Oil Prices: $62.54 to $108.78

First, we had the imbecile Putin damage the global prices of energy when he invaded Ukraine. Now we have Trump and Israel screwing up global prices. It has almost doubled. LNG has also increased in price because its energy locations are getting blown up.

At the current trajectory, it could become triple the price.

It shows how dangerous it is for Europe to have oil sanctiions against Russia - which they break regularly anyway - coupled to instabiliy in he ME.

The effect of the prices in the USA is minimal - sine hey do not need to import oil from either. The Ayatollah arse-licking countries in Europe are badly effected since - if they do not buy oil from Russia - it is dependent on the ME for oil imports,

They are not prepared to do anything against Iran promoting terrorism and civil wars worldwide as well as developing nucleasr armaments as long as they get oil from the ME. In the USA political instability and outtright corruption by the Biden Autopen Regime led to unlawful support of the A yatollah rgime by the corupt U S Presidency.

The present situation is catastrophic for the EU countries, When Iranian armed Houthi's attacked cargo carriying ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden damaged the oil trade of Europe in 2025, they ran to the he USA to protect the shipping. The USA moved two warships to he area and wiped out the attacks in four days by bombing the Houthi installations in Yeman. Boats used by the Houthi's and Somalians to attacking ships were also been destroyed, Unlike in the case of Venezuela boats destroyed was not "fishing boats" as claimed by the fake media - so self-interest has aways been put ahead of real future threats.

Unlike under the Biden regime when oil from the USA strategic oil were corruptly sold to China and imports of oil - not necessary in the period 2018 to 2020 - was resumed by the Biden-Autopen corruption resumed, But in fact the USA do not need any importation of oil and that makes the present oil prizes immaterial insofar as the USA is concerned.

The present situation is vbad for th e NA TO cou ntries and they will doubtlessly startin g buying more oil from Russia and blame the U SA fr t heoor present vows,

So is it not time to stop arse-licking by European countries of Putin and the Ayatollah and start looking at how world stability can be restored? The biggest potential threat to NATO is not from Russia - but the empire the Ayatollah Regime wants to establish in the ME and African xcountries - but the NATO leadership is only interested in short term survival and not long term self-protection.

The farce is that the country with the strong est amy - after the USA - is Turkey and Turkey and Egypt are - other than the US A - he only countries trying to get stabilityback in the ME and North Africa - while NA TO countries pretend they are beyond protecting their long term interests,

By the weay SA also ets its oil from Iran nd today the town of Riversdale has been hit by a petrol shortage - assuming that it aplies to all S A cities and towns.. I do not have money available before 27 March for bulk shopping and hope that it would not affect the situation too badly before that date. So SA is in the same bad-loss situation as the EU countries are, SA is however in a slighty better situation - since they can get oil directly from Russia and not through third parties, In the meantime the Russians are laughing all the way to the bank insofar as long as the present situation exists.

. .

DumbMike, fact America is the largest oil producer in the world, but they still import a lot of oil.

There are different types of oil that are from different places in the world. America mostly produces light oil as a result of fracking.

The price of oil is going up all over the world. Obviously, Europe should ban Russian oil and gas.

Visser, I hope you have some dry powder waiting to put in a short.

I'll be using my gambling fund and going in with an irresponsibly big leverage short at some point.

What are you laughing at, ButtPlug? It is not just Europe that will have higher energy prices. The global price increases.

Plum, weren't you the one saying oil wouldn't go up again when it was on $87?

Nope, I'm expecting it be volatile, kind of a perfect trading range between 80 and 110. 150 is possible but if it does go there, sell everything you own and short the living shit out of the price because I promise you that is what everybody else is gonna do.

Right now, traders are overbuying good news and overselling bad news, as one would expect given the circumstances. Actually let me look at the chart quickly...

Above is the daily chart, each candle represents the opening and closing prices for the day. The thin line protruding from the top and bottom are the highest and lowest prices for that day.

Correction; it was late when I made the above - this is the 5 day chart for oil. Doesn't really change the point but have to be honest and admit I provided the wrong chart.

Look toward the end of the chart, see how aggressively the high gets sold and how quickly the dump gets bought up. To me that indicates a short term trading range has been established.

The trend is obviously up and that indicates higher, but it's also parabolic and that indicates a fast dump when a dump does come. The $120ish price from 2022 is a big resistance zone. One which could be broken on the back of some terrible news in the current conflict. The moment it goes over 120 I'll be shorting it to 95 because at that point, even if it goes up to 130-140, it's gonna dump aggressively after, probably back to 80ish, but I'll have made my 20%.

That's my analysis at a glance.

Putin caused massive inflation when he attacked Ukraine, and now it appears the same thing is going to happen.

Apparently the biggest Gas field in the world that was hit yesterday could take 3-5 years to get back to what it was. Around 20% of it was destroyed.

Fake news.

Inflation was already skyrocketing...

Here is a worst case scenario for you, Visser, since we're talking about inflation...

5 years from now...

1) Large swathes of white collar jobs are lost due to AI replacing people

2) Those employees have historically been AAA rated mortgage customers

3) They have to liquidate assets and stocks to survive and pay their mortgages

4) The US house market is currently 3 times the size of what it was back in 2007/8

5) Governments are forced to print money but the amount they are forced to print causes irrevocable inflation

6) The world's economy collapses.

Holy shit...the American's are talking about removing sanctions on some Iranian oil exports to ease the cost of energy crisis they caused by attacking Iran. You could not make this up.

Looked at the oil price today and though I'd share the quick analysis i did. Just some lunch time fun.

Seems my trading range prediction is playing out.

The highs are continuing to be sold very aggressively.

It's only been a couple of weeks since this move began, daily charts aren't the greatest to work off, and with two weeks of data one can only do so much.

To be honest though, this is exactly how i would have seen the oil price reacting to the Iran conflict - A big initial move, sold off aggressively, people buying up dips and then selling highs and ultimately a trading range being formed. I've plotted what i think that range likely is(in purple) on the chart below as well as when one should short(in green). Ultimately, an ascending triangle was formed, as drawn on the chart, and it broke down, which they normally do. Will be interesting to see where price bounces over the next few days.

Let's see how that plays out and I'll continue to update the chart if the price keeps moving as aggressively in both directions.

What's interesting is that the price touched $92 today and was bought back up to $100 quite quickly. That indicates some strength.

Oh, price is on the right of the image...

"Holy shit...the American's are talking about removing sanctions on some Iranian oil exports to ease the cost of energy crisis they caused by attacking Iran. You could not make this up."

Sanctions only drives the price up. Iran sells it at a discount to BRICKS...but still sell it while it drives up the open market price ...the sanctions doesn't help at all...I said weeks ago it should be lifted...the logical choice.

Fake news.

Inflation was already skyrocketing...

The line should be slightly more to the left.

The Ukraine war contributed to inflation and then it kept it high, effectively replacing the original causes of the inflation.

I disagree.

Covid saw US M2 rise by $5-6 trillion. The biggest money print in history.

Inflation was skyrocketing prior to the war.

