Tournament Predictor

The big four contenders

Ireland have never made it past the quarter-final stage at the Rugby World Cup, but surely this year that hoodoo will end.

So we now have Opta’s tournament predictor, which apparently takes into account thousands of data points, manipulated by a super computer.

What’s interesting is the very low number for Scotland. If true our chance of making the playoffs are very high …..the chance of losing to both Ireland and Scotland is about 50%x5 % or 2.5%. Leaving a 97.5 % chance of making the playoffs. 

After which the chance of winning is 97.5 % x 50%x85%x50% or 21%. Which accords with the computer number. The number I solved for is the odds of winning the semi….where we would likely play one of England, the Bargies or Australia. 

The computer has the odds of a win over these teams at about 85%, which strikes me as high. To me 70 to 75% seems more realistic, given the non quantifiable factors.

Still I think they’re about right that each of NZ, France and the Boks have a 20% chance. Ireland I’d put lower….perhaps  15%. But that won’t meaningfully change our odds.

Well, as we have all been saying the top 4 teams are very evenly matched so the results of the model ring true. Small things & which team can impose their style of play will be big factors in who wins. Couldn’t be a more exciting RWC!

The above analysis takes no cognisance of the role played by bent refs happy to receive kiwi largesse!

JW we have seen it all before. 

Wrong the Opta model takes account  of results, which incorporates whatever reffing bias exists. Even some of the reverse bias the Boks have enjoyed since Harrassmiss produced his disgusting tape.

Whoops on this particular occasion you happen to be wrong Beeno, that never seems to discourage you though and the odds are with you... surely you have to be right soon or later

A game can also still switch on the bounce of the ball. One tremendous kick instead pops-up and the opposition are instead on attack. 

I am more bullish after the Boks win against the All Blacks and some of the changes to the backline. 

However, it was just recently the Boks scrapped past Argentina playing in SA.

The Boks only weak spot seems to be the potential to make bad selections in midfield.

I can't see them regressing into the WC...outside of picking DDA and Kriel ahead of AE and Moodie.

I'm happy with Kriel as a utility back...but when would he play while Willemse is there? Perhaps if Willie is injured and Willemse starts at 15, or if Moodie is injured and we need Kriel at 13?

Bringing us to DDA. For my money he can run around the training field, get a run out against the weaker teams in the pool stages and play second fiddle to AE for the rest of his career.

I don't think that anybody is unhappy with any of the forwards, a few subjective grips aside.

At 10, we're sitting pretty with an in-form Manie and a fresh Pollard in the wings.

At 9 we're spoiled for choice...same with wingers.

At 15 we have Willie and Willemse, which most here agree are the two best 15s selectable for the Boks.

It's only 12 & 13 we're could screw this up by picking DDA.

My feeling is that if we start with DDA in our N.B. games, our chances of winning the WC are in line with the predictor above. If we start with AE and Moodie...I'd probably pencil us in as favourites.

Obviously, all of this discounts WR's insatiable desire to grow the game at all costs. The cynical me thinks that the ABs and Boks are going to penalised into oblivion at this WC.

Personally I think NZ will beat France and the Boks will beat Ireland and Scotland. That puts us up against France and that’s the game that concerns me. Win that one and we should be in the final given the weakness of the other pools.

That's the one everyone is dreading, Moz.

If the ABs win on Friday, I'll be both shocked and little proud.

Don't tell anyone hahahaha

I have a dreadful feeling that Manie will let us down with his kicking .... often

You’re fun at parties,  right?

Don't worry lads when Scotland win the world cup you can still consider that a victory for South African Rugby!

Your fun at parties, right?

Me?

Imagine a party with all Ruckers regulars attending.

I have a feeling Xavi has the best dance moves of anyone here.

CC would be the DJ. Mike the barman. Saffex the sound tech. Deus in charge of lighting and visual displays. Moz master of proceedings. Blo would be in the chill out room boring hyperventilating goers/everyone to tears. Beeno in charge of catering. Rooi taking everyone's coats at the door and looking everyone up and down before they enter. Draad discussing the finer points of the venue and its construction with goers. DA in charge of shooters and making sure everybody gets too many.

I'll bring the zol...

...and Trad would be the car guard.

sounds like a fun time. Wee Beeno would be on his soap box in the corner, lol

Credit is given when it is deserved: liberal societies have managed to turn into jobs activities other societies do not as those activities are based on nothing.

So this so  called predictor predicts nothing.

All four favourites are favourites anyone could give without trying.

The use of probabilities is improper. It is noticeable that it adds no information, the difference between each major contender is so small that all of them are equal from a probabilistic point of view.

For people believing in certainties, two of the four teams will be kicked out from the tournament, which means 40 pc of the so called probabilities are distributed over the rest.

How, certainly not in the following: if one of the four teams makes it to the final against one of the non four teamsn the one from the four will not rise to 80 pc chances of success.

The other team will benefit the most from the elimination of the three other major contenders.

Best case scenario for this con: two of the four teams make it to the finals. Worse case scenario: no teams.

Liberal societies have this good they push jobs that makes no sense, attach a mathematical model and that is good to go. A big factory to predict the past.

Good jobs.

And that is climate science models that are good.

Pitiful.

Be quiet...just stand there with your high-vis vest on and watch my car.

Am I not invited to this party then, Plum ?  

@ Becs, 

You and I can kaalvoet sokkie.

Saffex will have to seethe and cope.

Ha ha ha ! Ok, Xavi  

You are, Becs.

But don't bring any Kiwis with you ;)

Thanks  

Oh I would never do such a heinous thing.