Balancing the Covid lives lost

Lockdowns are intended to reduce infections dramatically in the first wave of Covid. Carrying us through to a hopefully effective and safe vaccine. If that vaccine is not found the advisability of this approach diminishes and countries with higher herd immunity would be advantaged.
But let’s assume it is found and that the lockdown was implemented right at the start of the infection. Lets also assume for the sake of testing the theory that it’s completely effective. So what is the cost/benefit analysis?
To date with  lockdowns which were implemented late and imperfectly we have seen about 5 million infections globally over 3 months. If we double that rate  of infection for a Swedish style distancing but not lock down scenario, we would get 40 million infections for the year. That’s aggressive  as Sweden is only running at 1.6 times the Infection  rate in locked down Denmark.
But we know the reported infections are a fraction of those actually infected. Perhaps as many as 10 times more people are actually infected versus the reported numbers. That would give us as many as 400 million people infected if social distancing is followed as opposed to perfect airtight lockdowns. And social distancing is more or less what has happened even though we were briefly and imperfectly isolated and even though we managed to switch off vast segments of the economy.
How much life would be lost from these 400 million cases? Extrapolating known deaths against the infected population (known and assumed) has yielded a mortality rate of about 0.3% morbidity.  Which would give a total death count of 1.2 million by year end.....fairly plausible given we are currently at 344000 deaths after 3 months and many countries are seeing declining deaths. I’ll skip over all  the controversies about what constitutes a Covid death
There is also the prospect of better treatment. Hopefully of drugs which blunt the virus in the short term, but also of improvements in the regime for treating very sick patients, which are apparently being discovered in our hospitals.
Certainly 1.2 million deaths are a medical calamity. But the actual years of life lost are skewed by the nature of the disease which attacks the elderly. A Scottish study showed the average life lost in a Covid death is 10 years, or roughly 12% of an expected life. Which means in turn that roughly 144000 age weighted lives might be lost in the first year of Covid without ironclad lockdowns.
Contrast this with the million lives which the world loses every year from industrial activity:
‘ GENEVA (ILO News) - Over one million work-related deaths occur annually according to ILO estimates and hundreds of millions of workers suffer from workplace accidents and occupational exposure to hazardous substances worldwide, the Chief of the ILO's Health and Safety programme told delegates assembled today in São Paulo at the opening of the 15 th World Congress on Occupational Safety and Health.‘

These lives lost are those of younger people with perhaps 60% of their lives left.....equating to 600000 age weighted lives. So when we implement the lockdown, but maintain our standard of living, we pile up debt that has to be serviced by future economic activity and lives. 
One way of looking at this is the Covid bailout at $2.4  trillion represents roughly 12% of our $ 20 trillion GNP and paying for that largesse logically would cost 12% of the lives lost every year by economic activity. Globally that number would be 120000 lives or 72000 age weighted lives. We will pay this price either in lower standards of living or more likely in debt service.
That number by itself pretty much halves the age weighted 144000 lives saved by Covid lockdowns, even if it only takes the form of past lives squandered. Then there is the very real effect of the lockdowns on current health. There is little doubt lockdowns are having an increasingly negative effect on the 2.6 million Americans who die every year from disease and mental illness. Only a small shift in those numbers could  wipe out much of our  best case lockdown gains. And this effect is likely to impact several trailing years.
But of course there are strategies between doing nothing and complete lockdown which are not as flaccid as our existing imperfect compromise. New York data shows less that 1% of Covid deaths occurred in patients without comorbidities. A laser focus on protecting these people, especially a ‘hardening’ of nursing homes would likely have yielded far better morbidity results than the imperfect lockdowns we implemented. 

 We have pursued a ‘me too’ lockdown strategy born from the Chinese example but reaped the worst of all worlds.....poor morbidity results because of incompetent implementation and unnecessary damage  to our economic engine on which we all depend.  

Any person with half a brain can see that the "cure" is worse than the disease.

At what point do we begin discussing the motives.

For me, it's beyond politicking and ignorance.

Is it unreasonable to ask whether certain forces are intentionally attempting to crash the world economy? 

Rugby Legend

5807 posts

Any person with half a brain can see that the "cure" is worse than the disease.
While any person with more than half a brain can see the lockdown has reduced the "viral" load and bought time for an antibody test to be created. 

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Europe in some places had an estimated R rate over 4.0, which if allowed to get worse would have meant hospitals would have no spare beds.

Heavy exposure (viral load) to Coronavirus has proven to be worse, and many of the younger people that have died have had the most contact with people (E.g Nurses and Doctors, meat packers, bus drivers etc). 

The antibody test is being rolled out to NHS staff to identify everyone that has already had it- and therefore immune. It is an effective tool to get people back to work safely, can do international travel - and can be used in conjunction with the monitoring R rate to develop herd immunity at the right pace. 

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South Africa is a different story. The ANC are crooks and just using Coronavirus to steal more. Blocking the sale of cigarettes and alcohol is turning them into the mafia with an underground network supplying this off-license at hiked up prices.

“ The antibody test is being rolled out to NHS staff to identify everyone that has already had it- and therefore immune. “

There is no conclusive evidence of that. They are using blood, to test for antibodies, from people who have recovered and have been cleared, showing no more traces of the virus. It has however been widely reported that there are people who have fully recovered and have tested positive again.  

