A perspective on NATO expansion's role in the Russia/Ukraine war

Thoughts welcome.

Interesting video, thank you Pakie

If one looks at the santity of sovereignty and self-determination, then countries like Poland and Estonia had every right to join NATO if they wanted protection from Russia.

If you look at it from the Russian point of view, then NATO moving closer to them is a strategic threat, much like the US viewed the Soviet misslies in Cuba in 1962.

How can one stop former Russian states from wanting protection from Russian aggression, especially given the history of how Russia has behaved historically.. especially with the belief that allowing this would help these countries remain far more stable and democratic.

The only reason why NATO did this was to prevent Russia from reasserting anymore dominance or aggression, but this did not make NATO right, especially given the previous assurances that they would not expand to the East.

In my opinion, these Eastern European countries voluntarily requested to join NATO because they feared Russia, and the fact that they were not and never have been forced to join by NATO.

Should a completely unheard and impossible hypothetical scenario happen where Russia would then demand and be permitted to put missiles in Mexico or somewhere else that would be strategically benefical to Russia, then I assume the Monroe Doctrine would be invoked by the US, which would in any case be completely ignored and laughed at anyway by Russia....... but then I could see someone trying to overthrow the Mexican government to ever prevent that from happening, and that is besides how the economic sanctions that would be imposed would decimate Mexico, given that 80% of it's products are sent to the US.... that's just one very wild out there hypothetical scenario....

NATO is not a saint in this whole issue, and in my opinion never have been, and still won't continue to be at some points.....but I still go back to allowing sovereign states being able to choose who they want to align themselves with, for whatever their own reasons are....and that is precisely what Ukraine wanted and still do want to do.

The idea I'm getting is that the people in charge knew very well that Ukraine joining NATO could not be done without severe consequences and Russian retaliation. I agree that a sovereign nation should be allowed to align itself with whoever. Whether Russia's concern about NATO on their borders is legitimate or not, I don't know, that's above my paygrade, but clearly it is a major issue for them and everyone involved knew that. What a mess.

Agreed Pakie... way too far above my paygrade as well

NATO must have known that this would escalate...I can almost guarantee it.

But again, even in a very perfect world, let's say categorically that NATO never have and never did anything wrong at all in the past, and then Ukraine decided completely and individually on their own, without any outside pressure, that they wanted to join NATO due to some ongoing and regular hostilities from Russia.....why and how could or should that be stopped?

This is the issue the newsmedia hide from the public and the leftists took ove the USA and the shit started there.

In 1991 Yelsin reached an agreement with the then president of the USA - Bush Senior that Russia would withdrew its troops from Germany and allow for unification of Germany provided tht NATO will not expand into countries that used to be members of NATO. Ever since then that signed agreement the elftists in the USA tried to breach that agreement and in 2007 NATO decided that Georgia and Ukraine would be admitted to NATO as members, but the Russins hreaened they would destroy Ukraine if it happens and the Germans and French opposed he NATO decision.

There was another principle supported by Kissinge that he main priority in the interess of the west would be to ensure that Russia and China be oppoisng themselves than driving those two countries into an alliance, The fact is the present Ukraine issue drove the Chinese and Russians into an alliance.

The problem started in Ukraine in 2013 dtrted in 2013 when in terms of he 1991 Constitution a new President was elected on the basis that Ukraine will aplly for admission as an EU country - memebrhip of NATO was not an election issue aised by any candidate in that election. There is a difference though - NATO has no memebship entry requirement - while teh EU has such a requirement, Tke for example the issue of Turkey aleady a NATO member - applied for membership of the EU in 2013 and still are not a member because the Gvernment is not according to the EU not a D emocratic Country,

However, Ukraine was refused EU memebrship on the basis that it was and is the most corrupt country in Europe with a Government financial management system that defies basic economic principles.required in EU counries, What was reqquired from Ukrine in that case would hacve caused severe problems for Ukraine ad effecively the then Ukraine President faced a problem and he turned to a rade agremeent with Russia, It casused protests by people against the decision starting in September 2013 in Kiev,

It was those protests that opened the way for the leftists in Washingto to meddle in Ukraine and the CIA sent Brennan as their head of CIA 4 times with bags of money to dund the protests in Ukraine using the USA venue as a funder of the protests. When teh proets turned nasty and the famous Asov brigade starting igfle attacks on the Police - the President f eareda bloodbath p develop and left Ukraine in the hope that his departure would prevent a bloodbath in Ukraine.

