The Maths of Coronavirus...how the numbers compound by Italian analyst

For Mozart.

I don't know if this makes sense but if correct, it could spell total disaster.

A friend of mine who knows this Italian quite well sent me this on whatsap.

https://youtu.be/wEPryA-JlPY

The Italians have an extraordinary death rate from this disease....north of 10% if you assume a fair number of critical patients will die. It’s tragic.
 I have spent a fair amount of time in Milan, and I always enjoyed the scene. Go to a Milanese restaurant and everybody seems to know each other. That may have fostered the initial surge.
 The transmission rate and the recovery rate govern the mathematics. China and Korea crushed the transmission rate. Germany and Austria have spectacular recovery rates.
The projections always look awful until the transmission rate is depressed below 1.0 .....social distancing. That part will be hard in SA.....but the outdoor life and sunshine should help. Humidity also helps making the droplets heavier so they float in breathing range for a shorter time. According to that Natal should be safest.
So far there is little incidence  of deaths in Africa or the ME.