Lions with 14 men for 60min win

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Mar 25, 2024, 12:22

against Connacht comfortably 38 -14 just saying

Mar 25, 2024, 14:10

What are you saying Dave….spell it out.

Mar 25, 2024, 14:38

That playing with 14 men clearly did not weaken the Lions side, in fact it galvanised them into playing at a higher level

And this was against a side that had two specialist hookers in the 23, playing on an artificial surface in good weather conditions

Kind of blows that whole 10 point handicap theory out the window don’t you think

It’s just an observation:)

Mar 25, 2024, 15:47

Exception vs Rule...

Saffex, remember that one time you won money at the casino? Did you immediately sell your house and bet the profits?

Why not?

Mar 25, 2024, 16:25

The rule is brittle given the exception and therefore to proclaim the rule as gospel is flawed in itself especially when you consider that the perceived ruling side has its own handicaps

Mar 25, 2024, 19:41

The rule is not brittle…there is a strong statistical link between red cards and points scored by the team that benefits. To be precise over many data points it’s 0.25points per minute. Thus the Boks who benefitted by a net 40minutes, benefitted by a net 10 points. Which I believe is the point you are trying to dispute Dave. Read the extract and let it all go…we were lucky, just enjoy the good fortune.


‘When looking at historical red card data from the Six Nations tournament, one thing became evident very early in the process – there wasn’t a lot of data available. In fact, only 4 red cards existed in the data from between 2014-2020 and only 2 of them met the inclusion criteria. For the purposes of developing a more robust model, we elected to expand the analysis across many competitions with the hopes of obtaining more data points which met our inclusion criteria. Competitions that were considered in this analysis were limited to:

  • Super Rugby (2012-2020)

  • Guinness Pro 14 (2012-2020)

  • Gallagher Premiership (2013-2020)

  • Top 14 (2014-2020)

  • Six Nations Tournament (2014-2020)

  • The Rugby Championship (2014-2020)

  • World Rugby Spring and Fall International test matches (2012-2020)

  • Rugby World Cup (2015, 2019)

From this very large pool of potential data points we were able to identify 155 games which met the inclusion criteria for the study. From the data, we then identified the team that gained the player advantage from the red card and then calculated the net change in score from the time of the red card to the end of the game. We elected to calculate the net change in score rather than the points scored by the team with the player advantage because it is possible for the team playing short-handed to score, and in fact this happened more often than you would think. A red card doesn’t automatically mean that scoring will be one-way traffic in favour of the team with the player advantage. The average of the net change in score was calculated as the net Expected Points (nEP) for the red card, and these were plotted against the Time Remaining in the game (Figure 1).’

‘If we look at the equation of the line (y = 0.241x), the slope indicates that for each minute following a red card, the team with the player advantage will score 0.241 net points. Again, this is a scenario where it may be better to trade off some accuracy for increased understanding by simply rounding the slope to 0.25 points. Thus for the sake of simplicity it may be easier to remember that the team with the red card advantage should score a quarter of a point per minute following the red card.’

Mar 25, 2024, 19:45

The Lions proved in a big way that that rule is very brittle and they achieved that against a side with no set piece handicaps, played on an artificial surface in good weather conditions

Mar 25, 2024, 19:57

Oh ffs Dave you know the loss of a foward has a huge effect….one game doesn’t negate 155.

Mar 25, 2024, 20:08

Stop swearing Moz :)

Mar 25, 2024, 20:41

Hahaha….could I use the taal?

Mar 25, 2024, 20:44

Always sounds better in the taal

Mar 26, 2024, 06:57

What the poor mozzietard omits in his calculations is that the wee abs came into the RWC with a bad disciplinary record and earned their red card. There are consequences to actions. So according to mozzie the consequences were 10 points. Having dicipline is part of the requirements of playing winning rugby the. The wee abs lacked disciple. 

As for being a man down it can galvanise a side. Who will forget the Sharks beating the crusaders when down to 13 men.

In any event you cant complain if you are fairly given a red card then say the other side didn't deserve their win because you fairly got a red card.

As usual ou mozzzietard is just being his usual befuddled self. I fear he will get worse as time goes by.

Mar 26, 2024, 07:39

Sometimes the exception is a team with 1 less player, gets more motivated to fight and play harder…but usually the team that benefits from the Red Card, will put more points on the board then just the nett 10 points….1 point is surely Not using your advantage properly.

Mar 26, 2024, 11:33

Believe it not it was not the Boks fault the wee abs got a red. It was their lack of discipline. It was a Weakness and they lost a player because of it. Their fault.

Plus nobody can say that that they would have won if they didn't get a red. Its all speculation. Stick to the hard facts. 

The fact is mozzietard has been trying ever since our previous RWC win to demean the Boks win as a means of trashing Rassie. That is what is behind all this - FACT.  A bitter guy whose nose is firmly out of joint because Rassie and the Boks made an utter fool of him. His cred is shot. 

