You need to LOG IN to reply.

Will Trump win in 2020?

Forum » Beenos Trumpet » Will Trump win in 2020?

May 12, 2019, 05:15

Mozart


There  is a lot of talk about the 2020 presidential election in the media  and all kinds of allegations made as  to what will happen and I had an analysis done and would like to hear your views on the issue:-

The States which swung  to Trump in 2016  

The obvious  talk is about the following states  which went  from  the Democrats to the Republicans in 2016 and the situation is that I looked  at the majorities  of  Obama in 2012 and those of Trump in 2016 - thus determining the swing votes  in the relevant  States:-

Florida                                   187 222

Iowa                   `                 239 241

Michigan                              460 017

Ohio                                      613 113

Pennsylvania                     354 136

Wisconsin                            235 737

The fact is that other than Florida and to a lesser extent Iowa  the above States are known as the Rust Belt States  where due to economic policies the majority of blue colour workers have seen their standard of living going down over the last 20 years.   The  workers  saw no real difference between previous  candidates  and  they saw no reason to vote Republicans who were as  bad as the Democrats were – so they either did not vote in the past  or switch their votes from the Democratic to Republican Party because they saw Trump differently as is evident from the following:-

Michigan           -   voted  for the DP since 1992

Pennsylvania    -  voted for the DP since  1992

Wisconsin         -  voted for the DP since  1988

Will the blue collar workers lose faith in Trump in 2020?  Has he helped them at all?   It seems that unemployment is down and there was for the first time in decades a real  increase in their disposable incomes.   If that trend continues I think it will not happen .   What do you think about it?

Is the Blue Wall of States protecting Democratic candidates broken for years to come?

The States  that voted  for the Democratic Party in 2016

There were only a few states  that voted for Clinton where the majorities in 2016 were higher than what it was in 2012:

California         -    1 254 848

Illinois              -           60 418         

Maryland        -           36 784

Massachusetts        171 327

Oregon                         3 439

Virginia                       62 732

Washington               56 524

In all other  Democratic  Party States majorities have decreased as is evident by the following examples:-

Connecticut                45 833

Hawai                          47 599               

Maine                           92 858

Minnesota                181 143

New Hampshire         36 875

New York                   258 720

Rhode Island               50 493

it looks to me that the following DP States will be the key battleground states in 2020:-

Maine                         22 172  majority in 2016

Minnesota                 44 081  majority in 2016

Nevada                      27 202   majority in 2016

New Hampshire         2 776   majority in 2016

The decrease of Republican  Party majorities   

Although in virtually all States where the Republicans won in 2016 – some by large percentages -  the Republican votes have increased in a major way, but the following have had substantial reduction  in majorities:-

Georgia                      83 720

Texas                        474 229

Conclusions

Seems  to me that Trump will win with ease in 2020 and  that the opinion polls is not reflecting the situation  as now propagated in opinion polls.    

 


May 12, 2019, 15:44

Mike how can the demonrats regain the WH with their crazy candidates and policies. The demonrats are so anti American it's breath taking.

Look the only worries are voter fraud on a massive level and something we don't know about as of now.

May 12, 2019, 16:52

Beeno

There is one condition though - the undermining of Trump by the Republican Party establishment must stop.   In Wisconsin the criticism of Trump in 2016 by the local Republican establishment  was worse than that of the Democrats.   

The same was the case with the Bush's  who said they would never vote for Trump and there were others as well.   

I think that some Republicans have seen the benefits - but some will continue trying to undermine Trump because he showed them up as useless in representing the people and not themselves.  The one major cog in that wheel was  McCain - but he is dearly departed and the rot will perhaps stop.   He had a major role in dealing with the  Steele report - if he reported that he got a copy of the report and did not play together with the FBI on that one - the matter would not have reached the level it did,    McCain pretended to be a Republican but in reality he was a Democrat in disguise.        

May 13, 2019, 11:16

“He had a major role in dealing with the Steele report - if he reported that he got a copy of the report and did not play together with the FBI on that one - the matter would not have reached the level it did, McCain pretended to be a Republican but in reality he was a Democrat in disguise. “

Not a chance that he was either a major role player in the dossier, or that he was a RINO. As for the dossier, he was just a convenient “messenger”, a stooge. He was also a lifelong Republican. The fact that he opposed Trump didn’t make him less Republican. He was a crap Republican but a Republican none the less. There are/were many of those.