A Government vacancy developed in Ukraine and the 1991 Cnstitution of Ukraine was discarded. in Ukrine and the VP of Ukraine was more moderate but he would sign no lies that countered that Constitution and he was replacedby teh American Government on the instruction of the then USA Government in 2014 and re[;aced by a Government consisting of the members of the Bandera movement in Ukraine. So what was this famous Bandera movement. Bndera was the elader of the Ukraine in 2041 operating from Poland / When Germany attacked Russia in 1941 Bandera effectively becme the leader of the Ukraine Government and about 300 000 Ukraine troops gto invovled in te war against the USSR. For his own protection lived on a base in Poland and from there organized arrests of Jews and other opponents of Germany in both Poland and Ukraine ebing slaughtered and 800 000 peple we killed in that base where Bandera lived. The amin requirement was that members of his movement hate all Russians and fight them by all means possible, In essense Bandera sided with the Germans - but fled to Munich duuring the War and handed himself over to the US Government - who at the time thought eh would be useful forf uture peupoeses. The Poles thought otherwise and in fact applied to the USA t extradite him to face trial on being part of the Holloquast in Poland. The US Government refueed to exradite him - but eh was murdered in Muich in 1956.

In 2007 the then Ukraine Government apprved Bandera as a national hero of Ukraine and a movement started in Ukraine called he Bandera movement. Their only requirement for membership was hatred of Russia and all things Russian// It was form that movement that the USA picked the Govenment of Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. Wheneverthe Ukraine Gvernment refused to comply to the wishes of the USA Government they threatened to withold financial aid and the Ukraine Government always followed US instructions in all regards.

That was the reason for the outbreak of the civil war in Easten Ukraine - but there was also another problem going back to 1953 that needs to be borne in mind. In 1953 the then USSR Government remembering the role of the Ukrainians fighting with the Germans decided to increase the Russian com[ponent of eh Ukraine population and for that purpose redrew the bordes of Ukraine to include areas never part of Ukraine in history and that include the Crimea. For teh Russians the Crime is a very important base for the Russian fleet and the new Ulraine constitution effectiely agve the Ukraine their wn Parliament and prvided for a treaty for use by the Russian fleet fro an indefinite period, The reason was that all other ports of the Russians bar the Crimea and Vladivostok the pacific ocean is frozen during winter.

The US Government wants the nases in the Crimea and they could not get it otherwisse througha proxy war between Ukraine and Russia and since then the USA Government Gvernment promoted he issue o NATO mebership as a requirement. to start and maintain the proxy war in Ukraine. The prblem was tat sicne 2014 there is no democracy in Ukraine and the Civil War in Eastern Ukraine wa the result.

In 2019 Zelenskyy campaigned in teh eelction that he would end the Civil War in Eastern Ukraine through negotiations - but eh soon after the eelction found out eh ahs zero power in tha regard and was told any difference on the Ukraine issue would result in the USA cuting off foreign aid to Ukraine and that is where his undertaings beore hee elcion tued out to be ignored, and he situation ft orse han i was before the Ukraine electins in 2019/

In October 2021 the European Security Council met in Gen eva and here were talks arranged between Bidena nd Putin held as part of the process, Whether Biden knew what was discussed was neve clafrfied - but what was mentioned by Putin was a request for a special conference dealing wh Ukraine and Biden mumbled something that e would sk Blinken toa rrange such a conference, Needless to say no conference on the issue took place and the Russian invasion of Ukraine started 4 months ;alter.

To end the War the Turkish Government tried toa rnage a ceasefire and the Russian Foerign Ministe under chrimanship of the Turkish Foreign Minsiter met in Istanbul after a reqquirement set by the Ukraine Government to withdraw its troops hreatening Kiev from Ukraine . After that withdrawal the emeting in Uraine started and the Turkish Government issued prgress reports on discussions pointing out that it was a vey difficult situation. ater days of negotiations a framework for a ceasefire was decided on by the representatives of Ukraine nd Russi to initial a ceasefiire agreement to be signed by Zelenskyy and Putin - wit the Minsk agreement of 2015 being implemented. Thaws when Blinken in a telephone discussion with the Ukraine Foreign Minister to not intial anything and leve Istanbul that sae day.