...because the war didn't mark the magical turning point where inflation began trending down being used to say that the war caused inflation or kept it high is frankly laughable LMAO

FYI For the majority of the war, inflation has been trending down.

Look at the graph for God sake

...because the war didn't mark the magical turning point where inflation began trending down being used to say that the war caused inflation or kept it high is frankly laughable LMAO

I'm sorry I'll take the word of economists over you any day of the week. It had a major impact on global inflation and in the US in 2022 and 2023 and even had some lingering affects into 2024.

FYI For the majority of the war, inflation has been trending down.

Look at the graph for God sake

Tending down doesn't mean it wasn't having an effect, it slowed the rate of inflation decline.

Majority of the war, that graph just extends a year.

kl

Oh, you mean like economists at the IMF that rated the war'a impact on inflation as modest while placing the majority of the responsibility on monetary policy during COVID?

Or do you mean the European Parliament that stated that inflation would have risen sharply without the war and that stagflation was always a concern, one that was warned about long before Putin decided to enter Ukraine?

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2023/741487/IPOL_IDA%282023%29741487_EN.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Perhaps, you're talking about the FED economists who rated that the war increased inflation by no more than 1.3%? They called it noticeable but far from dominant.

Or perhaps your talking about economists at the largest hedge funds that placed monetary policy, supply chain disruption and demand rebound as all plying a larger role in inflation than the Ukraine war?

The war mattered, of course it did, but it was never a major contributor. But this was Visser's claim "Putin caused massive inflation when he attacked Ukraine, and now it appears the same thing is going to happen."

Which is, as I said, is the fakest of fake news.

And then we can discuss Powel's soft landing hypothesis. You know, the idea that the inflation caused by COVID monetary policy needed to be managed very carefully(IT WAS THE LARGEST MONEY PRINT IN HISTORY) as bringing it down too quickly would cause a recession. How the FED specifically engineered a soft landing while they could have taken a far more hawkish approach and slammed the brakes on, but intentionally chose not to. How many were arguing for the Fed to pull the plaster off but Powel stood his ground and did in fact generate that soft landing - much credit to the man for that. Something I'd actually like Moz's opinion on because, unlike you, he actually understands economics and is able to provide valuable insights.

PS Trad, nice cartoon. Apologies, I don't have pictures to explain all of this to you.

Oh, you mean like economists at the IMF that rated the war'a impact on inflation as modest while placing the majority of the responsibility on monetary policy during COVID?

Yes the IMF

https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/03/15/blog-how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions-031522?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/04/19/blog-weo-war-dims-global-economic-outlook-as-inflation-accelerates?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Or do you mean the European Parliament that stated that inflation would have risen sharply without the war and that stagflation was always a concern, one that was warned about long before Putin decided to enter Ukraine?

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2023/741487/IPOL_IDA%282023%29741487_EN.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Well their not economists but did you happen to read you own link by any chance

Quote 'The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the related energy crisis have undoubtedly had a significant impact on the euro area economy and inflation.

And no one said inflation wasn't an issue before the Ukraine war.

Perhaps, you're talking about the FED economists who rated that the war increased inflation by no more than 1.3%? They called it noticeable but far from dominant.

Yes that assessment came from people within the FED, but it was an early assessment that evolved over time and never the majority view. The FED has consistently stated the war had a significant impact on inflation.

Or perhaps your talking about economists at the largest hedge funds that placed monetary policy, supply chain disruption and demand rebound as all plying a larger role in inflation than the Ukraine war?

There is thousands of economists globally, the over whelming view of which is that the Ukraine war was a significant factor in driving inflation (not the sole cause).

Which is, as I said, is the fakest of fake news.

The indoctrination is strong with this one.

And then we can discuss Powel's soft landing hypothesis. You know, the idea that the inflation caused by COVID monetary policy needed to be managed very carefully(IT WAS THE LARGEST MONEY PRINT IN HISTORY) as bringing it down too quickly would cause a recession. How the FED specifically engineered a soft landing while they could have taken a far more hawkish approach and slammed the brakes on, but intentionally chose not to. How many were arguing for the Fed to pull the plaster off but Powel stood his ground and did in fact generate that soft landing - much credit to the man for that. Something I'd actually like Moz's opinion on because, unlike you, he actually understands economics and is able to provide valuable insights.

I understand reality and can see through political biases. When your done consulting him...come join us out in reality...it's actually more interesting and the world makes a lot more sense.

TLDR My guy thinks that the printing of $6t and the rocket ship of inflation it caused was gonna be stopped by the Russia Ukraine war starting. I do remember reporting at the time, from the US, where lefty channels were placing the majority of the blame for inflation on the war. Having been closely following the FED meetings and rate decisions for the year prior...I found that reporting hilariously clear bullshit. So did everybody else.

I guess, the fact the war didn't stop inflation thus means that the war must have contributed significantly regardless of the upward momentum inflation already had going for it due to defined and accepted factors mentioned previously. How does one make an argument like that with a straight face and expect anyone to take you seriously!?

Perhaps the problem is that I am considering the US and global inflation as opposed to Europe alone.

Obviously the war contributed more to inflation in Europe than everywhere else...did you think that was some kind of news to me?

For interest sake...

I used German inflation below because they would have been one the countries the the hardest hit by inflation caused by Russia/Ukraine, and then ran that against US infaltion.

The blue line represents the start of the war.

...what do you notice?

1) German inflation basically mirrors US inflation while lagging behind it.

2) US inflation already close to peak prior to the war.

No reason to suspect that German inflation would not continue to mirror US inflation as it had done before and after the war.

You could keep attempting to appeal to authority and i could keep finding my own apepals to authroity or you coud simply look at what is in fornt of ytou.

TLDR My guy thinks that the printing of $6t and the rocket ship of inflation it caused was gonna be stopped the Russia Ukraine war starting. I do remember reporting at the time, from the US, where lefty channels were placing the majority of the blame for inflation on the war. Having been closely following the FED meetings and rate decisions for the year prior...I found that reporting hilariously clear bullshit. So did everybody else.

TLDR, My guy think's that the original causes of inflation that year was going last forever and the Russia Ukraine war couldn't possible have an effect...well am I strawman-ing properly yet?

I do remember at the the time the righty channels, were placing the majority on the blame for Biden's stimulus package. Have been closing following the a multitude of financial experts and economist...I found that reporting hilariously clear bullshit. So did everybody else who wasn't busy watching for UFO's.

I guess, the fact the war didn't stop inflation thus means that the war must have contributed significantly regardless of the upward momentum inflation already had going for it due to defined and accepted factors mentioned previously. How does one make an argument like that with a straight face and expect anyone to take you seriously!?

Because it's not the argument I'm making. I'm aware of the contributing factors to inflation before the war, supply based constraints following the opening up from Covid Lockdowns along with Biden's stimulus package etc accounted for the pre war inflation rise...but gradually over time they subsided, inflation would of come down much more quickly if not for the war in Ukraine.

Perhaps the problem is that I am considering the US and global inflation as opposed to Europe alone.

Oh I'm happy to admit that it contributed inflation more in Europe than the US...but it still had a significant impact on inflation both in the States and globally. That's pretty established fact by now.

did you think that was some kind of news to me?

