Iran: The Art of No Deal

Forum » Mikes Gripes » Iran: The Art of No Deal

May 11, 2026, 13:08

This is the worst global oil disruption ever. There is no sign of a peace agreement. What Iran is offering is far inferior to the Obama deal, so Trump will never accept it. This bumbling fool never considered that Iran could easily close the Strait.


Countries around the world are running out of Kerosene, and it has driven up the price. If there is one way to screw up the global economy, it is energy. It is an input to every economic activity.



May 11, 2026, 13:27

Operation Epic Fail.


The most pointless, ill-conceived, poorly executed and harmful campaign in living memory.


Bozo was already the worst president in US history. Operation Epic Fail only serves to confirm it . . . and yet the self-worshipping clown is still planning on plastering his stupid name all over any building he can find, adding his signature to bank notes, his ugly face to passports and having golden statues of himself erected.



May 11, 2026, 14:04

But but but... Europe!

May 11, 2026, 15:12

At least America benefits from Trump's actions. The shareholders will be very happy. Although the midterms are getting close, the majority are now facing higher energy prices, and inflation is back again.


The idependents have turned on Trump, but the Trumpanzee species will always be loyal to its master.


American energy exports—particularly oil products and crude—have significantly increased following the Iran war that began on February 28, 2026.


Export Records

U.S. oil product exports (including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) hit a record 8.2 million barrels per day in early May 2026, up 23% from the prior year, as Europe and Asia sought alternatives to disrupted Middle East supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude exports also surged to 5.2 million barrels per day, nearly making the U.S. a net exporter for the first time since 1943.

Production Boost

Producers like Diamondback Energy ramped up output due to higher oil prices, while ports such as Corpus Christi saw exports rise from 2.2 to 2.5 million barrels daily.

This shift filled gaps from ~20% of global oil stalled by the conflict.

Domestic Impact

Despite export gains, U.S. gas prices rose sharply (national average over $4/gallon by April), adding billions in consumer costs amid crude prices exceeding $100/barre


May 11, 2026, 15:32

Pity the POTUS who takes over from the useless peanut, who would want to be straddled with high inflation and a huge deficit?

May 12, 2026, 04:14

Dunno if he was a star politician but I appreciate his opinions ... esp on Trump & Iran


a man in a suit and white shirt smiles for the camera

william hague

Deals with Iran don’t come easy: I should know

new

The nuclear deal in 2015 took months of talks — now the world is set for years more economic pain than Trump grasps

William Hague

Monday May 04 2026, 7.26pm BST, The Times


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Every time I hear President Trump give an upbeat assessment of talks with Iran — “they’re making an offer”, they are “very reasonable”, “they’d like to work a deal”, “they called this morning” — I wonder whether he has ever met any Iranians. Anyone who has been involved in negotiations with them, as I was as foreign secretary in 2013, knows that a combination of pride, cunning, complex decision-making and natural brinkmanship makes doing a deal with them a slow and exhausting business.

It was in November 2013 in Geneva that we achieved a breakthrough in the nuclear talks with Iran. It had its comical aspects: we had to point out to the Russians before they opened champagne that the Iranians didn’t drink. But it was an important moment, in which Iran agreed to freeze nuclear enrichment in return for a freeze on new sanctions, and that talks on a full deal — which later became the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) — would begin. The final deal took another 20 painstaking months. It limited Iran’s nuclear activities, opened them up to rigorous international inspection and in return lifted sanctions on Iranian oil.

The JCPOA was much criticised by US Republicans — it happened under President Obama — for not being good enough and was unilaterally abandoned by Trump when he came to power. In reality, the only alternative to it was repeated wars, as events have now proved. Yet it was only arrived at with extraordinary perseverance. The deal happened because the US and Iran had secret backchannel talks allowing them to speak privately to each other, hosted by Oman. It also needed the steady building up of trust, ably led by John Kerry, the US secretary of state, and Cathy Ashton, the EU high representative. Even then it took a final marathon session of talks lasting 18 days, covering minute details of nuclear technology, to seal the deal.

