UK forecasts 1million Covid Cases per day before the end of the year

 90,000 recorded today, but it is believed to be much higher than the reported figure as more people will be asymptomatic due to a booster jab. (Possibly as high as x5 the reported figure). 

 It is expected to be over 1million cases per day before the new year, without any form of social distancing like work from home. 

What will happen to the NHS?

This is the most crucial question. The answer depends on what fraction of the infections turn into hospitalisations, and how long people are admitted for. Last winter’s wave was driven by the Alpha variant, and before the rollout of vaccines, it hospitalised about 22% of cases in the 65-and-over age group. The vaccine program slashed that rate to 6%. Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has said that his worst-case scenario for Omicron is a return to those pre-vaccination hospitalisation rates. More optimistically, he said a booster might provide better protection against severe Omicron than two doses do against severe Delta.

When will we know more?

The UK Health Security Agency expects to have reliable data on the severity of Omicron and the effectiveness of vaccines against hospitalisation in the week between Christmas and the new year, or more likely the first week of January.

Given the high levels of previous Covid infection and vaccination in the UK, most cases of Omicron are expected to be mild: even if antibodies fail to block infection, T cells are expected to hold up fairly well against severe illness. But according to Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, 1 million infections a day would still put the NHS under considerable strain. That is because rather than being spaced out, the hospitalisations would happen all at once. “A million infections a day translates into a hell of a lot of hospitalisations, even if we get far fewer hospitalisations per case than we have in the past,” he said.

Panic button in full retreat.    This is nothing more than a mild version of cold rarely translated to not affecting the lungs  of people and that the panic reactors  to  BS spreaders ignore.    happeniong all at once - that calls for real fun from the movies.  .   

This is utter bs, even India with it’s vast population in the midst of the Delta variant got nowhere near a million cases a day. In fact the whole world has never exceeded a million cases in a day….the high is 905000 cases on April 29.

The Brits seem to have lost their stiff upper lip,

The weakness of democracy is where the rogues get into power.   That has always been the case and weak leaders resulted in destruction of the moral fiber in the countries concerned,    Countries like France and Italy  were  typical examples  of democracy failure in the 1950's and even afterwards,    Germany had a few strong leaders after WWII  - but that country is now in the same way as  Italy and France used to be - no coherent policy with the woke culture taking over.

The fact is the UK has been floundering along since the departure of  Churchill and only  Thatcher showed some backbone as UK leader - the rest was weak and useless garbage.   The USA  as leader of the democratic governance became  a joke under the Clinton regime and since then under every president bar Trump.   The present  US administration is a weak and  extreme leftist hogwash destroying the image of the country and seriously attacking the US constitution.             

:The UK is one of the few countries leading the fight against Covid.  
The UK was one of the first countries to create a vaccine - and this has saved millions of lives around the world. The likes of Africa sit with their hands out like beggars wanting freebies. 
All while being a breeding ground for new variants... "

Yes, and a supposed shithole country like South Africa identifies new strains better than you lot and we weather the storm better...at a fraction of the cost...as for breeding new strains...your Oxford vax probably caused the Alpha and the Beta strains...South Africa, UK and Brazil were the forst places the mutations emerged...coincidentally the 3 very same countries where the Oxford jab were tested .

There are stupid people everywhere - like the anti-vaxxers that believe the vaccine actually creates the virus and its variants. 

The variants have come from countries with the most infections. 

The first three variants came from South Africa, Brazil and the UK...coincidentally the 3 countries where the AstraZeneca has been trialed...also coincidental was that the AZ vaccine was useless against the SA variant and all the doses of vaccines were sent back by the SA government at a time South Africa was desperate to procure vaccines...a little bit of deductive reasoning makes it obvious, but yet the media and academia are silent about the obvious...

Covid-19 hospitalisations fall sharply in South Africa

In what could be good news for other regions battling omicron, the number of people in hospitals with Covid-19 fell by around 25 per cent

By

Will Brown,

 AFRICA CORRESPONDENT and 

Peta Thornycroft

 IN JOHANNESBURG

20 December 2021 • 6:58pm

Technicians wearing full body protection suits work inside a biosafety level 3 Covid-19 research laboratory at the African Health Research Institute (AHRI) in Durban, South Africa, on Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2021

Covid-19 hospitalisations have fallen sharply in South Africa after a spike last month when the country reported the world’s first omicron outbreak, in what could spell good news for other regions battling the new variant.

The number of people in hospitals with Covid-19 fell by around 25 per cent to 5,600 over the last week, according to data from the country's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD). 

The figures bolster recent reports indicating that the new highly mutated variant may not be as severe as other forms of Covid-19 like the beta or delta variants.

The news comes after South African officials announced late last week that fewer people have died or required hospital treatment from omicron despite a record number of new infections.

The seven-day rolling average for new infections in Gauteng province, the epicentre of South Africa's omicron wave, also declined sharply. Average daily infections in Gauteng fell from more than 10,000 to less than 8,000.

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“It really does seem as if…my country will escape relatively unscathed in this wave,” said Professor Tom Moultrie, a top demographer at the University of Cape Town.

However, Professor Moultrie stressed that South Africa's experience of omicron might be being shaped by the country's “horrendous” pandemic death toll and increased immunity among the population.

According to the South African Medical Research Council, the country of 60m has suffered more than 270,000 excess deaths – the number of deaths above the average of pre-pandemic years – since the pandemic began.

“What if South Africa's ‘light escape’…is because we ‘bought’ that present at horrendous cost during past waves,” said Professor Moultrie.

Experts also emphasised that data showing dropping infections in Gauteng must be treated with caution. The numbers are likely being skewed by the vast migration of people from Johannesburg and Pretoria back home to rural areas for the festive period.

