FIXTURESNo upcoming fixtures — check back soon.
FORUM / RUGBY /  Next generation rugby rating system

Next generation rugby rating system

Started by Brycy37 REPLIES1,139 VIEWS· 22 Nov 2018, 00:05
SHAREXFACEBOOKWHATSAPPTELEGRAMREDDITLINKEDIN
BR
BrycyPro4,671 posts
22 Nov 2018, 00:05
#1
22 Nov 2018, 00:05#1

..New toy..


RugbyPass has created a next generation rugby rating system, based on machine learning and shaped by game winning moments. The system (RPI) is a world first for its complexity and comprehensive embrace of northern and southern hemisphere players and teams. By using in-depth data analysis, RPI determines exactly what it takes to win, in real time. Explore the RPI now!

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 04:49
#2
22 Nov 2018, 04:49#2


Eben

Brodie

LOL

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 06:28
#3
22 Nov 2018, 06:28#3
So it's.....er.......settled science.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 06:32
#4
22 Nov 2018, 06:32#4
So here's the complete scoop. The Bok starters from the Scottish test and their world rank/ and the top ranked player in each position. Stephanie and Kolisi are ranked in their appropriate positions, not by their numbers which are opposite to world practice. Willie ranked 28/ Mckenzie Nkosi 18/ Liam Williams Kriel 39/ Goodhue Allende 33/ Lienert Brown Dyantyi 13/ James Lowe Pollard 5/ Sexton Faf de Klerk 17/ Iraberin Kitshoff 13/Kilcoyn Malcolm Marx 1/Malcolm Marx Malherbe 11/ Furlong Etzebeth 2/ Devin Toner Mostert 9/ Jonny Hill Du Toit 21/ O Mahoney Kolisi 11/ Ardie Savea Vermeulen 9/ Read ...... A challenging finding, but in some ways intuitive. Our biggest weaknesses are at centre and blindside flank. Our strengths in the front row and at lock. Mostert is vindicated as I expected based on the mozcroscope. Pollard is highly ranked as is Etzebeth even if he is regularly run down Urinal. Willie is a bit of an outlier, but other than that pretty much what a few of us have been saying all along.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 06:46
#5
22 Nov 2018, 06:46#5

Sexton 1, BB 2

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 06:47
#6
22 Nov 2018, 06:47#6

Pollard 5

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:03
#7
22 Nov 2018, 07:03#7

In Super Rugby and that is not even the world in actual fact as a center Fat Fransie was ranked 32 in 2014 and as a player at  256.  That is the useless one you actually wants in the Springbok team.    

Incidentally in 2014 De Allende was ranked in Super Rugby as the no 1 center.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:11
#8
22 Nov 2018, 07:11#8
See above for the complete scoop and the big schplotttttt!
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:13
#9
22 Nov 2018, 07:13#9
Esterhozen ranked 12....Allende 33!
PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:14
#10
22 Nov 2018, 07:14#10

Kwagga

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:16
#11
22 Nov 2018, 07:16#11

Marx = Nelson

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:16
#12
22 Nov 2018, 07:16#12
Am ranked 22....Frans 33...Kriel 39. Replacing Allende and Kriel with Esterhozen and Am clearly indicated by objective analysis.
AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:19
#13
22 Nov 2018, 07:19#13

Damian has never been a top 10 centre in any year of rugby. Any system which claims him to be so is flawed. I have covered this player extensively and the mythos which surrounds him. Interestingly, he is actually better now than he was was at any point of 2014 or 2015's Super rugby campaign; He is playing at a similar level to his WC showings. 

Rugby is not a very well analysed sport. Thi s is where the Americans leave the rest of the world for dust. 

PL
PlumCaptain21,007 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:20
#14
22 Nov 2018, 07:20#14

Indeed Mike...

We should keep selecting DDA on the basis of his 2014 rating.

Makes sense.

Solves our centre issue...I mean Gerber will be on the bench.

