The Great Replacement Theory - Fact or Fiction?

Some UK stats:

White Birth rate = 1.4

Muslim Birth rate = 2.4

If Muslims are 10% of the population, it will take 150 years for them to be the majority (Over 50%).

Although it will be much faster, with all the illegal immigrants and refugees.

The claim uses a basic demographic projection model assuming constant total fertility rates (TFR) of 1.4 for "Whites" and 2.4 for Muslims, starting from Muslims at 10% of the population, to estimate when Muslims exceed 50%.

Solving iteratively, the Muslim share reaches ~52% after about 26 generations (roughly 150 years at 25-30 years per generation), matching the claim's endpoint.

This does not factor in the continued illegal immigration and refugee status.

Their is an estimated 250 million refugees in the world in 2025

This is expected to increase to 1-2 billion by 2050. Mostly Muslims, and blacks from Africa. (Some of this is expected from climate change, not just increasing wars from over population).

If the model really thinks 26 generations at 25/30 years a generation equals 150 years it’s math is as bad as Vaccine’s. It would be interesting to see the results of a model that includes immigration.

In the US the ‘non Hispanic white’ population has dropped from 69% in 2000 to 57% in 2026. That’s more than I would have thought.

Another factor that affects the importance of immigrant groups is concentration. A NY city mayor who is a Muslim is a remarkable outcome given 9/11. The strength of Muslims in Minnesota demonstrates the power of coalescing around a particular city, particularly with State autonomy on many issues.

True, I used Perplexity. (26 generations)... However, I think the result of 150 years is correct for a group of 10% to become over 50%, with a fertility rate of 1.4 versus 2.4

Birmingham, one of the bigger cities, is an example of immigration group concentration. 32% of the population is Muslim, and will reach 50% in the not-so-distant future.

You're assuming the birth rates for both remain the same, both are declining. Aside from that it's impossible to predict birth rates and immigration rates 150 years into the future and further aside to all of that you and I will be long dead by then and so will our children.

It may be impossible to predict birth rates with certainty. However, we can look at historical data to project the future. What we do know now is that the fertility rate of Mulims is currently almost double that of white people. What data can we use to assume that Muslims will reduce their fertility rate?

The rate to maintain a population size in the 21st century is 2.1%. Anything less than 2.1% indicates a declining population size. So whites are declining, while Muslims are decreasing.

I do not want Europe ever to become a non-white majority- long after I die.

Nor do the Japanese want Japan to ever not be majority Japanese, as do China being majority Chinese and so on.

Perhaps this is racist, perhaps not; however, most people from a place where their heritage has lived for thousands of years feel the same way.

With regards to immigration rates, we do know that the refugee crisis is getting worse - and could be 500% worse by 2050.

The problem is the fact that poitical leadership in the Unted Kingdom is weak and that means weak implementation of policies left to the UK Civil Service blundering along like happened under the Autopen Presidency in the USA,

In the UK Starmer is weak and changes his ideas on a virtual daily basis, The Consrvatve Party leader is a Nigerian-borne Black. A number of to Reform Party leaderdhip is from Indian and Muslim heritage, The situation is at present that even the political situation is cavng in.

The other main stabilizing situation is weak with only the following Royal workers Under 65 years of age being Prince William and Princess Katherine and The Dukes and Duchess of Edinburgh. The rest being over 75 years of age, The result is that the four people mentioned are used by the UK Govrnment to promote Economic, Tourism and welfare work inside the UK and worldwide,

Fact is the United Kingdom was a world wide force in the past - at present it is a world wide failure without a sound cultural base, Immigation without proper control will only add to the problems facing the UK. Even their commpetitiveness in sport is declining in the 21st century,

Perhaps this is racist, perhaps not; however, most people from a place where their heritage has lived for thousands of years feel the same way.

It is not racist to want to preserve your culture and heritage from slowly being completely eroded...... hence why I have such a strong opinion on this issue, because that is 100% happening

It is very funny. Wanted to tackle this non sense a long time ago because it shows how convoluted the liberal way of thinking is.

White people at the moment are racially very insecure, liberal nations were the pioneers in globalisation and right now, white people are forced in the situation a common white person has little to no value on the globalised white market. They are obsolete. White people usually like to depict themselves as people designing rockets, large infrastructures etc which is the case for a minority of them. Yet the mass of them is unable to do that. As they have no value on the global work market, they find value in the preservation of the white race. That is their only value.

Indeed, there is a great replacement in action in Europe: the replacement of European populations by white people. And that is the great replacement liberals can not talk about, instead they prefer to harp about migrants etc...

The OP reflects that already: it is about white people disappearance, not about disappearance of any European populations. It is already framed. Everyone is a white person in Europe (except those who are not white)

As usual, with liberals, it is so bad, it is empty it takes walls of text to try to fill in. It is how they operate, stated it many times, they look for submission.

OP:

White Birth rate = 1.4

Muslim Birth rate = 2.4

It opposes race to a religion, yes, peeps, it is read properly. Muslims can not be white people. If even there are white Muslims, all that drivel that is absolute non sense is even worse. Even if it is hard to believe. So if all non white Muslims were to convert to Islam, they will no longer be white.

There is indeed a great replacement in action in Europe: the replacement of any European population by white people. Any country in Europe will remain what it is as long as it is peopled with white people. So much culture preservation.

The creation of the white was the obliteration of the European cultures in the US. And peeps, remember that US white denizens are not culturally British, they are white people. The mattering divider in the US is race, not culture.

Fact....been a long time in the makin....it will fail, again...