Republicans gamble on Trump

Donald Trump’s dominance of the primaries on Super Tuesday means the die is cast for a rerun of his 2020 match with President Biden. Hard to believe: The two major parties are marching to nominate perhaps the only candidates who could lose to the other. It’s America’s great presidential unpopularity contest.  This isn’t to gainsay Mr. Trump’s triumph in the GOP primaries. He lost only two contests—in Vermont and the District of Columbia to Nikki Haley. He underperformed his polling in most states, but his strength among Republicans makes us wonder in retrospect if anyone could have beaten him this year as he ran almost as an incumbent seeking a second term. Like or loathe Mr. Trump, this is an unprecedented modern achievement. Richard Nixon was nominated three times but not in a row.

Yet this result wasn’t always certain. Fifteen months ago, in the wake of the GOP’s disappointing midterm showing for Mr. Trump’s candidates, the former President looked like a weakening political force. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was on the rise.

Mr. Trump then charged into the race and spent months trashing Mr. DeSantis before the Governor formally entered the contest. The former President ducked the GOP debates, betting that his standing as a quasi-incumbent would carry the day. He was also helped by fond voter recollection of the Trump economy, especially after the Biden inflation.

It’s possible the race was over once Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Braggindicted him for hush-money payments on jerry-rigged felony charges that should be no more than a misdemeanor. Mr. Trump jumped in the primary polls and kept rising despite the successive indictments. (See the nearby polling timeline.) 

The Democratic lawfare strategy worked in reverse on Republicans, though we suspect this was the White House hope all along. Mr. Biden, his party and the press all want Mr. Trump as the GOP nominee because they think he’s the easiest to beat. 

The public mood is nonetheless setting up what should be a GOP triumph in November. Mr. Biden’s approval ratings are in Jimmy Carter territory, and three quarters of the country thinks he is too old to run for a second term. Most voters don’t like the results of his policies on the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and nearly everything else. 

Mr. Biden’s electoral bargain in 2020 with Bernie Sanders hasn’t paid off as his leftward policy lurch has produced a popular backlash. The 2020 coalition that elected him is fraying, as Hispanics, black men, young voters and independents turn away. Yet the polls show Mr. Biden is only down from two to five points in head-to-head polling despite all of his political infirmities. 

And that’s the gamble the GOP is taking by elevating Mr. Trump one more time. Republicans are nominating a candidate the public knows well—and who most Americans say they don’t like. Mr. Trump never reached 50% approval in the Gallup survey across his Presidency. His unfavorable ratings today are exceeded only by Mr. Biden’s—57% to 59% in the recent Fox News survey.

The reason is that Mr. Trump brings his own negative baggage that Democrats will reprise over the next eight months. Mr. Trump has benefited from being less in the news than Mr. Biden, but the Republican will be front-and-center every day as the campaign fires up. 

Mr. Biden will poke at him like a dancing bear, hoping he’ll act up and remind voters why they ousted him four years ago. His Covid and other first-term outbursts will return in TV ads, as will his disgraceful post-election behavior leading to and including Jan. 6. GOP voters may have come to discount the events of that day, but we’ll find out if that’s true about swing voters in the swing states that have turned against the GOP in the Trump era.

Mr. Trump has been the greatest Democratic turnout machine since FDR, and that includes Barack Obama. Every time voters have gone to the polls since Mr. Trump’s first victory in 2016, Republicans have lost or underperformed: 2018, 2020, 2021 in Georgia Senate races, 2022, and 2023 in special elections. 

Then there are the court cases. The Bragg indictment goes to trial this month, and a conviction in New York is possible. The other three criminal trials may be pushed beyond Election Day, though it’s not impossible that either the documents case or the Jan. 6 conspiracy case could go to trial in the late summer or fall. A third or so of GOP voters in Super Tuesday exit polls said they’d find a conviction disqualifying.

We think the Democratic alarms about a Trump coup against democracy are overwrought. There’s no doubt the Trump Presidency was a stress test for U.S. institutions, but the checks and balances held. It’s more likely that Republicans who think a Trump restoration will usher in some new political realignment will be disappointed. A second Trump term would check the left, for a time, but it would also likely be four long years of political trench warfare.

These columns haven’t endorsed a presidential candidate since 1928, and we aren’t about to do it with these two nominees. Our job is to inform readers about the candidates, their policies and the campaigns they run so you can make up your own mind. No doubt that will upset partisans on either side, depending on the day or the issue, since so many view a victory by the other side as the end of America as we know it. 