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:20
#15
22 Nov 2018, 07:20#15
Snyman 7/ Lomp13........this algorithm just keeps on giving.
AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:22
#16
22 Nov 2018, 07:22#16

Mike believes José Erasmus is stupid enough to drop Snyman from the squad and start Lood against Wales. Madness. 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:25
#17
22 Nov 2018, 07:25#17
Schalk Burger still ranked at 18 hahaha and Ruan Pienaar ranked at 4. HM totally vindicated, I love this rating system.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:55
#18
22 Nov 2018, 07:55#18

It is a weird system - since it does not take into account the level on which players play.  Some of the higher rated players have not played test rugby and some of the higher rated layers are only occasional test players.   

Most of the ratings take into account in series including very weak teams and it is consequently not a merit-based system 

Obviously Mozart would enjoy this time of thing - it is in fact a system where misleading info provides illogical results.   That is his n ormal view of rugby anyway.  

AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 07:59
#19
22 Nov 2018, 07:59#19

No system is foolproof, but this is much closer to reality than anything I've seen before. A step in the right direction. 

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
22 Nov 2018, 09:27
#20
22 Nov 2018, 09:27#20

This system compares players on lower levels with test players and that makes it unreliable as a real value assessment tool of players.

It is the type of BS that Mozart and AO will thrive in.  Imagine a center in Toulon game against Agen - being rated on the same level and ba sis as a center on test level between the AB's and SA.       

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 14:23
#21
22 Nov 2018, 14:23#21

Willie is ranked 28 in the world...drop him now!

AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 14:28
#22
22 Nov 2018, 14:28#22

Damian's games in the RC were Vodacom Cup level. Nothing more. It's an affront to these poor players to be compared with this wing hybrid.

It's been a few tests since Willie had a good game. He really isn't thriving under José Erasmus. We see flickers of potential, but too little. 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 15:30
#23
22 Nov 2018, 15:30#23
All the factors taken into account are meticulously listed....what we can't see is how they interact. How exactly opposition strength is accounted for, for example. We can, however, use the tournament screen and look only at internationals....as usual Tokkie hasn't actually looked at the site, just gone back to his talking points. And in another view it duplicatesthe top 5 IRB ranked teams with Wales and England reversed. Interestingly it ranks the Saders ahead of Oz and Scotland....which is probably true An interesting new objective measure. Gone is the favouritism that ruins our rugby. Not all the rankings are immediately intuitive, but that will force us all to explore things further.....and some are screamingly accurate and needed I might add.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
22 Nov 2018, 16:57
#24
22 Nov 2018, 16:57#24

No Mozart

Fact is that one can look only at test teams - but the fact is that it does not  include performances in tests only - it deals with the points achieved  in club and franchise games as well.

Problem is that it  is why so many players are on top in the ratings.   Take for instance McKenzie - who was exceptional in Super Rugby matches and questionable on test level still being on top of the ratings.  

There are highly rated players who have not played a single test game rated amongst the centers for instance.           

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 17:10
#25
22 Nov 2018, 17:10#25
Not if you use the test screen, it only includes players who have played in internationals.....but given their points don't change you are right in that it includes all matches they played. Clearly something that could be another screen as they develop the tool.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 17:36
#26
22 Nov 2018, 17:36#26

Koch 2 Cough, cough!

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
22 Nov 2018, 20:07
#27
22 Nov 2018, 20:07#27
It needs a few adjustments
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,253 posts
22 Nov 2018, 20:31
#28
22 Nov 2018, 20:31#28

Mccaw has already worked out how to cheat the algorithm.


AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 20:35
#29
22 Nov 2018, 20:35#29

McCaw is the glitch in the Matrix. 

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 20:47
#30
22 Nov 2018, 20:47#30

According to that, SA is a better team than the sum of the parts...means the coach is doing something right..not?

AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 20:52
#31
22 Nov 2018, 20:52#31

Rassie has d one good, but he has also made some mistakes. He has a powerful group of forwards. Good halfbacks. I'll say that overall, his use of the bench has been very good. I have a collection of stats which show he has gotten quite a lot out of the bench, even if he did blow it against New Zealand. He just has a lot of trouble handling the backs. Our attack is the worst of the top 8 nations. Several nations beneath us are even better. 

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
22 Nov 2018, 21:10
#32
22 Nov 2018, 21:10#32

Our centre's are crap...back row unconventional. ..wings got potential, half backs OK...tight five top notch...Vermeulen's part of the back row is good too...The makings of a great team...one year after the Coetzee disaster...if we are unhappy with where we are now, we are f ull of it!


GO BOKKE!!!

AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
22 Nov 2018, 21:13
#33
22 Nov 2018, 21:13#33

We need less kicking and more ball moving around. It doesn't have to be all about the backs, but we often struggle to put enough phases together to really test a defence and when we do, it's concentrated dead end runs through 12.

BL
BlikkiesPro1,526 posts
22 Nov 2018, 23:42
#34
22 Nov 2018, 23:42#34

I don't think Rassie is involve with the detailed coaching of the backs. That is left to Mr. Stick, but in reality I am absolutely convinced that this is controlled by Swys du Bruyn.


sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,253 posts
23 Nov 2018, 01:40
#35
23 Nov 2018, 01:40#35

Stick has no role, but he does collect a salary to please the politicians.

The centres are useless, especially the options at inside centre. 

Perhaps Nkosi could get some time as an outside centre, and anyone could get some time at inside centre (Except Carthuizen or Duhlande).

I do not think the Boks can be considered contenders at the World Cup until the midfield is sorted out. 

The ball just dies in the midfield. It may be a case of playing Pollard at inside-centre in the 2nd half to try to get some thought process into the midfield



AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
23 Nov 2018, 02:10
#36
23 Nov 2018, 02:10#36

Damian is unusable, but the structure of the attack itself isn't good. Rassie went the route of the Wallabies with an identity crisis. A slow developing, clunky attacking structure. Rassie hasn't used the resources he has available to him well enough. He isn't getting the best out of Willie either. 

Here's an interesting stat: New Zealand, with their midfield crisis have gotten the ball to 14 for 188 possessions, the Boks? 79. 70 runs and 9 passes. I'd say it's anaemic, but it doesn't quite do it justice. They've gotten the ball to 11 for 170 possessions. The Boks? 107. The passes are almost comparable at 51-33, but the runs are heavily in New Zealand's favour: 119-74. Think of all those runs where Dyantyi had to chip and grubber to get behind the defence, or run out, then cut back inside taking contact. Our wings are having a hard time getting anything going.

6.6% of team possession is run through 12. 67% of that possession is run. New Zealand by contrast concentrate 6.8% possession through 13. 56% of that possession is run. It may not seem like much, but that's a good number of passes to the back three. 

The Boks essentially use Willie to feed forwards or centres. Mainly 12. So every road leads to a ruck. Where New Zealand use Barrett or the centres to bring the back three into the game, we have our fullback bringing our centres into the game and very seldom, our wings. It's back to front.

What we've seen from André is a capacity to hit the line far harder than Damian, and also bring other players into the game. Rassie has passed up a solid distributor for a media myth. 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
23 Nov 2018, 05:50
#37
23 Nov 2018, 05:50#37
Clear in the model
BL
bluebokPro3,977 posts
23 Nov 2018, 09:42
#38
23 Nov 2018, 09:42#38

McCaw is the glitch in the Matrix. 

Hahaha! Good one Aug!! 


I think it is fair to say that Stick is the problem with our back line . Our wingers have performed reasonably well this year, but that is mostly because they have x-factor and created tries (with the help of Willie), not because of well structured back line play. 

— END OF THREAD —

More from Rugby

More news