South Africa General Election on 29 May 2024

With the election being justa bout 48 days away the situation is that latest opinion polls are going to cause the fall of the ANC from being  the Governing Party to a party seeking seeking coalition partnrs.

According to the support at present is as follows:-

ANC              - 37%   

DA                - 25%

Zuma Party   -  13%

EFF               - 12 %

he DA is in alliance with 7 other smaller parties - the bidggest of which is the IFP - and six other parties that will have members in Paliament.   

My only guess as new President will be Naledi Pandor - the present Foreign Affairs  - who have a reputation of ebing honest, truthful and admire by suppoters and oponents for those facts by all parties an one of a few ANC membes that can be trusted a a good Administer.

She gave Blinken a lecture  on negotiating a peace settlement in Ukraine  and when he tried to concivnce her othewqise she told him he is wasting her time. That in turn is worse news for the USA relationship with  SA.   The  last meeting  Pandor gave Blinken a lecture on negotiations  insteasd of war and when he tried to convine her to support the USA in the Ukraine war she send h im packing.  

Sow what is the USA going to do in an unstable political siuation in SA - are they going to decide on the election of the crooks in the EFF and he Zuma Party to be inc harge in SA by threats and  bribes to take over power in SA?   .        

BB

Thanks for the above - it must be a photo promoting tourism used in Germany - the German nam for Cape Town is on the photo.  LOL

However, the only part of SA still under proper Government control is the Western Cape and it still is a safer province to be in than in other parts of SA.     

There were two opinion polls done in SA over the past year,   In the one dome 6 monhs ago the ANC support amongst the electorate wass as 42% support and the Democratic Alliance at 21%.   That pole was in line with the local govenment election in 2021.    In the latest poll last month the situation change against the ANC even further and heir support si down to 37% and the DA would get benefits from that swing.   

Based on that poll the ANC who at present have 254 members in Parliament the number would decrease to  circa 138 members - with the DA having circa 100 members.    The  new Zuma Party will have circa 52 members and the EFF circa 48 members.   So the question si what will the new SA Government looks like in June.   Much of the Zuma support will come from ethnic Zulus - while the EFF main support base is amongst the Pedi's from Limpopo province -  so tribalism does play a role in SA.   My own guess is the new Govenment will be an alliance of the ANC and DA  - but that will put Ramaphosa under pressure and the end result is that the President will be an ANC member and the Deputy President a DA member.  

Based on the above  Parliament would have the following number of members:-

*    The ANC            -           138

*     DA                                  100

*    Zuma Party                        52

*    EFF                                    48

*    Smaller Parties                   62    *

There is an alliance of 7 smaller parties and the DA - inclusive of Inkatha and six othes.   If that materialize the kingmakers will be the DA and not the ANC.   I cannot see Ramaphosa being in the picture - hence my comments that Mrs Pandor may end up being the President and a DA member being the VP - but that is going to have its own pitfalls,   

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BB

Thank you - really funny,   

Zapiro has attained a level of cartoons rarely qualled by anybody else in  the world.    His aappraisal of Biden double-talk on Israel is a classic as well.   He has to keep h e Muslim voes in the USA hjappy and twisted his narrative to pacify the Jewish voters as well.    Petty politics is a disaster whn t comes to rcipled action in democrcacy.