We think the U.S. is sturdier than that. But the parties are leaving Americans with an unhappy presidential choice, and we have to report on the world as it is, not as we’d wish it to 

An adult view of this curious state of affairs from the WSJ.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/07/donald-trump-voter-liberals

Within Trump’s wild exaggerations are grains of truth. Liberals have never dealt with them – and that’s why he might win again

Donald Trump is certain to be the Republican candidate in this year’s election for US president. He is also currently favourite to win. To most readers of the Guardian, I am sure this prospect is appalling, as it is to most Britons. The nation to which they gave birth and language, that has been their friend and protector down the ages, seems to be going mad.

Britons who know the US are amazed that, however reluctantly, enough of its voters might again choose Trump to rule over them after the experience of 2017 to 2021. Who are these Americans? How can they be so blind to his faults, with the law hounding him, gossip ridiculing him and commentators pouring scorn and derision on his every word?

The answer is that the Americans who support Trump are not those whom most Britons know. They are elderly and rural: they are often, but by no means solely, working class and/or non-graduates. But, above all, they love Trump because they, too, are hostile to the Americans that he purports to hate.

These hated Americans – the language of Trump’s rallies is visceral – mostly live in big cities down the east and west coasts. They favour federal government, identity politics, social liberalism and free trade. They are led by a college-educated, liberal establishment. Of course, these are generalisations – but that is what Trump trades in.

rump is the braggart of every bar-room brawl. Most democratic leaders come to power with their rough edges softened through climbing the ladder of party politics. Not so Trump. The only experience he brought to the White House was that of New York’s property jungle, a world of rivalry, double-dealing and revenge; his favourite motto is the phrase he used in January towards his now fallen rival Nikki Haley: “I don’t get too angry, I get even.”

A large amount of the abuse that Trump attracts from his critics disappointingly relies on raw snobbery. It comprises attacks on his dress, his manners, his vulgar houses and his coarse turn of phrase – and echoes the remarks of English toffs on the arrival of the first Labour government in Downing Street. They do him no harm in the eyes of his fans. Early comparisons with Mussolini played to his self-image as a warrior taking on an entrenched elite.

See it through their eyes: the US did not collapse into dictatorship under Trump. Enemies were not arrested nor hostile media shut down. Since leaving office, though, his own enemies have not stopped trying to convict and imprison him, even as the trials merely aid his cause. Colorado’s attempt to stop him running for office was as legally wrongheaded as it was counterproductive.

The US economy did well under Trump, better than Britain’s. He made a genuine if futile attempt to find peace in Korea. Vladimir Putin, with whom his relations remain obscure, did not invade Ukraine while he was in the White House. His recent demand that Nato and Europe reassess both their strategy and their forces was hardly unreasonable, if poorly expressed. His fixation with immigration is hardly confined to the American continent.

That is why Trump’s enemies would do well to look to the causes of their own unpopularity. Democracy gives no quarter. It is one person, one vote, and its believers cannot complain when the arithmetic goes against them. Trump complains that the US ruling class and its media – apart from the bits he controls – are governed by new ideologies based on gender and race. He claims they want to ban conservatism from campuses, “defund” the police and flood the country with Mexican labour and Chinese goods. There is just enough truth in these accusations to have his supporters cheering him on.

A prominent US senator recently assured a private gathering in London that Americans would never return Trump to the White House. It was inconceivable. Those declaring for him were just “just trying to give us a fright”.

I can only hope he is right. With the present state of things in the world, the erratic Trump should never be in a position to lead what is still, tenuously, the free world. But those who oppose him should study what makes him so popular in the eyes of most Americans – and makes them less so.

Simon Jenkins, another one of the Kremlin's useful idiots.

I think the WSJ is underestimating the dangers of a second Trump Presidency but its pretty clear most American's really want two different candidates. Pretty much anyone else at this point.

An adult view from the Wall Street Journal?   Is Biden an adult or a dementia sufferer ? 

Stav I don’t really have that concern. There are so many checks and balances in the US system….the house, the senate, the courts, even the military’s oath to the constitution. But the divisions are likely to hamper a second Trump presidency, in a volatile world a hamstrung president is a risk.

On the other hand having a president who whose ability to make decisions in the moment is non existent is also a huge risk.

Like many over here I’m hoping the world will be spared another on golden pond presidency. Neither of these men could run most public companies in the US which have mandatory retirement age limits  for sensible reasons..

