Opinion polls are not a reliable source to determine real political situations. when such sourtces are used for ulterior purposes such as -
* creating a false impression about the popularity of politicians;
* trying to protect the reputation of certain politicians; and
* trying to influence the outcome of elections by providing information that could make people feeling hopeless and for that reason not voting at all.
Be it as it may I still wondered how the opinion polls in the 2016 elections got the polling so wrong. I consequently made a study recently of what happened in some States as to the forecasts made by pollsters and found out that in States won by Trump the polls in general -
* under- estimate the Trump support between 8 and 30% and even higher in crucial states;
* in no state was there an over-estimnate of Trump support.
Looking at the media boarding on hate campaigns against Trump I could understand how the polls mostly commissioned by the media or universities to use polling as one of their weapons to fight Trump. Commentators on election night said they do not know how they got it so wrong and CNN blamed racism as the reason for the larger than normal turn up of voters to vote for Trump. At least some commentators were more honest when they stated that -
* the standard of living of working people deteriorated over the last two decades; and
* workers were worried that relocating of industry to countries outside of the USA could cause them to lose their jobs;
The industrial states mostly effected by the closing of factories in the USA were called the "Rust Belt" States. Those were basically Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump won in all four states. In other States effected with blue collar workers - ie in Illinois, New Hampshire, Maine and Connecticut the DP won - but with vastly reduced margins.
Now back to the present - the media used all kinds of mechanism to discredit Trump and in the end it became more evident that the campaigns are not really successful in the elections and in the present scenario, There are strong support in the media of socialist leftists as potential candidates in 2020 and it is evident that in the main the voters in most states are rather conservative in outlook and one wonders how the present polls are repeating the same mistake they made in 2016.
In any event back to the present scenario as to polls for what hey are worth. The following should perhaps be borne in mind:-
Latino Vote
In states like California, New York and Illinois where Latinos who came from foreign countries and were not born in the USA, in the mentioned states more than 75% of the Latino votes went the way of the DP. In States were the largest component of voters were born in the USA the situation was slightly different - eg Texas and Florida the situation was different and the DP support was 65%.
The Latinos were influenced by the campaign and especially the remarks of Trump about illegal migrants and there was fairly widespread fear of what could happen if Trump was in fact elected. However, what really happened was vastly different from what the Latinos feared and the Latinos themselves is worried by the large influx of illegal migrants who -
* threatened their livelihoods and standard of living; and
* the influx of criminals from Mexico and other countries to the south of Mexico already creating havoc in their neighborhoods.
Aside from that issue Latinos are not a homogenous group. They come from a variety of countries - like Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela and other central and South American countries. There is differences on their political approach. Take for instance the Venezuelans. In the past they were solidly behind the DP - but with the present scenario with prominent DP speakers basically supporting the regime of Madero in Venezuela they have clearly lost faith in the DP.
The situation must be seen as follows:-
* The DP must still decide where their Selection Congress would be held in 2020 and one of the cities mentioned is Miami. However, basically many Latinos suffered from socialist regimes in their countries of origin and they dislike Socialism. However, in recent reports Latinos indicated that there would be riots if Socialists like Bernie Sanders, Warren, Harris or O'Rourke are on the candidate list and present at the Congress,
* The University of Harvard has made a study of political viewpoints of the Latinos at present. They found that voter support at present is split 50:50 between the DP and the RP. That would show danger signals for the DP and they would be wise to ensure that the Socialist damage to the DP is reduced. A major problem for the DP is that a stayaway of Latinoi voter in 2020 will almost as bad as Latino's voting for the Rp
The Africa American Vote
In 2016 the DP got 88% of the Black vote with the rest going to the other candidates - essentially the RP.
In essence there seems to be differences developing between the older voters who supported the DP since the 1960's are not really inclined to change their political allegiance - while the younger voters are thinking more or less on unemployment, threats to safety and to their employment opportunities.
According to the latest opinion polls only 59% describe themselves as Democrats - sharply down from 2016 (88%). Interesting enough in allegiance the respondents identified themselves as follows:-
* Moderate - 44%
* Conservative - 27%
* Liberals - 26%
* Others - 3%
The African-American Voters are not necessarily aligned to the DP even though they voted over-whelmingly for that party. However, the DP would have to deal carefully with their selection of candidates and their future policy directions.
If the DP is not careful in their political direction in 2020 - they may reduce their support drastically through people staying away from voting or voting for other parties, As it is with the economy imrpving the DP may lose even more votes.
CONCLUSION
It is likely that if the present economic conditions persist the DP can lose as much as 25% of their support in the next elections from the African Americans and Latinos which could lead to the be left with support of only 50% in the Latino community with low voter turnouts also contribute to DP losses.
As stated before it is with their past history very difficult to believe what polls come up with - but a repeat of the false opinion polls of 2016 would not really affect the voting patterns of voters. and though potentially losing support of circa 25% of the Latino and African-Amerian votes, .