May 13, 2019, 11:44

McStain was of course a globalist Rino. Given Trump's huge 92% GOP approval rating these Rinos will be toast unless they can deceive the voters.

What though is Lindsey Graham up to. Given his past his now very pro Trump stance is suspicious. Hope it's genuine of course. 


May 13, 2019, 11:46

Song bird McStain was part of the establishment Globalist Uni party selling out America.

May 13, 2019, 16:45

A Republican in name only - he used the Party to enhance his own interests politically,  Just a question how does a Republican Senator endorse a Democrat candidate (Feingold) in the Wisconsin Senate election in 2016?   

And handing the Steele report to the FBI is crazy - if he was a true Republican  he would have handed the Steele report to his Party leadership  for further investigation and if it was found that there was any truth in the report - paid for by Clinton - there would never have been the 2 year-story that caused major political upheaval in the USA, 

And his last action was to vote against an improved medicare plan of Trump to clean up the Obama Care economic disaster.    He kept his intention secret and when asked indicated he was supporting it - but then voted against the proposal.

I think he was nothing more than a tool of the Democrats in the Senate and fact is his daughter was at times employed by CNN and MSNBC with Maddow as a presenter,   She obviously was  in cahoots with her father all the time.         

May 19, 2019, 15:31

I was not trying to defend McCain. I just do not agree that he was somewhat of an “undercover” Dem. He was just massively anti Trump and he was hellbent on stabbing him in the back. He was so blinded by his hate for Trump that he sabotaged his own party to get to Trump. 

The Republicans actually have a new “McCain” in Michigan's Justin Amash. 

As for the dossier, McCain played no role in it. As I said, he was just a stooge of the Dems who exploited his blind hate for Trump. They actually deliberately targeted him as the ideal “mule” to “deliver” the dossier to divert attention away from the Dem involvement in it. 

In any case, I actually forgot about this thread and rediscovered it while I was looking for an appropriate thread to post this clip:


May 19, 2019, 17:01

Ceradyne

I have 4 Jack Russells - they are nothing bar terrorists, but excellent watch dogs,  

May 19, 2019, 17:17

Jack Russells and Fox Terriers. We always had a Fox Terrier in SA.

May 19, 2019, 19:21

Great song that has some fine insights into demorats. 

May 19, 2019, 19:42

I always knew that Yanks were a relatively stupid nation but I didn't ever think they were stupid enough to vote a clown like Bozo in as their president.


To even think they might give him a second term means they'd have to be literally twice as stupid as I think they are now. Not sure that's possible.

May 19, 2019, 19:56

Ja Rooi, Orange Man terrible! Lowest unemployment ever...economy booming...hell I'm sure the Yanks are tired of winning 

May 19, 2019, 20:24

“Posted by: Rooinek (8202 posts) May 19, 2019, 19:42

I always knew that Yanks were a relatively stupid nation but I didn't ever think they were stupid enough to vote a clown like Bozo in as their president.

To even think they might give him a second term means they'd have to be literally twice as stupid as I think they are now. Not sure that's possible.”

And then you have South Africans who voted in Zuma and then Ramaphosa.

Be that as it may, I think the American learnt what could happen when they voted in Obama who did exactly fokol bar giving away billions to Iran, were involved in one regime change after the other, was a farking war monger, did not even try to do something about NK, who thought that higher GDP was impossible, changed laws on his own, lied to the people about their medical aid, actually colluded with Russia himself, ....... should we go on?

May 19, 2019, 20:37

Ceradunce, if you can't see that Cyril Ramaphosa is a huge improvement on Jacob Zuma then I don't see much point debating politics with you.

May 19, 2019, 22:03

The only difference between Ramaphosa and Zuma is that CR is a bit brighter than Zuma and will probably get away with more than Zuma got away with but, IMO, he is just as skelm as Zuma, if not more. I have never trusted him. Even from long before he was big in politics, when he was still the SG of Cosatu.

May 19, 2019, 22:12

@Rooinek, in addition to the above I could add this. There was another trade unionist who was regarded by many whites, myself included, as probably straight from the devil himself. Jay Naidoo. I have however changed my opinion of him a great lot. He left the ANC and politics because of the corruption and dishonesty.

Do yourself a favour and read up on how he left politics and the ANC and what he has been up to. IMO, Naidoo is the kind of person the ANC needs at the moment but they won’t have him and he certainly won’t gel with the current lot.