I didn't say it was...but you were the one responded to Sharkbok, post about Putin's ware causing massive inflation, by calling it fake news.

I used German inflation below because they would have been one the countries the the hardest hit by inflation caused by Russia/Ukraine, and then ran that against US infaltion.

The blue line represents the start of the war.

...what do you notice?

1) German inflation basically mirrors US inflation while lagging behind it.

2) US inflation already close to peak prior to the war.

No reason to suspect that German inflation would not continue to mirror US inflation as it had done before and after the war.

Yes German inflation did lag American inflation because Germany like the rest of Europe came out of lockdown a few months after the US did and then it faced the same supply constraints the US did.

Nothing in that graph is telling me anything knew

You could keep attempting to appeal to authority and i could keep finding my own apepals to authroity or you coud simply look at what is in fornt of ytou.

I provided links to the research and findings of those authorities, when you back a claim up with evidence it's not an appeal to authority. Aside from which they are they very authorities that you claimed supported you're argument, yet just a couple of seconds searching online exposes that they don't. Hell you even provided a link to a source that directly contradicted it, telling me you didn't bother to even read it. Go back to the UFO watching son.

So you admit German inflation was indeed, as shown on the chart, simply lagging US inflation, and US inflation had all but peaked by the time the Russian war started.

I do see you're hiding behind the ambiguity of "significantly"...when in a best case scenario it added sometime like 1.5% to already sky high inflation in the US...the chart is literally there.

Well done on missing the point. That being that even if you attribute all the inflation from the day the war started to the war, then you're at 1.5% for the US. Clearly, inflation was not on the verge of trending down the very day or week that the war started...so you can rip a good extra chuck out of that 1.5%.

And then what are you're left with? 1%, perhaps 0,5%...yeah guy, "Significant".

You're only real refuge is to say that the Russian war caused inflation to take longer to drop, but as you can see from the very same chart above...it came up pretty steeply and down pretty steeply, against the backdrop of a Fed chair that specifically stated, at almost every Fed press conference for six months that his priority was to avoid a recession and engineer a soft landing. And then you've attempted to use the gradual reduction of inflation by a cautious Federal reserve to say that the Russian war caused inflation to stay higher for, that word again, "significantly" longer.

You keep saying "Economists said it was significant" and "it was significant"...but the actual numbers right in front of you belie that.

You're yet to define what significant actually means and you've also hidden from stating when exactly you expected inflation to start trending down had there been no war.

The very simply logic...something can't be said to have caused something to be sky high, when it was already sky high and climbing when that thing happened.

It's really not that difficult.

Also, from the paper I posted a link to...

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the related energy crisis have undoubtedly had a significant

impact on the euro area economy and inflation. Yet, the extraordinary circumstances and the

simultaneity of different shocks make it challenging to say how much of the inflation is due to the

reopening of the economy after COVID-19 and how much is due to the war. Despite attempting to shed

some light on this debate, we deem it too complicated to give a precise quantitative answer to this

question."

In summary "we know it contributed but we don't know how much".

You're starting at 90 and calling the jump to 100 "significant" in defence of a statement that claimed the Russian war was the cause of sky high inflation.

Fine, if the final 10 is significant then what is the first 90? Super mega uber ultra significant? Or can we just use our brains and call the first 90 the primary and easily most significant cause of inflation and the last 10 simply an annoyance.

I can't dumb it down any more for you, chap.

"...but gradually over time they subsided, inflation would have come down much more quickly if not for the war in Ukraine."

Here you go, perhaps this from Powel might shed some light for you...

Jerome Powel - "A soft landing is a primary objective,” Powell said, “That's what we've been trying to achieve for all this time.”

...just be honest and admit that you were totally oblivious to this until today.

So you admit German inflation was indeed, as shown on the chart, simply lagging US inflation,

How's that an admission, I never stated otherwise.

and US inflation had all but peaked by the time the Russian war started.

Were did I admit that?

I do see you're hiding behind the ambiguity of "significantly"...when in a best case scenario it added sometime like 1.5% to already sky high inflation in the US...the chart is literally there.

Oh let me remove the ambiguity of it then. 1.5% is significant in the in the context of a spike to 9.1% or a inflation rate that's 7 points over target. Meaning it accounted for over 20% of the inflation excess. And the chart does not show anything other than what the inflation rate at a certain point of time, it does not break down the cause of that inflation.

Well done on missing the point. That being that even if you attribute all the inflation from the day the war started to the war, then you're at 1.5% for the US. Clearly, inflation was not on the verge of trending down the very day or week that the war started...so you can rip a good extra chuck out of that 1.5%.

And then what are you're left with? 1%, perhaps 0,5%...yeah guy, "Significant".

You argue like 1.5% is established fact. You're just cherry picking the a data point that suits you. It ain't, there is a whole range of estimates, some go as high as 3-4.5 points. And this was for the US, and you freely admit the inflation effect was higher in Europe.

And Shark never mentioned he was talking solely about the US. It was a general statement...Putin's war caused a massive spike in inflation...and if you want to argue that's an exaggeration fine, but's it's 100 times closer to the truth than calling it fake news, which is just absurd.

You're only real refuge is to say that the Russian war caused inflation to take longer to drop, but as you can see from the very same chart above...it came up pretty steeply and down pretty steeply, against the backdrop of a Fed chair that specifically stated, at almost every Fed press conference for six months that his priority was to avoid a recession and engineer a soft landing. And then you've attempted to use the gradual reduction of inflation by a cautious Federal reserve to say that the Russian war caused inflation to stay higher for, that word again, "significantly" longer.

It's not a refuge, it's the established opinion of the majority of the worlds economists.

I can't dumb it down any more for you, chap.

Because your starting argument was as dumb an argument as you can make it not even Mike would have the capacity to make it dumber,

...just be honest and admit that you were totally oblivious to this until today.

Just be honest and admit that dismissing a claim that Putin's invasion of Ukraine caused a massive inflation spike as fake news was just silly.

Oh let me remove the ambiguity of it then. 1.5% is significant in the in the context of a spike to 9.1% or a inflation rate that's 7 points over target. Meaning it accounted for over 20% of the inflation excess

You might call an additional 1.5% to 9.1% significant if it was enduring. But it wasn’t, gas declined quickly and the underlying driver wasn’t nearly as enduring as the Biden sponsored demand increase.

So it gave the appearance of adding significantly to inflation, which was seized upon by Biden apologists, who still ramble on about lag effects….but if it’s genuine stickiness on the way down with gas prices, we would still expect ongoing benefits in 2024 onwards.

But inflation has plateaued suggesting other underlying factors….namely Biden just pushed too much money into the system.

The establishment economists may not like that story, and blaming US inflation on the Ukraine lets them all off the hook, but it fits much better than the lagging on the way down theory. Here, look at these numbers:

Inflation at the end of 2022 was lower than it was at the end of 2021, despite all the so called lag effects. It went up fast and it declined fast….ie unless you are stuck on blaming the Ukraine instead of Biden, it’s obvious the Ukraine was temporary.