Who is the hamstrung candidate Mozart ?   Is it the one who promised a key job and then drew up a letter calling  parents who protest at school board meeting about education Domestic Terrorists and let the parents be subjected to illegal investigation of 278 000 people which the FIS Courtg identified as illegal investigations.    

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Well Biden made a pretty fiery State of the Union address tonight that sounded more like a campaign speech. Biden has one overriding hurdle, his age. My guess is he will have persuaded some voters, even if it was inappropriate for the occasion. It’s going to be a pretty ugly year in American politics.

M/ozart

You may believe otherwise - but  in most cases Biden turned anything he touched into shit.    He started off his speech about Ukraine as a lie.   The story about Russia attacking anybody ois real BS.    The USA meddling in Ukraine and appointing Ministers from the Banderas movement - based entirely on hatred of Russians  - caused the start of the Civil War in Eastern Ukraine.    The same people the US appointed were those threatening the removal from the Ukraine through ethnic cleansing.    In any evnt the lie is confirmed by the fact that the 2014 coup resulted in discarding of the 1991 Ukraine Constitution and there is nothing left of Democracy in Ukraine through - 

*    total lack of Press freedom;

*    banning of people speaking their hiome language (Russian) in public and fining them fco that;

*    arresting Ukraine Parliament members because they speak Russian in their homes and keeping them in jail since February 2022 - that is after the same members two weeks earllier supported a motion to condemn any possible attack on Ukraine by Russia;

*     banning the functioning of the Ukraine Orthodox church - with 80% of all Ukrainians are members of;

*     censoring of all news media in Ukraine and did not allow freedom of speech in the country; and 

*    operation of dangerous bio-labs by the USA in Ukraine.

The USA  is funding the full budget of the Ukraine Government leaving the country with no responsibility for any final authority in the hands of the US Government iro total control over the country.

The article also refer to court cases involving  Trump -- none of the charges would have taken place if Trump did not decide to run for the Presidency and there is n proof of anything Trump did wrong.   The charges are political BS and meddling aside from that the Democrats now wants a law passed to ban Tr5ump from running in the election.   

Biden' BS about the 6 January protests being  an insurrection attempt is a political lie as well.    In any e vent it was used to the  maximum in the 2022 mid=term election and much information on the so-called insurrection was disproved as propaganda BS.  The handling of the court cases is BS as well.  Why was the security camera footage withheld from the lawyers supposedly defending the jailed people.   Why was  there no charges brought against based on insurrection.  The Supreme Court ruling was clear on the issue - they would not allow undermining of of free elections by means of  banning candidacy based on fake charges that has not been proven in a court of law.    

The leftist attacks on the police by the Democrats through reduction of budgets has hamstrung the police and the freeing of people even arrested for murder without bail - is not enhancing law and order in the USA..   His story in his speech of reduction of murders the past year compared to previous year is BS.   

The other issue - which I hate more than anything else is the fact that under Biden's presidency he has caused ex-USA allies  to join BRICS , because of fear that the USA will repeat the Ukraine interference  resulting in unconstitutional government change will happen in their countries as well.    By joining BRICS the countries are protected from attacks by the USA - like the case is with Iran.   Placing a ship in the Red Sea to protect shipping is about as effective as the Afghanistan flight from Kabul was.   In essense since 2021 under Biden the world has become unstable  because Biden is losing control of the world caused by instability that has arisen as a result of weak leadership in the USA.

Despite the rant about protecting the totally absent democracy in Ukraine - the House will not pass the act providing aid to  Ukraine.    Lastly Biden's rant about the border issue is the normal BS spouted by the Democrats - he wants to process the influx of people better - but that will not end anything - it will even increase the number of illegals flooding into the USA.   Aside from that there is no need for a new act - all the Biden Administration is not applying the present legislation and doing  it by mandates provided by Biden.   Trump did the same - but Biden on his first day in office cancelled it and tell people all over the world they are welcome to come to the USA.    

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One more thing  - the last time  Trump delivered the State of the Union address -  Pelosi toe up the speech copy given to her - the present speaker was quite polite and diid ntoi behave like a corrupt individual like Pelosi.     

Totally clueless, all these things you think are huge, aren’t. State of the Union addresses are a chance to see the President live for the longest time in his term. The question was whether Biden could keep it all together. He did quite well, with limited stumbles.