Boks win second RWC under Rassie and Du Toit is man of the match. It couldn't possibly have been worse for the jackasses. It drove poor Doos out of his mind and left fake Bok supporter Mozzzietard seething! The whining began immediately, Doos and Mozzie were inconsolable. In their grief they revealed their true selves and it wasn't pretty.

Mar 26, 2024, 13:47

No need to debate the point….the study was extensive, over 150 games with cards. The finding is the team a man up should score a point every 4 minutes, while a man up. The Boks were a man up for 40 minutes….so they should have been 10 points up at the end of the game.

They were one point up and scored no tries. A win yes, but  hardly  something to celebrate on Second New Year’s.

We should be so much more lethal given our talent, instead we have been coached into this defensive miasma.

Mar 26, 2024, 16:41


Somebody give the snowflake a fresh box of tissues! 

Drat those useless Boks and their dumb coach winIng the RWC for a second time (after all I had to say!) And making a monkey of me BOO HOO HOO!

Grow up Mozz you were dead wrong about the Boks and Rassie. 

Get on board the Rassie train Mozzietard. Then if we won the RWC for a third time you could at least save some face and be happy about it. Think about your position if you continue to bad mouth Rassie and he wins again. Think of the damage to date of your cred. A third win by Rassie would be the end of mozart credibility wise. 

Mar 26, 2024, 16:41

Mar 26, 2024, 17:29

Ah, the old change lanes tactic….doesn’t work in mauls, nor in debates. Your man was handed the final on a 10 point plate and he needed another dose of Pollard perfection to win by a point.

Mar 26, 2024, 19:33

...'n wen is 'n wen.

Mar 26, 2024, 20:43

Bullshit Moz Rassie was handed nothing as the Lions vs Connacht proved in more ways than one.

Your theory was blown out the water and to think Connacht had two specialist hookers for 80 min, the game was played in good weather on an artificial pitch

We can’t say the same for the Boks without a specialist hooker for 78min, down to 14 men for 20 min including the last 10 min and played in the rain

10 points handed on a plate my arse - tell Connacht that

Mar 27, 2024, 05:14

We are actually arguing with someone that doesn't know the difference between the exception and the rule.

No wonder he's a DDA fanboy.

Mar 27, 2024, 15:47

...the exception proves the rule?

There are a lot of matches where a red at the start actually motivates the side and make them play better than before the card...our loss to Ireland at Newlands 2016 or 2017 when CJ Stander got red springs to mind...and last years RWC final...we were in total control up to the red, but things started to swing gradually after the red...Bokke might have relaxed a bit...who knows, but wr played better vs 14 than vs 15 psychological, but there was definitely something....

Mar 27, 2024, 17:08

Yes but…..the data includes all those psychological effects. And the results, totally logically, show the red carded team is at a significant disadvantage.

Why didn’t we win convincingly against 14 men. Because our game plan was defense and kicking. So even if there was space to be exploited we were never going to use it. 

Our kick and defend game plan under Eluckmiss reduces every match to an arm wrestle. We will never be out of it, but we also never win without angst against good teams.

The team that performed in the final was NZ, it was a gallant fight.

Mar 27, 2024, 17:55

"Yes but…..the data includes all those psychological effects. And the results, totally logically, show the red carded team is at a significant disadvantage."

Ofcourse...but if you're honest, you'll agree that we were more in control before the card than after...we relaxed after the complacent...gave them a foot in the door.

Mar 27, 2024, 18:10

Poor ugly Plum clutching at straws

Stupid fuck

Mar 28, 2024, 02:19

Well Draad being honest, in the period before the red, there was also the yellow to Frizell…at minute 2.00..  Overall it’s hard to say we were in control at any time when the other team scored the only try, dominated with 60% possession, twice the clean breaks and 37 defenders beaten to 14.

The only things we really controlled were scrums after Ox came on…and the goal kicking Mo’unga having missed at minute 6o and Barrett missing the potential match winner at minute 74.

Mar 28, 2024, 05:34


Tell you what, need to clutch a few beans. Move them around on a table and try to count them.

Perhaps that's help to understand statistics a touch better.

Mar 28, 2024, 06:11

Well, it looked like Frizell deliberately leg rolled Bongi, which took him out of the match...IMO he could be lucky not to get red...NZ wasn't in control of their aggression because of preasure...hence the cards.

Mar 28, 2024, 09:09

Oh plumb pudding you sound so cute trying to be clever

Talk us through Duan not being a link player one more time

Pretty please baldy

Mar 28, 2024, 13:14

Plum pudding?

Thinking of pudding at this time of day?

Moment on the know the rest.

Stop thinking about food, and perhaps go and burn a calorie or two billion.

Mar 28, 2024, 13:51

The pressure at minute 2.00 caused Frizzel to get carded. You can’t be serious Draad. And by the way I do think his transgression could have got a red, it looked cynical.

Mar 28, 2024, 15:08

The pressure was applied in the match at Twickers already... before the RWC...

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