May 19, 2019, 22:23

Ceradunce, don't be telling me to do myself a favour and learn more about people who I've actually met and chatted with (Jay Naidoo's daughter and my daughter were in the same year at school and on debating teams for opposing schools and we spent many evenings having a smoke and a chat between speakers) . . . rather contemplate your utter ignorance and stupidity in even mentioning Jacob Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa in the same breath.


I'm no fan of Ramaphosa . . . but seriously, to bracket the two speaks of massive ignorance and naivete.

Massive!

May 19, 2019, 23:00

Oh sorry, I forgot that everybody knows that it is common knowledge that you know Jay Naidoo. Do you agree with me then that Jay Naidoo has become an outstanding individual?

As for Ramaphosa and Zuma, i find it interesting that first you lambast me about what I proposed you do regarding Naidoo and then you have a fit about me bracketing CR and Zuma but let me reiterate. I believe that CR is just as crooked as Zuma, if not more, and that is the reason why I bracket them.

You are welcome, though, to convince me that CR is a straight shooter, if you can.

May 19, 2019, 23:32

Cyril and the rest of the NEC of the ANC did not make any attemt at stopping Zuma looting the country for the last 10 years. Juma is stil walking free...it does not look as if they are serious about cleaning up any corruption. 

May 19, 2019, 23:44

"Do you agree with me then that Jay Naidoo has become an outstanding individual?"


I actually found Jay Naidoo to be a self-important twat who loved the sound of his own voice, didn't really listen to anything anyone else had to say and was quick to accept a cigarette but never once offered one of his own . . . but the reason I mentioned him wasn't to sing his praises, it was to convey to you that if you're going to name drop in a particularly condescending and patronising manner, it's probably a good idea to first find out if the other person knows the name-dropped third-party person better than you do.

I didn't say Ramaphosa was a "straight shooter" or anything like that. That's you trying to manipulate what I did say to suit your "argument". All I said was that Ramaphosa was a big improvement on Jacob Zuma. He could be a liar, a thief and a rapist with a Std 8 education and he'd still be better than Zuma. Implying that I now think Ramaphosa is a "straight shooter" is disingenuous at best and a barefaced lie in a tougher school than this.

Oh and if you think I'm having a "fit" in this little discussion, you should probably avoid me in real life because you'll burst into tears and run for the hills.

I mean, really!

May 20, 2019, 00:52

"Ceradunce, if you can't see that Cyril Ramaphosa is a huge improvement on Jacob Zuma then I don't see much point debating politics with you."

Glad I'm not the only one who gave up on debating SA politics with him, matter of fact I did so a long time ago when he sang the praises of the National Party for building 50 houses for the oppressed. Unfortunately It takes more than a rubber to erase  racial predujice.


May 20, 2019, 09:33

Ramaphosa is a huge improvement..... Hahahahaha.

That’s as funny as saying that Rassie is a huge improvement.....

May 20, 2019, 13:14

Let me put this straight factions in the ANC realized that Zuma was so dishonest and was so bad the countrywas going backwards fast,   They had to find ways and means to stop the rot before it destroys the ANC  totally.   The only way that could be done was to get rid of Zuma well before the recent election.   

Even though Ramaphosa was a partner in Zuma's misgovernment of the county -  he advocated a change of approach and managed to get elected as the leader of the ANC  replacing Zuma,   There were to ways to deal with the crisis facing the ANC, namely - 

*   to keep the Zumanoids and some of the Zuma fellow-crooks  in the name of party unity; and

*   set up Commissions of Inquiry to deal with state capture issues,

Three of those bodies dealt with lower level individuals working in public institutions, while the Zondo Commission opens up some real rot in the case of Cabinet Ministers and other senior politicians,   

For me it is clear - they got rid of the rot within some state institutions - but the rot goes much deeper on all levels of Government.   There  are in fact three main questions remaining, namely -

 *    will the ANC get rid of its crooked General Secretary or not;

*    will Ramaphosa act to deal with people looting both provincial and local government; and

*    will Ramaphosa kick the most obvious fraudsters and  incompetents  out of his Cabinet?

I am afraid the jury is out on that one.

I must emphasize that  the ANC has factions from within that makes action by Ramaphosa virtually impossible,   As one of his Ministers said "We all have small skeletons in our cupboards".   What small skeletons does Ramaphosa have?,     

          

 
You need to Log in to reply.
Back to top