Shark,

I actually don't take anything you say even slightly seriously. You're just an ear connected to mouth with nothing inbetween.

Yes, you've demonstrated that countless times over the last two months. If you'd like, I'll keep slapping you around. I must confess even that novelty is wearing off.

@Ceradunce, the UK government has already bought the anti-body tests from Roche, and will start rolling them out next week to frontline NHS staff in the first instance. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52758523

I actually don't take anything you say even slightly seriously. You're just an ear connected to mouth with nothing inbetween.

Bwahahahahahahaahhaaha never a truer word spoken. Red shark i s as dumb as a rock! 

Plum so why thIs intention to crash the world economy. Very clear its deliberate. You NEED TO ANSWER this question.

To me Blair and Brown gave the game away.

Why is everything always a conspiracy for you lot?
WHO is a good organisation that adds value. 

The only major issue is that they are too weak. They should not have to ask to get entry into a country. They should be able to walk right in and have access to information as needed. China initially lied about their data, and the WHO's first recommendations were based on faulty data. Had WHO been able to get access to China right away, they could have made better recommendations.

“ Had WHO been able to get access to China right away, they could have made better recommendations. “

They actually chose to accept China’s lies without question and then defended and even praised China for the way they handled the virus. If it is true, as you are suggesting, that they had been denied access, then pray tell how they could accept the lies and even shower them in praises just like that? 

Truth is that it has now been revealed that some within the WHO wanted to get that main peanut of theirs to stop licking China’s behinds. And he ignored their warnings. 

“ This won't be accepted by the religious nut jobs who see this as globalism and the end of the world, the mark of the beast etc, etc.  “

You are beginning to look more and more like Eric Swalwell by the minute. Do you even realise how immensely immature you come across as?

Actually it was Taiwan who made them aware of the human to human transmission......the WHO never even responded. It has proven to be biased, incompetent and largely irrelevant in the Western countries. 

You fanatical atheists do not have mental capacity to understand the difference between conservative and far right. 

Having said that:

“ God calls you fools  “

Verse?

Oh, and BTW. I didn’t say anything about foolish. I said it comes across as immensely immature, and your reply only seem to confirm my observations regarding your lack of maturity. 

Here's a conspiracy for ya, Shark.

The USA is the most COVID affected country.

New York metro makes up close to 60% of the USA's infections.

The Governor of NY is being portrayed as a hero. The "Luv Guv".

His bro got COVID but survived. So we can trust him too.

Together they tell their audience jokes while said infection proportion is used as leverage.

Got your tinfoil hat out yet?

I don't know if this is true. But New York is the most COVID affected city on earth, isn't it?

Now, the same city that was at the heart of events the last time the world changed direction, seems to be taking centre stage again. 

I said, right at start, that I hope we aren't all less free when it's over. 

The Luv Guv and his bruv seem to have other plans though.

I just stated a few facts, Sharkie.

You did the rest yourself ;)

Atheists are according to God FOOLS. Must say one can only agree!

The Fool and God’s Response

14  Fools say to themselves, “There is no God.”
    They are corrupt and commit evil deeds;
        not one of them practices what is good.

2 The Lord looks down from the heavens upon humanity[a]
    to see if anyone shows discernment as he searches for God.
3 All have turned away,
    together they have become corrupt;
        no one practices what is good, not even one.

4 Will those who do evil ever learn?
    They devour my people like they devour bread,
        and never call on the Lord.

The demonrats got the Wuhan Virus ALL wrong. Now the snakes want to keep their states locked down . Lets see how America responds to this.

By the way WHO said the death rate was 3.4%. That started the panic. But as explained to the dumbass pair Redrooi and Redshark they never compared apples with apples.

Now dunces tell me how Tedros went wrong. Lets see if you learnt anything! Dumb as rocks these two clowns!

“ Posted by: Rooinek (10279 posts)

Cowardunce should be asking his pal Baboon-ou where god allegedly calls atheists fools. It wasn't Sharkbok who claimed that, it was Baboon-ou.   “

Ou Potkettlenek still calling me a coward, despite having been shown up again, a day or so ago. And no, I’m not going to search for it at your convenience. We both know you saw it and we both know that you do not have the balls to try again to debunk it at that time, let alone acknowledging that you were talking utter crap.

Now, I have decided to ask your lickspittle, Vrotvis to quote the verse because he was the one who asserted that God call certain folks fools. I know that you cannot wait to rescue your lackey from being demolished again. 

Now, just to nail you even further. There was no allegation of God calling atheists fools. What’s the matter? You been on the sauce again the whole day. This was what your lackey said:

“  @Ceradunce, you Beeno and other far-right religious zealots have no understanding of reality, and God calls you fools. “

Now, I know what is going to happen. You are going to suggest that ou Vrottie actually clearly said that Beeno suggested that God calls atheists fools”.

Then you are going to wait a while for some space between your reply and the last post on the tread and then come up with another way of saying the same in a question, wait a while again and ask a question again. Then start a new thread asking your question  again and then proceed to call me a coward. 

Not gonna work again. You got it wrong and you do not have the balls to admit it.

No further questions or remarks. The defence rests.