Nor is it correct to assume all the forces pushing inflation up to a peak in December 2021 simply stopped when the Ukraine war started. So even the shock effect is probably overstated

My intuition is inflation was still running up fast at the end of 2022. So to assume anything after January 2022 is Ukraine is naive. Much of that additional bump looks suspiciously like the ongoing effects of excess demand….at least until March 2022 when inflation was already 8.6%. That calculus yields at best a 0.5% Ukraine bump.

Chat’s summary

The Ukraine war explains the mid-2022 spike, but not the underlying rise in inflation or its persistence afterward.

………

I’m not sure I even agree the Ukraine war explains the mid 2022 spike, given inflation was 8.0 % in February before the war and 8.6 percent in March, actually dropped in April and maybe 8.7% in May. To me it looks like a nothing burger in the US or perhaps an excuse burger.

Were you even aware of those numbers? Be honest now. Did you know inflation was already at 8.5% before any Ukraine effects could have worked through the system?

Pretty much how I see it too, Moz.

US inflation was already massive, and moving higher, when the war started. And German inflation tracked but lagged US inflation.

So even in one of the hardest hit Euro countries it's difficult to make the case that war was as large a factor as Stavie insists it is.

Keeping an eye on oil and its not really doing anything surprising. I've added a higher risk buy level...lets see if it bounces there.

Other than that, its respecting the trading zone quite nicely.

Inflation no doubt plays a role i- but what is more important is the decline in GDP of countrie due to recession is also a particular problem. The German economy has been in recession for the past 4 fiscal years.

In the EU countries the Green policy had a negative impact on agruiculture produe and as a result has an impactt on inflation. That is why the EU countries kept buying oil and gas and food from Russia - while with no stopping of importing Russian food products as well, Knowing the dependence of EU countries on Rssian inport all Putin did was to bedevil the situation further by rice increases on EU imports. .

Weak and ineffective Govenance in Europe plays a major role in economic decline in Europe. In Germany the problem relatesd to industrial recession - and recession has a major impact on inflation since the Russian charged more for the products imported by EU countries as well, . So to put the blame for inflation on solely either the Ukraine War and Iran situation as the reason for the ever=prsent inlfation is childish BS.

Fact is at present 25 countries have agreed to help safeguard shipping in he Persian Gulf to clean up mines in that Gulf is important as well, But as Plum stated the prolem is in general is not the War situation alone. In the main it is really a situation of the EU countries effective destroying their own countries economicallly

,

clevermikeHall Of Famer

57,214 posts

Mar 25, 2026, 14:41

Inflatgion no doubt plays a role in inflation...

Some insightful stuff...

Wrong Shark….some inslightful stuff.

Also, I smashed my car into a tree the other day. Totally wrecked it. A passer by then came and chucked a rock at my car.

The insurers said the damage from the rock was...significant.

Lol.....

Yeah, it really made a huge impact on the damage

Don't laugh...they said it was significant. It damaged paint and caused a dent.

I asked, what about the rest of the car, they said "Did not you hear, we just used the word significant?"

You might call an additional 1.5% to 9.1% significant if it was enduring. But it wasn’t, gas declined quickly and the underlying driver wasn’t nearly as enduring as the Biden sponsored demand increase.

So it gave the appearance of adding significantly to inflation, which was seized upon by Biden apologists, who still ramble on about lag effects….but if it’s genuine stickiness on the way down with gas prices, we would still expect ongoing benefits in 2024 onwards.

But inflation has plateaued suggesting other underlying factors….namely Biden just pushed too much money into the system.

The establishment economists may not like that story, and blaming US inflation on the Ukraine lets them all off the hook, but it fits much better

This is just the right wing narrative verbatim that's been told over and over. And again your choosing a low ball figure that you think better suits you argument than a figure generally agreed by economists. Yes Biden's policies contributed to inflation before the war and yes the Biden administration tried to put too much emphasis on the War in Ukraine for inflation in the US just as right wing pundits put too much blame on Biden and ignored supply chain constraints coming out of Covid lockdown and then ignored the effects on the war in Ukraine, because it suited both of them politically to do so.

Ah yes when economists say some something you don't like, label them as 'established economists' that thusly can be ignored without reason.. Classic cherry picking...I'll only use experts if they suit my argument.

It's the general position of most economists that the War in Ukraine had a major impact on inflation globally. More so in Europe than the US. But the idea that invasion of Ukraine did not cause a major spike inflation was fake news is laughable.

Nor is it correct to assume all the forces pushing inflation up to a peak in December 2021 simply stopped when the Ukraine war started. So even the shock effect is probably overstated.

Not was I assuming that.

My intuition is inflation was still running up fast at the end of 2022. So to assume anything after January 2022 is Ukraine is naive.

What's naive to believe is that none of the inflation before February 2022 was caused by the war in Ukraine. Just like we have seen again with the Iran war...energy, food and fertilizer prices started to increase in late 2021 (in addition to what they were already increasing over* before the war, as markets began to anticipate the war.

Were you even aware of those numbers? Be honest now. Did you know inflation was already at 8.5% before any Ukraine effects could have worked through the system?

You do realise we had a very long winded discussion before on this...where you ended essentially ending coming around to my position, that at most Biden was responsible for about 3 points of inflation and that it was wrong for people to assign most of the inflation to him. P

I asked, what about the rest of the car, they said "Did not you hear, we just used the word significant?"

Ah yes derisive mocking dismissal, the last refuge of a beaten man. I take it that's an acknowledgement your argument has finally run out of road.

Perhaps you'd be better off doing some UFO research, Stavie.

Ah yes when economists say some something you don't like, label them as 'established economists'

Talking about labels.....the irony here is hilarious.....because mostly everything that you don't agree with, from any poster.....on almost any topic that gets brought up on this forum, including this thread as well.... you quickly and repeatedly label "right wing narrative"

Were you even aware of those numbers? Be honest now. Did you know inflation was already at 8.5% before any Ukraine effects could have worked through the system?

You do realise we had a very long winded discussion before on this...where you ended essentially ending coming around to my position, that at most Biden was responsible for about 3 points of inflation and that it was wrong for people to assign most of the inflation to him. P

Again were you even aware of the fact that inflation was 8.5% before the war could have had any effect? Your counter argument that there was anticipatory buying is nonsense.

Putin’s invasion caught most of the corporate world by surprise and America was not stocking up on goods. Oil was increasing steadily throughout 2021 well before any invasion was a concern.

Nope, your argument that Ukraine had a significant effect on US inflation is blown out of the water by the fact that inflation was within 0.5% of its peak before the war started. Nonsense you just can’t abandon because you have never been able to admit you are wrong.

Well, Moz, had the rock not been thrown at the car after it crashed, would the car have crashed in the first place?

To answer yes to that question surely means you're a Nazi because future rocks can affect the past and anyone who doesn't believe that suffers from rockophobia.

I can tolerate many things but rockophobia is where I draw the line.

The anticipation of rock possibly being thrown is the thing Plum, those clairvoyant shoppers in Little Rock sensing Putin’s intent.

Who knew the general population were such wonderfully gifted analysts and could so efficiently combine it with their telepathic skills?