So the prozxy ar of he USA in Ukraine against Russia got worse ever since and way over a million people dled and millions fled from ukraine as a result.

I condemned both Putin and Biden for what follwed in Ukraine since 2021 as well as Biden's role in Ukrqine as VP in the period .2014 to 2017. Wha wa of aprticulr interest was one f Biden's lasta ctins as President. He pardoned a list of people who got kick backs during the period 1 January 2014 and 1 Dember 2024 from being prosecuted and tahwas an admission of the fact thatmximum bribng became the cormerstone of USA invovlement in Ukraine.

Well he conflates a policy for expanding NATO with actually expanding NATO. But the last expansion was around 2003. Since then weapons have transferred to the new members, but no new territory has become NATO.

That said the expansion was a bad idea. That has to be the only thing Merkel got right. But it’s a stretch to say it was the cause of the Ukraine war, more like the excuse for the Ukraine war.

"But it’s a stretch to say it was the cause of the Ukraine war, more like the excuse for the Ukraine war"

Yeah, have to agree

Mozart

There is one thing you lose site of, namely Russian Cuture and language oppression that would take Russia into wars.

Un Ukraine the 2014 chan ge of Government led t discarding of the Conmstitution on 1991 In that constitution the freedom of speech and culture for all people living in Ukraine was guranteed, After the power take-over the new Cabinet decided on an Act to ban Russian speakig in Ukraine, The VP that was acting President refise to sign iit since it was clearly a defiance of the 1991 Constitution and was then informd that the Constitution is not regarded as binding in Ukrainem but he would not sign the draft act into law.

After an eelction was held he also refused o sign the draft law - but the issuew as the ause of teh C vvil War in Ukraie, In 2015 a Conference wa held in Minsk where it wa agreed by Ukaine, Russia, Fnace and Germany that the following be incorporated in a cease fore agreement in Ukraine:-

1 That a new Constitution fo Ukraine be compiled by experts based on the US F ederal Constitution

2 That the bores of Unkraine b regarded as os was in 2015 and recogmized and guaranteed by the UN SecurtyCouucil

3 That Ukraine would not eb allowed to join NATO

The Constitution was never compiledc and the Civil war continued - but at the same time representatives of the Ukraine Government declared that in fuure speeaking of Russian in public will reul in a fine be levied and in 2019 teaching of Russian in Ukraine chools were banned as well, The next thing that gappened that 14 days before the Ukraine Invasion started IMacron went to Moscow and the only thin g that Putin asked for was that the Minsk A greement be implemented and Putin and Zelesnkyy signed an agreement on that score,

Whether the USA inssted Zelenskyy must not bide by te agreement just sigbed and afte sigbibg the agreement himself - he ordered that all ussian speaking members of the Ukraine Parliaent be arrested, Rgar was a week after all the Ukraine Parliament voted unabinously that ay invasion by Russia should be comdemned,

That was a flagrant disregad of he agrement and the next week the Invasion s taredm If those parties complied with proposals there would not ah ve eben an Invasion. The ba The things also got orse when Ukraine banned the functioning of the Ukraine Orthodix Churxh from functioning in Ukraine, Like all Orthdix Churces woldwide the said Churcj jas links with the ussian Orthodox church - but such a banning was totally against human rights proacticies ina democratic country. In fact thearrest and church banning was the cause for starting the Invasion.

By the way Lithuania, Latvia and Etonia whith substantial Rusian speaking peirole joined NATO in 2007 and Russia objected to it, but did nothing about it because the three countries did not discard their Constitutions - which protected the human rights of Russians living in those three countries snd Rusia threatened them in any way.

Opem oppressin of ussian speaking people is for the Rusians traditionally a majr course of wars and that will not chang e ever,

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Lots of good takes here.

The one thing I would add is that whether NATO expansion into Ukraine was an excuse or a response to crossed red line, the opportunity for invasion should have been taken away from Russia.

Plum

You have a good point here - but there is anohe problem wih waae and especially in the USA. When the US Army was withdrawn from Afghanistan corruption ed and he iea tos tart anothe war was needed desperately by corrupt elements in Washingon - including he miliay and senior pliians amd army leades involved,

The level of maladministratin and corrupion in all Government Departments in Wahington was limitless and the DOD was and remains up to their necks imvovled, in corrupt activities related to the war in Ukraiine tht is driving the actual war, ,