Read this:

 ‘ After Biden spoke, a CNN poll found that 62 percent of people who watched the speech said the policies that the president proposed would move the country in the right direction. The poll of 529 people was conducted by researchers SSRS. The margin of error is +/-5.6 at the 95 percent confidence level

Meanwhile, experts said Biden had performed well in the speech. Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek that Biden's performance was "vigorous" and "combative."

"So the gloves are off. Joe Biden gave a vigorous, combative performance last night, taking the attack directly to Donald Trump without ever mentioning his name," Shanahan said.

……

If Biden is competent, he wins…last night he helped his cause.Not because I want him back, but because that’s what’s going to happen given 50% of the country won’t vote for Trump under any circumstances.

This  is the view of  a prominent Democrat being  honest about the issues that bothes the U JS voters:-

 https://www.foxnews.com/video/6348434856112

Biden looked like a deranged angry despot...

He’s always looked that way…..a nasty man. But critically he took on the hecklers and was quite adroit. Which is why a younger, more likeable Republican candidate was called for, not another angry, old man.

If Biden is president again, we're in big trouble...BIG FCN TROUBLE!!!!

"Here are the top accomplishments Biden covered during his speech:

1. Creation of several brand new words: This will be accomplished just during the speech itself.
2. Finalization of the Louisiana Purchase: He will announce he hammered out the deal with Napoleon last week.
3. The Mexico-Egypt border has been totally secured and there are no problems down there whatsoever: But if there is a problem, it's the MAGA Republicans' fault.
4. War with Samoa has been averted: Diplomacy has won out despite Biden's primary loss on Tuesday.
5. Unprecedented financial security for Ukrainian oligarchs: We can't allow these dear people to face retirement without a solid nest egg.
6. Imported millions of new voters: It's a brand new America, folks.
7. Raised dementia awareness: Americans have never been so keenly aware of the signs of senility.
8. Record number of military personnel wearing skirts: Some of them are even women.
9. Earned a gold star for going potty in the toilet three days in a row: Breaking his personal record.
10. Became the first president in history to bring the country to the brink of civil war, revolutionary war, and world war simultaneously: The history books are being re-written right before our eyes.

Looking at the list above, it's plain to see that it's ridiculous for anyone to claim Joe Biden doesn't do anything. Just think of what he could do with four more years!

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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zGWuGsdoAvI

https://okmagazine.com/p/jimmy-kimmel-trolls-donald-trump-another-bizarre-off-topic-ramble/

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Trump is as fit as a fiddle...way sharper than Brandon...his ADHD isn't that bad and is actual more than an advantage than a hurdle...I  understand what he's saying crystal clear...the left's take on his cognitive ability is deceptive and just stupid to boot...grabbing at straws....

...and they dare call Trump the Nazi...

You'll have a hangover in the morning ............................

nope...I'm easy on the Stella's...working tomorrow...cheers anyway.

remain in denial ........... burp

Mozart

The man is a Democrat and was in the primary elections previously.   He is not really anything other than that.  He as a political person knows why Biden is remote from the ordinary people and they suffer a a result.    Unlike the leftist media Fox often has discussions with Democrats and they also have  Democrats on Discussion panels.   So they look at things  differently - for instance they were sympathetic and ib some cases they supported Haley her campaign .   Some of their staff  are Democrats as well,   In fact in the main Fox News are a news broadcaster - not spreading propaganda BS  like the liberal and leftist media BSters does.

BB

The tripe you put on site is not worth anything.    The facts are I never used propaganda B S  andx you  always do.      There are some sources that Beeno use are of similar value.   In any event you are welcome to listen to shit lies and distortions  - but ii recognise what it really is and wonder whether the spreaders have no shame?   .    .    

ouMaaik, you're a faithful Zbot ................. I'll give you that.

Well - there si only one chance for the doddering  Biden can win the election and that would be from massive election fraud.   Biden was a disaster as President thus far and 76% of the voters does not even want him to run as DP candidate,    He has made enemies of the Blacks and Hispanics according to opinion polls.       

ouMaaik, you're a gambling man ................... my money's on sleepy Joe.

I'll send my $$$ to, lets say, Becs ..................... you do likewise.

On (after) judgement day our English rose will pay the winner.

bump...............

Ou blobbie is relying on election fraud. Everyone knows Trump wins in a fair election. 

Trump is unable to make his - 500 Million bond, no US finance company will take the risk.
Maybe Putin or some other actor wanting to sabotage America will post the cash.