"You argue like 1.5% is established fact. You're just cherry picking the a data point that suits you. It ain't, there is a whole range of estimates, some go as high as 3-4.5 points."

...from 8.5% down to 5%...is 3.5%, just under half of the difference.

Guess when US inflation was at 5%?

In May of 2021. What's that, 8 months before the war?

I'm starting to believe that Mystic Meg wasn't bullshitting all these years after all.

"At the end of the third week of March, data from the Central Energy Fund indicated that petrol prices would go up by R4.94 per litre in April.

However, BizNews’s Alec Hogg is now warning that motorists are facing a R6 per litre increase in April with an additional R3 per litre hike potentially on the cards for May.

The average under-recovery at the moment is R5.62 a litre. Then you add to that the fuel price levy, so you’re going to talk about, as things stand, around R6 a litre,” he said."

Hip Hip hooray to the pro-Trump supporters.

The oil companies, big corporations and last but not least, the defence contractors are making a killing, and you just fall for it like a bunch of losers.

Higher fuel prices mean food costs go up, transport goes up, and shortages start affecting everyone. Maybe next to come : Mandatory food and fuel rationing...

This is a snowball effect. The ordinary people pay for it all, while politicians and presidents line their pockets.

This war? It’s scripted. Netanyahu and his puppet the Oros man are doing this for there own benefits...

Oh the regime is bad, save the people, blah blah blah...meanwhile innocents are dying like flies.

This kinda reminds me exactly of the COVID-19 period. Possible restrictions, rationing, higher prices, maybe locksdowns again...the great reset?? There's a snake in the grass.

Freedom rankings by country…..China (149), Russia (152), Venezuela (159), and Iran (164).

In Trump's 1st term Brent was between $40 and $50 a barrel....bad policies lead to it being between $70 and $90 under Biden...in the short term it will be higher, but as soon as Iran is sorted, it will drop to about $50...stop the hysteria already...rather blame the useless ANC for the high fuel prices in SA...the USA's prices are also market related and it's almost half of what SAns pay ...the fuel price levy isn't even half of the difference..

Great DB, yes, the ANC is a bloody fuck-up…we all know that. But it doesn’t change the fact that Oros Man is making it worse.

Another lie from your hero is that he’s supposed to improve things in SA, and he has done nothing of the sort!

I have to drive a lot for work and that extra R6 per litre, will had up and give me a "snot" klap.

You telling me that is not going to effect you negatively??

Fuck him!

The bloody liar only wants to change BEE for American companies. He has done nothing about our Farm murders. What good has this fool done for anybody??

Lots... he's open the doors to America for those minorities in South Africa who've had enough of ANC oppression and corruption..and he's putting lot's of pressure on the ANC...no other world leader has dared to do that since Apartheid ended...he had the balls to do that despite the political capital it cost him..that alone is enough for me...but there are a lot more positives ... you'll see the effects in a few months...stop staring at the personality...Maduro gone, Iran leadership in tatters...army and fleet destroyed...soon...

Correct Db

Some cannot see the wood for the trees

"The bloody liar only wants to change BEE for American companies. He has done nothing about our Farm murders. What good has this fool done for anybody??"

This is the equivalent of giving a homeless person some money and then they insult you for not finding their dental plan.

Its not his responsibility to fix our problems, M.

Rather, be grateful for any support we get than deride the guy for not solving all our problems.

Cyril has been banned from G7. That is that is thabks to Trump. the ANC are being put under huge pressure and being a made a fool of in the world stage, eroding their credibility. Farm murders are now more know to the rest of the world than they were before. Trump had created the refugee program for ethnic minorities in SA.

Saying "fuck him" seems a little strange.

Tell me, what could he do about South Africa that would make you happy?

He can't bomb the place because you don't like that. Defos no boots on the ground.

Sanctions perhaps? Then we all suffer while the ANC carries on.

What's your solution? What can Orange Man do for you?

"The bloody liar only wants to change BEE for American companies. He has done nothing about our Farm murders. What good has this fool done for anybody??"

This is the equivalent of giving a homeless person some money and then they insult you for not funding their dental plan.

Its not his responsibility to fix our problems, M.

Rather, be grateful for any support we get than deride the guy for not solving all our problems.

Cyril has been banned from G7. That is that is thanks to Trump. The ANC are being put under huge pressure and being made a fool of on the world stage, eroding their credibility. Farm murders are now more know to the rest of the world than they were before. Trump has created the refugee program for ethnic minorities in SA.

Saying "fuck him" seems a little strange.

Tell me, what could he do about South Africa that would make you happy?

He can't bomb the place because you don't like that. Defos no boots on the ground.

Sanctions perhaps? Then we all suffer while the ANC carries on.

What's your solution? What can Orange Man do for you?

ome cannot see the wood for the trees

look down the rabbit-holes

Its not his responsibility to fix our problems, M.

Never has been ..... and never should be ..... we are entirely self sufficent, with all the necessary skills in all the the right areas..... if this government just allowed us to be.

You telling me that is not going to effect you negatively??

Fuck him!

Yeah Fuck him ... Fuck Trump and everything he stands for...... Fuck him

But hold on..... let's also say a big fuck you to the estimated minimum $35 billion to $50 billion that Trump and his administration has contributed towards Africa throughout his two terms so far.....with another few years to go ..... but Fuck him anyway.

The USA owe us fuck all...... and I mean absolutely fuck all ..... nothing.... nada ..... zlitch.....yet look at what this Trump administration has done, and also what all the other previous Obama, Biden, Bush administrations have done for Africa as a whole, and South Africa in particular....

And no, I don't believe that this means that you must side with Trump or the USA on everything.... very far from it.....but talk about biting the hand that feeds you....

For fucks sake......a little gratitude would go a long way

Some more oil fun since i see the price is moving today...

Scenarios 1 & 2 = the most likely in that order and would keep us in the trading range. I think when it hits those zones there will be heavy selling.

Scenario 3 = the least likely and bounce off of previous resistance would be the most bullish case, as shown. I'd still short $120 though.

I'm still thinking we'll stay in the trading range and probably come back down to $90-100 again...LOL and buy when Trump next spins up some more positive news.

I never said anyone must fix South Africa, so stop putting words in my mouth. I’m talking about real impact, like petrol price and cost of living. That’s my point. Stick to the subject.

And DB you still haven’t answered: So the R6 per liter increase is not going to effect you negatively??

This whole “be grateful” nonsense… DA go jump in a lake, and Cool down.Take that attitude somewhere else.

You throw around these millions and billions like it means something to me. That’s a blanket number for Africa over bloody years, not South Africa right now, and none of that money is helping me.

So why must I be grateful? For what exactly? You be grateful then. I don’t care. Fuck the Oros Man!! He is a self serving, narcissistic ego maniac...end of story!

You guys keep saying there’s “pressure” on the ANC. Where? Show me the result. Because on the ground, nothing has changed. Costs are up, petrol is up, and life is getting harder. So don’t tell me about pressure if there’s no outcome.

The Oros Man makes big, broad promises. He does that in the USA and globally. But most of his promises are vague or never followed through in any measurable way.

