the departure of Obama the Democrats went on a lying campaign to undermine the Trump administration - especially since he started with investigations into corruption in Ukraine by the Biden family and if followed through would have proven corrupt activities in Ukraine by Clinton, Pelosi and Schiff as well. In the end Trump did nothing about the situation in Ukraine - but the Civil War in Ukraine continued on a rather limited basis. Up to the end of 2015 there were around 14 000 casualties in that war - all of which was in Eastern Ukraine and nearly all of which were Russian speaking civilians. That figure in the period 2016 to 2021 dropped to just under 5 000 - mostly killed in the areas controlled by the Kiev Government and virtually all entailing Russian speaking civilians.
A week before the actual invasion took place the Russian and German Governments called a meeting to try and settle the situation peacefully, The basic agreement reached by the negotiating parties was that the 2015 Minsk agreement should be implemented in full. Biden then in a speech said the upcoming war in Ukraine is the means the US would sue to replace Putin as President of Russia. Biden thus sabotaged the new effort to find a solution to the Ukraine problem.
After Ukraine launched the invasion Turkey set up a new negotiations process and it was agreed that Russia would withdraw its forces from threatening Kiev - which happened as a starting point for further negotiations. Russia agreed to that and the forces were withdrawn. The negotiations were again based on implementation of the Minsk agreement. The US Government then instructed the Ukraine Government to withdraw from the negotiations and the war moved to Eastern Ukraine. In the meantime before the invasion the Ukraine Government arrested all the Russian speaking members of the Ukraine Parliament despite the fact that they supported the motion to condemn any potential attack on Ukraine by Russia. After the talks initiated by Turkey ended the Ukraine Government banned all opposition Parties in Ukraine from functioning and banned also the functioning of the main Orthodox Church in Ukraine with absolute press censorship being in place. The situation is that the Ukraine Government implemented a dictatorship in Ukraine - which is unacceptable and which the USA Government and the media totally ignored.
The War in Ukraine will only stop when the USA stop undermining peace negotiations on the issue and start supporting peaceful settlement of the Ukraine situation. Whether at present the Minsk agreement can be implemented is totally out. The present Ukraine dictatorship is not going to support the requirement that a new Constitution for Ukraine be compiled and voted on. The fact is that a major corruption scandal involving the US aid to the Ukraine Government erupted and the Ukraine Minsiter of Defense was supposed to be fired - but that brought the corruption involved to near to the Ukraine Government and instead the commanding officer in charge of the military force fighting the war in Eastern Ukraine was fired. That would obviously undermine the Ukraine war effort in Eastern Ukraine.
Did the scandal only involve the Ukraine politicians and army members - or did it involve US politicians as well. The FTX scandal if investigated properly will implicate US politicians as well. The House approved $1 billion dollars in budgetary support for Ukraine after the military aid was already in progress. Three days after the approval was given Pelosi and Schiff was in Kiev to deal with the handling of that money. In the end the Ukraine Government invested money from the grant in FTX - from where $70 million went to the Democratic Party to assist in the funding of the 2022 election and $230 000 went to Senator Romney. The whole of the rest of the total $5 billion investment in FTX vanished into thin air. The case is being handled by the FBI and they have arrested the owner of FTX in the Bahamas and he was repatriated to the USA. He is out on bail at present after two people - whose names are a State secret - paid the $5 million bail for him. Who were they and why did they pay that kind of money? The whole saga is now on hold by the FBI and like the Hunter Biden laptop issue no progress will be made by the FBI and in the end the criminal running the Ponzi scheme could be Scot free.
blobbok
Senior player
3612 posts
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/will-russias-global-influence-continue-to-decline
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and its failure to achieve a swift, decisive victory, has undermined its enduring strategic objectives of maintaining stability and national security—and central to this is respect as a great power. From the Kremlin’s perspective there are two wars taking place: the one between Russia and Ukraine, and a broader civilisational struggle between Russia and the collective West. The future is likely to be confrontational and complex. Even if (and when) fighting in Ukraine comes to an end, Russia is going to continue to be a very difficult neighbour – both for the West and those states in its neighbourhood.
There has long been a debate about whether the Russian leadership – in particular the president and his inner circle – has a ‘grand strategy’ for the country. Is there a long-term strategy with grand strategic objectives, or has the focus been solely on maintaining a grip on power? Over the years, a raft of formal policy documents have set out national objectives and ambitions, presenting a strategic vision of the country’s development and future direction. The evidence suggests that Putin has had a clear idea of what he wants to achieve since he came to power in 2000 – indeed, despite enduring surprise in the West at Russia’s actions in recent years, there has actually been remarkable consistency and continuity. The Kremlin’s strategic objectives have focused on stabilising Russia, avoiding instability and chaos, regaining great power status and maintaining its primacy in the former Soviet republics on Russia’s periphery. The ways and means of achieving these ends have been adapted to suit the context and exploit opportunities. Yet, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has not only undermined these ends; it may well have inflicted irreparable damage on the country’s ambitions.
The isolation of Moscow
One of the most obvious changes is the abrupt rupture in Russia’s relations with the West. Ties have been severed and the country has become increasingly isolated within the international arena, undermining its economic development as access to key markets have been cut off. Prior to the invasion, Russia was deeply integrated into the global economy; now, long-term problems are building up, as sanctions begin to bite.
The unexpectedly poor performance of the Russian armed forces has damaged the aura of invincibility that many in the West had bestowed on the country’s military and its leadership. If Russia is perceived to be weak and unable to protect its position, as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, other actors may strive to further their own positions, which could lead to a change in the constellation of power across the post-Soviet space. Russia’s aspiration to be accepted as a global great power is dependent upon its ability to prevent strategic rivals usurping its power. After all, if a state is unable to maintain dominance in its own ‘backyard’ it is implausible that it will be able to exert influence on a global scale
Russia leverages its global influence
Russia’s power within Europe (and the West more broadly), and even vis-à-vis China, may be perceived to be dwindling, but it has continued to seek to build and consolidate relations with the non-Western world, exploiting power vacuums triggered by US and Western withdrawal or inaction. States such as Venezuela and Cuba have been the most vocal in their support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, blaming the US and NATO for the crisis. Vladimir Putin has sought to position Russia as an anti-colonial power, appealing to the Global South to join its ‘’emancipatory, anti-colonial movement’’ against Western ‘colonisers’.
The split with the West will not end any time soon
There should be no expectation that the Russian government will change its current course of action. Putin has acknowledged that the war may be protracted and there is determination in Moscow to stay the course in Ukraine. The war is likely to be disastrous for Russia in the long-term, but Russian officials believe they are in a fight with the West and need to fight. Moscow is likely calculating that Western interest and support for Ukraine, as well as its unity, will run out far before its natural and military resources.
This feature is adapted from an article published in War in Ukraine: One Year On - a collection of articles to mark the first year of the war.
Its growing presence across Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere is an attempt to expand its global influence, using a wide range of tools ranging from arms sales to energy deals, diplomacy, and political and military advisers. However, it is unclear how enduring Russia’s relationships are with the Global South: its influence is premised in many respects on Russia’s role as a niche security provider rather than on an enduring Russian presence, with relationships driven primarily by weapons sales and military training.
China is still supporting Russia, but not explicitly. Both have worked together in the UN, using economic incentives to keep Global South countries on side and on the same page regarding toning down human rights provisions in UN peacekeeping mandates, but Russia’s ejection from the UN Human Rights Council means it loses a valuable means to carve out alliances with like-minded states on human rights issues
This feature is adapted from an article published in War in Ukraine: One Year On - a collection of articles to mark the first year of the war.