  1. Trump says US ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz

This experience puts into perspective the hopes in the White House for a quick deal to conclude the war. The chances of a rapid and successful negotiation remain small. True, the Iranians are under the intense pressure of the US blockade of their oil exports. Monday’s announcement by Trump of “Project Freedom”, to escort stranded ships out of the Gulf, is probably designed to increase that pressure, since it will force Iran either to climb down by allowing that to happen or to open fire and invite fresh air strikes.

All other factors, however, point to a protracted process that will take the world economy towards very serious shortages of oil, fertiliser and helium — vital for semiconductor manufacturing — within the next two months. Unlike 2013-15, there is no trust whatsoever between the two sides, seemingly no backchannel between Washington and Tehran, no help from Russia (which is helping sustain the Iranians), and no time to get into the details of nuclear issues — which in any case Iran currently refuses to discuss. Many business and political leaders, led into wishful thinking by Trump’s optimism, are underestimating the possibility that no deal can be done with Iran in these circumstances.

It is hard to tell, of course, how intense the pressure on the Iranian leaders might be from their dire economic situation and their inability to export oil. But it is not so hard to tell what they are thinking. In the West, we find it hard to look at the world from their point of view. They are ruthless murderers — the war has left the extremists of the revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) more completely in charge in Tehran. They represent a group that our government has agreed to ban in Britain — and after the latest antisemitic attacks ministers should get on with that immediately.

  1. Trump hints at bigger military withdrawal from Germany

Criminal and despotic the Iranian leaders may be, but they are not stupid. We must force ourselves to see the world as it looks to them, particularly Major General Ahmad Vahidi of the IRGC, who seems to have the whip hand in determining their policy. Are they thinking they must do a quick deal, like Venezuela, to save themselves from further attack even if that allows Trump to claim a victory? No, they most certainly are not.

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They are probably thinking the following: that continued tension and threat of war helps them consolidate their power internally; that a protracted diplomatic process gives them a chance to repair their military readiness; that the pressure on Trump from soaring oil prices ahead of midterm elections will bite before any decisive crunch for themselves; that Trump is clearly reluctant to authorise a resumption of war because it will not resolve anything; that their regime has survived massive air strikes with its nuclear material intact and it can survive again; that they cannot trust the US after being attacked in the middle of the previous talks; that there is no point doing any deal unless Trump can stop Israel attacking them in the future; and that they would only give up their leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a final concession when they have tested US resolve to the limit — which will take weeks or months.

The Iranians will also be emboldened that Trump has steadily downgraded his war aims from “unconditional surrender” on March 6 to seeking a deal now. They will have read the news report last week that US intelligence agencies have been tasked with analysing what would happen if the president simply declared victory and pulled back from the whole conflict. They will have noted that when the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said last week that America is being humiliated, he struck a very raw nerve in the White House.

  1. ‘Trump effect’ drives more Americans to seek a home in Britain

The evidence that this is what they are thinking is that it is consistent with what they are doing. Iran is keeping Trump interested in a deal by sending a peace proposal through Pakistan, but only to negotiate in phases and maintaining their right to nuclear enrichment, knowing he cannot yet accept that. A phased agreement is indeed a possible way forward, to build some trust over time. But it would require detailed and imaginative proposals to free up the Strait, compromise on the nuclear issue and phase the release from sanctions.

That is unlikely to happen in short order. Very uncomfortable concessions would be needed by both the US and Iran. It would be prudent now to prepare for a bigger impact on inflation, global growth, food supplies and other supply chains than is generally expected. In the end a deal can be done that involves limits on Iran’s nuclear programme with international supervision along with the staged lifting of sanctions. The tragedy is that this is what we agreed in 2013-15, without resort to war. And even in those easier circumstances, it took longer than anyone expected.




May 12, 2026, 07:41

Tx BB for an excellent post,I wish Trump would read it.......not that it would make a difference to the bombastic and childish nature of the moron.

May 12, 2026, 22:04

So were are back to Trump ending Iran as a civilisation.

Iran have countered saying they will accelerate their nuclear program to create a bomb.


Jet fuel reserves around the world are running out, so it looks like many holidays are going to be cancelled.


May 12, 2026, 22:07

...or it aren't...

 
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