There’s a clear credibility gap. You can’t point to real results, only talk. And the reason for that is simple. This isn’t about helping South Africa or globally. It’s about US domestic politics, appealing to certain voters, and pushing his own image.

Countries act in their own interests, not because anyone here asked them to. A lot of this is just signalling, saying things for effect without real outcomes. So again, where is the actual impact here??

Then DB this refugee programme story. You make it sound like thousands are lining up and leaving. That’s not true. It’s limited, selective, and not easy to get into.

Some reports even say people are coming back to SA. So stop exaggerating it like it’s some big success. It doesn’t affect most people here anyway.

And news flash: nothing that Netanyahu and his puppet, the Oros man, are doing in this war is beneficial to Iran, its people, or the world. That’s a fact.

My point is simple. Promises were made about improving things. I’m not seeing it. Not in my pocket, not in my daily life. Instead, I’m paying more.

So don’t come here with future promises, global headlines, or historical aid. Show me one real thing, right now, that has made life cheaper or better here.

Or show us the positives of this war right now, not in months times. The longer this fucking war goes on the worse it will get.

You can’t.

That’s why I say what I say.

"Then DB this refugee programme story. You make it sound like thousands are lining up and leaving. That’s not true. It’s limited, selective, and not easy to get into.

Some reports even say people are coming back to SA. So stop exaggerating it like it’s some big success. It doesn’t affect most people here anyway."

They say 4500 to 7000 a month...and it's open to everyone who can articulate the fear a future persecution.... I'm not aware of anyone being refused unless they committed serious crimes in the past... don't fall for the BS propaganda about people coming back... it's expats who've been abroad for years, claiming their citizenship back after the law that made them lose it was overturned in the constitutional court recently ...

The fuel hike will be temporary, but there don't have to be one...the ANC gets the oil cheap from their Iranian buddies, yet charge us the same as if it was market price...

I never said anyone must fix South Africa, so stop putting words in my mouth. I’m talking about real impact, like petrol price and cost of living. That’s my point. Stick to the subject.

I did stick to the subject, when you said Trump must Fuck off.......

Have you even once contemplated what would really happen to your day to day costs..... if Trump literally "Fucked Off" and left us to our own devices, with zero financial aid at all...... wake up man.

You throw around these millions and billions like it means something to me.

Lol

It really should mean something to you M, unless you want increased taxes or inflated consumer prices to help cover all the financial aid and assistance that we won't receive from around the world by telling people like Trump to Fuck off... where the hell do you think the government would get that lost aid from in the long term...... you and me..

You throw around these millions and billions like it means something to me. That’s a blanket number for Africa over bloody years, not South Africa right now, and none of that money is helping me.

This is ignorance personified

So why must I be grateful? For what exactly? You be grateful then. I don’t care. Fuck the Oros Man!! He is a self serving, narcissistic ego maniac...end of story!

Yeah.... Fuck him

You can’t point to real results, only talk. And the reason for that is simple. This isn’t about helping South Africa or globall

This is mental

My point is simple. Promises were made about improving things. I’m not seeing it. Not in my pocket, not in my daily life. Instead, I’m paying more

Yeah, and you would possible pay a shit load more without the aid that comes from Trump and the rest of the US .....but nah..... Fuck them anyway.... whilst we still take from them every day to keep millions of people in this country alive.

So don’t come here with future promises, global headlines, or historical aid. Show me one real thing, right now, that has made life cheaper or better here.

Historical aid my ass....... current aid more like it, even if it was reduced.

"Have you even once contemplated what would really happen to your day to day costs..... if Trump literally "Fucked Off" and left us to our own devices . . ."

I think every person on the planet would be better off.

1. “Have you even once contemplated what would really happen to your day-to-day costs if Trump literally ‘Fucked Off’ and left us with zero financial aid?”

DA, this is pure speculation. I am talking about petrol price hikes and cost of living issues right now. What ifs about Trump disappearing don’t address the real, current impact.

The “aid hypothetical” doesn’t translate into measurable local benefits, especially for the people actually paying more for fuel.

2. “You throw around these millions and billions like it means something to me… it really should mean something to you M”

Wrong!! Those numbers are a blanket figure for Africa over many years, not South Africa specifically.

Even if aid exists, it is mostly structured or organized for certain sectors, not directly helping people facing petrol hikes or cost of living increases.

Telling me it “should mean something” is irrelevant and patronizing. I don’t care about your moral spin, show real results instead.

3. “Yeah, and you would possibly pay a shit load more without the aid… but nah… Fuck them anyway… whilst we still take from them every day to keep millions alive.”

Two problems here:

Vague numbers, you can’t prove this directly affects current SA petrol or daily costs.

Aid isn’t helping white people like me with the fuel increase. So why should I be grateful, huh? That’s my point.

4. “Historical aid my ass… current aid more like it, even if it was reduced.”

Bingo. Current aid might exist, but it doesn’t offset the petrol hike or cost of living increase. Historical numbers are irrelevant to the argument.

And another thing : this “where would the government get the lost aid from, you and me?” argument is complete nonsense.

That’s the government’s problem, not mine. They’re running South Africa, collecting our taxes...so don’t try to make their fuck ups my responsibility.

If the government actually ran our money properly, we wouldn’t need aid from Trump the Oros Bozo or anyone else in the first place. Fix your own house before dragging me into it, DA.

Bottom line:

None of your “aid,” hypotheticals, or moralizing proves Trump is helping me or anyone like me.

I’m paying more for petrol, nothing has changed locally, and promises are empty.

Stop sidetracking with “be grateful” or historical numbers. Show real results in my pocket or my life!! Otherwise, fuck all of this Trump BS!!

I think every person on the planet would be better off.

I see

So if Trump turned his back completely on South Africa, or Africa as a whole, we would all be better off for it..

Got it

So i just saw a very interesting video on YouTube of Netanyahu speaking live.

If he "reaches his goals" and Iran falls, he wants to cut out the Strait of Hormuz

(Controlled by Iran/Oman) and Bab el-Mandab(Controlled by Yemen/Djibouti)

He wants to lay oil pipelines running straight into Israel. He has been discussing that with his "very real partner the USA"...what a fucking joke.

Isreal has made Oros Man and the whole of America there bitch. My guess is after Iran possibly falls, he will go for Egypt and the Suez Canal.

That way he controls all the shipping lanes. With the oil flowing through pipelines straight into Israel, he controls 40% of the world’s oil.

So he would have never been able to do that alone and that's why his Puppet the Oros Man and the USA military came on board.

That is the real reason for the war. And He is so brash, he admitted it on live TV...that's why the Boom Booms are falling on Iran.

DA, this is pure speculation. I am talking about petrol price hikes and cost of living issues right now.

Short term problems.... completely overshadowed by what we get long term

The “aid hypothetical” doesn’t translate into measurable local benefits, especially for the people actually paying more for fuel.

Agreed, but you would certainly feel it more in the long term if it wasn't there to begin with

Wrong!! Those numbers are a blanket figure for Africa over many years, not South Africa specifically.

