Recession chances are ‘close to 50/50,’ Clinton’s treasury secretary says

The chances of a recession in the U.S. are “close to 50/50,” Bill Clinton’s former treasury secretary warned, as major banks also raised the risk of an economic downturn.

The warnings from economists come amidst chaos and uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s trade war on Mexico, Canada and China. The president’s refusal to rule out a recession in an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News Sunday has also rocked the markets.

“I would’ve said a couple of months ago that a recession was really unlikely this year,” Larry Summers told CNN. “Now it’s getting close to 50/50.”

Summers called Trump’s tariffs a “self-inflicted wound” and the president’s back and forth with Mexico and Canada has not calmed the markets.

Monday narrowly escaped being a historically bad day on Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing. Tuesday wasn’t faring much better with the Dow down more than 400 points shortly after opening.

“All the emphasis on tariffs and all the ambiguity and uncertainty has both chilled demand and caused prices to go up,” Summers said. “We are getting the worst of both worlds - concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything down.”

Economists at JPMorgan Chase raised their risk of recession from 30 to 40 percent, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“We see a material risk that the U.S. falls into recession this year owing to extreme U.S. policies,” economist Bruce Kasman said.

Goldman Sachs economists raised its 12-month recession probability from 15 percent to 20 percent Friday, with the bank noting its forecast could get worse if the Trump administration remains “committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist at credit rating agency Moody’s, said that the risk of a recession in the U.S. in the coming year was “uncomfortably high and rising,” estimating a 35 percent chance up from 15 percent.

“For context, the typical recession probability is 15 percent - the U.S. economy historically suffers a recession every 6 or 7 years on average,” Zandi wrote on X. “The economy will likely suffer a downturn if the Trump administration follows through on the tariff increases it has announced and maintains those tariffs for more than a few months.”

“The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken,” president of global financial firm Yardeni Research, Ed Yardini, wrote. “They don't like tariffs, and they don't like mass firings of federal workers. That's because they don't like stagflation, and they fear that Trump 2.0's focus on these measures could cause a recession with higher inflation.”

Trump, meanwhile, has doubled down on his tariffs against Canada. “Canada is a Tariff abuser, and always has been, but the United States is not going to be subsidizing Canada any longer,” Trump fumed Monday on Truth Social. “We don’t need your Cars, we don’t need your Lumber, we don’t your Energy, and very soon, you will find that out.”

Blame Trump for everyth ing - after all fighting corruption and maladministation is a real course for a downturn in the economy, Aside from that Government spending must be cut since most of it does contribute to inflation - and virtually zero to enhancement of the GDP. A much worse scenaro would be to continue with spending money the USA has to Borrow mioney reducing the country into total financial disaste by 2028 when the debts would reach double of wht the GDP prduce and the Government will have to spend 50$ of all sources fo revenue would have to be used for debt and inmterest payments and with that social security and defense spending would have to be cut by 50% or taxes raised to a non-sustainable level.

Most pf what the media claim is happening is based on lies - for instance there is no funding cuts in the budget for Mediccare and Mediaid - what there is is an evaluation of corrupt payments made from those 2 funding sources which the auditors claimed to be in excess of $100 billion a year.. That needs to be cleared up and funding for medical care of illegal migrants are not going to be funded by those two organizations anymore.

In the period 2023 to 2024 the Bien Adnministration raise the number of Federsl Public Servants increse from 1 964 000 to 3 240 000 and it is not even clear whether they are even working for tfeir monthly salries or even real people since 94% o the Pubic Servants never went to their offices once for he past three years. Of those the TRC staff was doubled and required to carry arms. - so Trump send tthem to the Southern Boader - but many could not be found anyway..

Tariffs are not really the issue - the absolute ened for mass firing of public serbvants is - but the latte does not undermining performances since the system is rotten to the core, Please note that the people quoted abiove are both Democrat supporters and their dire poredictions are based on the Democratic Pary panic over what is happening. There are indications that massive fraud is a very real problem that needs to be solved.

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Shitory

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The fact is their heroes support in the USA stands at 31% for the ultraas-corrupt Democratic Party, So of the economic situation BS spreadin g on this ite is unbelievsble. So all I know is that three posters are totally observed in sprreading shit stories on site,

Trump fighting bribery and corruption and try to implement proper management to the USA Federal Government is sending the Democrats into hysteria. Where everyone bar the voter suffer as a result they made sure they got eveything, The crooks did not need to go to work for 3 years and got their salaies evey month, No wonder everything went down the drain when Biden was puppet President.

America is an absolute joke.

They are becoming no one's friend.

HOPELESSNESS..........

If it was not for the USA and especially the Repblican Party A ustraloa and New Zea;md would have been occupied by the Chinese as well, Biden was innvovled in corrupt activities and the Chinese has the evidemce that would have left his family in jail and Biden himself in an asylum for dementia sufferers, The fact is that as corrupt as Biden was iro China - th case in Ukraine it was even worse,

Fact is the banks informed the FBI that the Bidens were invovled in money-laundering by using shelf companies to launder money to members of the Bden family. Knowing that it would have destoyed the USA Government they refused to investigate the Bank warnings abd he mainstrem media kbows what happened and kept it secret. For instance in House hearings on the issue - the banks provided the copies of the wsrnings they sent to the FBI to Congress. When Wray as Head f the FBI was confronted on the issue and being under oath je forst lie and claimed that the warnin gs did not exist and when the House members sh owed him copies of the warnings existed he said he will provide the House with the FBI report on the issue, In December last year he provided copies in which critcal info was deducted and he then refused to answer further question to Cong ressm Th at is why W ray resihned as FBI head and he resigned ,with close of service ending bein g the day before Trump was sworne in. His roe in covering up corruption and lies about it in the House and Senate he thought he was out of trouble - but his lies on issues to the Congress is in itself a croinal fence with a jail sentence of 6 ears and he will get abut life when the lies we given a sentence for each case he would spent at least 30 year in jail,

In desperation the Australian Government ordered the French to provide 32 submarines to teh Aussie navy as a means to prevent a potential Chinese attack on ustralia, In a cnversion with the usie Prime Minister Biden advised him t terminate the orders from French and promised to instead provid 8 nuclear driven subs to Australiam So here is a question - did he Biden Administration over the past four years provide any new-clear powered submaines to Australia, I have been unable to find out if any of the submarines were n at deliverd to Australia, Would indeed by suprised if that was the case - since in terms of budg etary provisisons the USA for its on navy nes tc osntruct 2 new subs per yeat and would also service and maintain existing submarines, A Senate investigation revealed that in the four yeaars Biden was President instead of 8 such new submarines 2 was provideed and of the 60 such submarines 20 was wirhdrawn for servicing. So did the Biden Aministration delivered the promised 8 subs to the Australian navy? Could find no evidence on the issue - but there may be more info on that score in the Aussie media, Would indeed ve urprised if anything wasdeliered ti the Aussies,

So if itesas nt for Trump you would have been living in President Z's colomy by now, I woukd be very afraid of a Chinese invasion if I were you.- the Chinese navy was already doing live-fire raining in he ocean ebween Astralia and New Zealand, The eladers of coutries worldwide fear Trump because when he said he wik do something hey know he will execute what he will say would be the result,

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