I see.... so let's just scoff at the $5 billion in aid we have received specifically only for South Africa, over the last 5 years from the USA.....that's only about R95 billion to us ......I agree M, they can Fuck Off ... who needs that kind of money.

Even if aid exists, it is mostly structured or organized for certain sectors, not directly helping people facing petrol hikes or cost of living increases.

Really.... so if that aid was not forthcoming, you honestly don't believe that you and I would end up contributing at some point in place of that aid..... Ooooookk

Telling me it “should mean something” is irrelevant and patronizing. I don’t care about your moral spin, show real results instead

Got it M... the aid that we get from the USA means absolutely fuck all to you, because it does not affect you in any way whatsoever......... got it

Aid isn’t helping white people like me with the fuel increase. So why should I be grateful, huh? That’s my point.

I get it, maybe that aid is only helping the Black people and not the White people .... that's not good, nor fair.... so Fuck Trump.

That’s the government’s problem, not mine. They’re running South Africa, collecting our taxes...so don’t try to make their fuck ups my responsibility.

I can't believe you are even saying this ..... wow...... it will become yours, and mine, and every other SA citizens responsibility ..... are you seriously this naive?

If all financial aid that comes to South Africa stopped right now because you told everyone to Fuck Off..... where the hell do you think this governement is going to miraculously get that money from to address whatever it's citizens are facing....... you have blinkers on.

If the government actually ran our money properly, we wouldn’t need aid from Trump the Oros Bozo or anyone else in the first place. Fix your own house before dragging me into it, DA.

Duh !!

I have been saying this all along... where the hell have you been !!!

None of your “aid,” hypotheticals, or moralizing proves Trump is helping me or anyone like me.

Yep, we have now determined that Trump is only helping the Black population of South Africa.

Ok DA, once again:

- All your “long-term aid” and “hypotheticals” are irrelevant. I’m talking about right now...petrol hikes, cost of living, what’s hitting my pocket. Honestly DA, stop pretending imaginary future benefits.

- Your $5 billion “aid” to South Africa over five years? Blanket numbers. Doesn’t help me pay for fuel, doesn’t touch ordinary people.

You waving it around like it’s some miracle? Pathetic. Bingo. Exactly why I’m not grateful. Aid that doesn’t reach me isn’t aid, it’s meaningless.

- Your scare tactics about “we’d end up contributing instead” are pure projection. That’s a government problem, not mine.

They mismanage taxes and finances, we need to fix it by voting these fuckers out, before we run into some fantasy!!!

You also clearly ignore my point:

IF SA'S GOVERMENT MANAGES OUR MONEY BETTER, WE WOULDN’T NEED THE BOZO'S MONEY IN THE FIRST PLACE...USA'S AID SHOULD NOT BE A PERMANENT SOLUTION.

- You say I should be grateful for aid only helping others is absurd. That’s exactly my point...Trump’s so-called help doesn’t touch me, so why should I give a damn??

Moralizing and patronizing me? Forget it. I don’t care about your hypotheticals or your moral spin.

Bottom line:

You dodge, deflect, moralize, and speculate, all to avoid admitting the truth...Trump’s aid doesn’t solve my real-life problems today.

Stop pretending long-term fantasy numbers matter. Stop trying to make my pocket your responsibility.

The reality is staring you in the face, DA, and you still miss it. But here it is for you and your MAGA cheerleaders:

Trump’s ego, empty promises, the credibility gap, and now this unprovoked war are hitting ordinary people’s lives globally.

The reality is that none of his “aid” or bragged about actions actually touch us or anyone like us in a meaningful way.

And yes, when we look at the war, and i list all the disadvantages, but i can’t get a single one of you Trump supporters to name a positive, what does that tell me?

It tells me that you guys are full of it. You're spinning propaganda, warmongering, and talking nonsense while real people are paying for it.

Facts matter, and all you’re rhetoric collapses when you measure it against reality. It’s not about “long-term benefits” or “hypothetical aid,” it’s about what actually happens...and in this case, it’s a credibility gap and human cost that you guys refuse to acknowledge...BOOM!!

". . . but i can’t get a single one of you Trump supporters to name a positive, what does that tell me?"

I think these brainwashed Trumpanzees still think that their hero . . . the bloated, egotistical and demonstrably stupid clown . . . is going to "win" something.

...country on the blind...

Okay, let's see how our oil charting plays out this week.

Early market action suggests upward to the trend lines and resistances on my chart.

My amateur guesstimate...

scenario 1 = 60% probability

scenario 2 = 35% probability

scenario 3 = 5% probability

If scenario 1 plays out I see the trading range shrinking and the price likely not dropping too low, perhaps to $100-105

If scenario 2 plays out then I think we can expect price to go down to somewhere between $90-100

If scenario 3 plays out then all bets are off. But if price rejects at or around $120-130...there'll be massive sell pressure and I think we could see price drop to $80-85.

Of course this is all just some charting fun/practice for me as I'm not a commodity trader and have never charted commodities during a war that directly affects them.

- Your $5 billion “aid” to South Africa over five years? Blanket numbers. Doesn’t help me pay for fuel, doesn’t touch ordinary people.

It is incredibly scary just how ignorant you really are.....

So financial aid from the USA does not touch ordinary people in South Africa or Africa.....got it.....what an incredibly naive and ridiculous statement to make..

You waving it around like it’s some miracle? Pathetic. Bingo. Exactly why I’m not grateful. Aid that doesn’t reach me isn’t aid, it’s meaningless

- You say I should be grateful for aid only helping others is absurd. That’s exactly my point...Trump’s so-called help doesn’t touch me, so why should I give a damn??

Absolutely pathetic statement from you, to say that it is meaningless.....and that if the aid doesn't reach you, then why should you give a damn about all the financial aid coming in.......yet at the same time, you want to constantly preach to people on this forum about how they don't care or show empathy towards the many innocent civilian lives in Iran that were lost recently.....

Talk about high level hypocrisy.....

You don't see or realise just how many lives will be lost if that aid is suddenly stopped......but...... just because you "think" it doesn't affect you, the aid that we receive is meaningless.... what a crock of shit.

You dodge, deflect, moralize, and speculate, all to avoid admitting the truth...Trump’s aid doesn’t solve my real-life problems today

Stop being deliberately obtuse .....the penny still hasn't dropped with you has it....

Without the financial aid that we get from other countries around the world, including from the USA....your daily real life problems that you speak about so often, like personal costs or expenses could and would most probably very easily be affected... that is the whole bloody point that I am trying to make.

Deny that as much as you want to, and try and swing it anyway you can, but that is the hard reality of living in South Africa, with possible vat increases and other increased daily expenses for the average citizen if all aid was stopped..... that is a irrefutable fact.

Why don't you at least look into or research just a little bit on what effects this financial aid that we receive all that time, would have on the ordinary and average South African citizen, if it was just taken away..........and that might just make you sit up and start respecting where it comes from a little bit more......talk about fuck all gratitute.

Further than that, it's basically pointless debating this issue further with you, because you have already very clearly stated multiple times now that if this financial aid doesn't reach you personally..... which it already does in some way.......then this financial aid is meaningless, and why should you give a damn about it.......well.....try saying it's meaningless and that you don't give a damn about the millions of lives that that same financial aid saves every year.......BOOM !!

It tells me that you guys are full of it. You're spinning propaganda, warmongering, and talking nonsense while real people are paying for it.

Yeah well..... back at home in my world, real people are dying every single day, without that "meaningless" aid.....

You never actually addressed my core point...that Trump uses aid as ego-driven PR while ordinary South Africans feel none of it in their daily lives.

Instead you called me ignorant in your first sentence, threw in a hypocrisy charge, then ended with an emotional appeal about millions dying.

That's manipulation, not a counter argument.

On the "aid reaches you indirectly" point... the vast majority of US aid to SA is PEPFAR funding, specifically for HIV/AIDS programmes run by NGOs.

It was never designed to reach the general population. So the real question is why South Africa is so dependent on foreign funded healthcare that the government should be providing itself. That's an ANC failure, not a reason for me to be grateful to Trump.

And comparing my empathy for civilian deaths in a war zone to questioning HIV/AIDS aid benefits is a false comparison.

One is about human life and foreign policy. The other is about economic reality. They're completely different conversations ...and you merged them to make me look hypocritical.

My original point stands untouched:

Trump's aid is almost entirely HIV/AIDS programme funding that doesn't touch the average South African's pocket, and waving billion dollar figures around as propaganda doesn't change that reality.

Correct. According to my sources over 80% of US aid (which is a lot less than $1bn a year by the way) goes to HIV/AIDS programs which . . . as we all know . . . ends up going to some ANC fatcat so he can buy a new Maserati or something. The remaining 20% is intended for other health programs and probably ends up paying for someone's Range Rover.

Now sure why any normal South African should be applauding this aid. It has zero impact on any South African's life (black or white) with the possible exception of those taking anti-retrovirals.

Another thread where one makes an effort to add some value but we get lectured on innocents dying and Orange Man bad.

FFS, M... can you at least try to keep your virtue signalling Trump erection in your pants for ten seconds?

This was a discussion about economics and oil price, not your amazing morals.

What the hell are you on About?!

This isn’t virtue signalling...it’s economics. I’m talking about aid that doesn’t reach ordinary South Africans pockets. That affects petrol, cost of living, daily life.

Your insults and talk about morals don’t change the fact: waving billion dollar figures around as Trump PR doesn’t solve real problems here. Stick to the topic, or stop pretending.

Correct. According to my sources over 80% of US aid (which is a lot less than $1bn a year by the way) goes to HIV/AIDS programs which . . . as we all know . . . ends up going to some ANC fatcat so he can buy a new Maserati or something. The remaining 20% is intended for other health programs and probably ends up paying for someone's Range Rover.

I also mentioned what aid has been received under all the previous administrations, not just Trump....and I made that quite clear, and if you honestly do believe that the aid that we receive is not only significant to Africa and South Africa, but absolutely imperative.... like M, you clearly haven't researched it enough.

I am actually quite shocked that you would think that the aid that we receive should not be applauded.....

Just like USAID, all aid gets misappropriated to some degree, whilst a lot of it still does some good, so to make a blanket statement that this regular financial aid should not be applauded is ridiculous and ungrateful.

Now sure why any normal South African should be applauding this aid. It has zero impact on any South African's life (black or white) with the possible exception of those taking anti-retrovirals.

I suggest you actually take some time and read up on what could or would happen over the next 18 to 36 months..... if all aid stopped.

Well I think it's ridiculous that anyone who lives in this country and sees what happens here on a daily basis might believe that any funding might reach its intended recipients.

Well I think it's ridiculous that anyone who lives in this country and sees what happens here on a daily basis might believe that any funding might reach its intended recipients

Well, I guess if my world always revolved around every single negative aspect or portion of South African life, all the time, every day....... and expecting nothing to ever improve or be appreciated at all....and never ever looking at or looking for, just some of the positives that come out of so many negatives in this fantastic country... even the small ones and big ones alike...that we do get every single day in South Africa, then I would agree with you, that person would be ridiculous.... however, as you can see, even though I often acknowledge and accept the very worst things about South Africa all the time, I can at least also acknowledge, appreciate and in particular be very grateful for some of the good and great as well, which includes the financial aid received from around the world.

Looks like we got scenario 1 in the end...

"My amateur guesstimate...

scenario 1 = 60% probability

scenario 2 = 35% probability

scenario 3 = 5% probability

If scenario 1 plays out I see the trading range shrinking and the price likely not dropping too low, perhaps to $100-105"

Price is currently at $103 and some change.

Let's see where it bounces.

Price bounced perfectly to form an ascending channel...that is a bearish pattern with a 70% chance of breaking down.

I've drawn onto the chart what i think is a rough representation of what price will do.

The trading range has indeed shrunk as predicted, and unless there's some news that causes price to break the numerous resistances above it, we can expect price to break down out of the channel, come back up to touch it once or twice and then break down further as it gets rejected and previous support turns into resistance.

Have removed previous buy and sell levels because from here on would tend to simply buy bounces from the bottom of the channel and sell rejections from the top of the channel.

Every time prices touches the top of the channel and rejects, the possibility of a total breakdown out of the channel increases. The channel gap is about $10, so we can expect that when it does break down out of the channel, you can take that price and subtract $10.

Let's see if that plays out.

I'd be loading up and getting ready to short now because the chart is prepping for a major breakdown and there'll be a lot of liquidations on the way down.

Yet another oil update.

As per the previous update, the price broke down out of the ascending channel as predicted. Once an ascending channel like that is formed, the general wisdom is that you have a 70% chance of price breaking down. In this case it has done exactly that.

"Every time prices touches the top of the channel and rejects, the possibility of a total breakdown out of the channel increases. The channel gap is about $10, so we can expect that when it does break down out of the channel, you can take that price and subtract $10."

When it broke down through support it was priced at just over $100, and it has now bounced at $90. Again, as predicted.

Now we look for the price to move back up to what was previously the support, and see if it breaks back into the ascending channel or if it gets rejected and the previous support turns into resistance. If price does make its way up and gets rejected and previous support(A), that is a major bearish signal it'll likely then go down below $90, probably to $80 or lower.

Price did indeed end up rejecting off of previous support...no surprise there.

Bit tricky trying to call prices when the news cycle is as volatile as it is.

Interesting, though, regardless of the news cycle, the chart patterns still play out.

We did get a rejection from the previous support line, and currently, we are bouncing off of $90.

For me, both Iran and the US need the war to end, and I think the market knows that. The fact Trump has decided to block the Strait entirely puts more pressure on countries like China and such to weigh in on finding a resolution.

My feeling is that the price might go up a few more times, but it's gonna take some effort to break into the ascending channel again. We can expect price to get rejected off of previous support again.

The most likely result from here, for me, is a few bounces off of $90 and then a breakdown below $90 yo $80.

$120 is totally out of the question at this point.

It will be below $60 in 2 months....this nonsense won't last much longer.

The moment the US decided to blockade Hormuz the market knew the US was using the right lever and regardless of oil price movements, the marker soared.

The TDS clan are hating it haha

... drives them batshit. :-)