The fear is that the mass exodus from Gauteng will contribute to an explosion of cases elsewhere in southern Africa.

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Most of those who travel to their home regions for Christmas do so on minibuses. On popular routes and at rush hour, many drivers will pack more than the limit of 22 passengers into the vehicle.

Meanwhile, omicron is spreading like wildfire across large parts of Eastern, Western, Central and Southern Africa.

Kenya, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, Malawi and Zambia are all seeing sharp upticks in cases.

Unlike South Africa, which has some of the highest vaccination rates on the continent, most people in these countries are yet to receive a single jab.

Moreover, daily testing figures are low in all these countries, so the full scale of the crisis may not be known until patients hit ICU units. 

I do believe that holiday makers from Johannesburg and Pretoria in holiday resorts  in my locsl Municipality.   the active cases were 2  three weeks ago and went up to 174 - the highest total ever - two weeks ago.    This past week the active cases decreased to 145 - but that is still very hgh for this Municipality.   

I read somewhere that the Omricon virus now accounts for 80% of the infections in SA - the other 20% came from the Delta variant.

the problem can also be linked to the rather cold temperatures we had thus far this summer.   .The average was bet ween 17 and 23 degrees Celsius.      

Maaik...it's lekke hot in Cape Town.

Sure it is comfortably hot today at 29 degrees C.   Hope it stays like that for a while/   

Figures released by the SA Weather Service reveal that ‘above average rainfall’ is set to persist for the remainder of Summer, and then into Spring. Regions such as Cape Town, the Garden Route, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga all look like they’ll be bearing the brunt of these wet and wild conditions – much to the delight of local ducks.

Doesn’t look like a million cases a day is going to happen….maybe not even 100000 a day.  Ah well, only wrong by a factor of 10. The guys who project the numbers in the UK have been awful from the start.

It was 125,000 recorded cases yesterday, 130,000 today. 
.
It is believed that the infections are 5 times higher than the reported figure. The booster is expected to make more people asymptomatic. 

Many people have modified their behavior like avoiding Christmas parties- which has helped

Boris Johnson has not increased England's lockdown measures because the data is showing a much lower percentage of hospitalizations and deaths than Delta.
Also, most of the deaths are anti-vaxxers so the number of deaths will be much higher than if everyone was vaccinated- but life has to go on with or without the vaccine class. 

Omicron will hit America harder because they have one of the largest anti-vaxxer percentage of the population, so their death rate will be higher. 

In South Africa, the reported figure is much, much less than the true number of infections. The number of deaths is also probably less than the reported figure.
Much of South Africa have been infected with Covid already so they do have some protection against Omicron. 

South Africa is past its peak of Omicron.
The UK will probably peak in around 2 weeks
The US will peak in 4-5 weeks. 

US had its record high of cases yesterday. 543,000.

Shark bokkie you post such crap...as young boys would say...a scaredy cat...get some balls man and live  more bold and daring in life and put finger to control...you are fear motivated.

The Substantial fool is an anti-vaxxer, who only remains alive by a throw of a dice.
He thinks still being alive vindicated his approach...

History will show that most Covid deaths are from the anti-vaxxer population. 
Those with enough brains were smart enough to follow the scientific approach versus religious and social media conspiracies. 

ThenWorld Barometer has the UK at 98000 cases yesterday…..but whatever the right number it’s a long way from a million. The US had only 230000 cases. Where do you get your numbers?

The sources do vary, but I usually use Google. If you hover over yesterday. 
US Chart - 543,000 cases yesterday (27th December)

Also, this article says over 500,000 cases in the US yesterday.
https://usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/28/omicron-covid-19-treatment-short-supply-texas-covid-19-updates/9030152002/

France got 180,000 cases today. 

"It is believed that the infections are 5 times higher than the reported figure"

Oh really? Fools believe whatever they're being told...however nonsensical it might be...

In South Africa, the reported number of infections is much lower than in the UK- despite more of the SA population having had Covid. 

The number of reported cases vs deaths in South Africa is completely different, making death rate look worse in SA.  However, if the reported cases are so low in SA, it would not be a surprise if the number of deaths is much more than reported as well.

South Africa is the only country that has created 2 variants. So Covid has been rife in SA.

China are apparently having a hard time with Omicron (South African Covid 2.0). 

 

Four of my customers told me that they caught Covid over the last 2 weeks, and people from my work building have also caught it. I have never seen so many people get Covid in such a small space of time.

Fortunately, this wave will be faster than the other ones. 

All BS conjecture...the South African facts don't suit your afenda, so you try and distort it...the 1st world medicine sector in South Africa is better than the average medical care in most first world countries...and we did more things right than Europe and the USA...regardless of our vax rate...we vaxed those who needed it most...it shows in the results.

The best scientists create the vaccine and treatments. (Or more specifically virologists for Covid ). 
There is no real proof that South African doctors are better than other countries, especially when most of them do not live in South Africa?

Didn't your doctor prescribe you HCQ and some other BS? 

That is beside the point because whatever point you think scientists in SA made, you probably misinterpreted the findings anyway. 

"Didn't your doctor prescribe you HCQ and some other BS? "

Nope...he also didn't want to prescribe ivermectin,  luckily I know a good vet....and luckily there are other doctors who actually see the benefits of HQC, Ivermectin, antihistamines and other medicines. 

South African doctors are used to treating patients with Aids, Malaria and TB...experience that suits them well in dealing with covid.

Deaths...

vs. cases.

Too early to call it either way, but very promising...Omicron might actually be a good thing, but it's wise to be cautious till we know for sure.

Atleast our government didn't overreact to the spike in cases this time around. 

The world is lucky that Omicron is weaker, also that many people have been vaccinated- otherwise, things would be much worse. 

If the ANC has had their hands on the Covid numbers, it is unlikely they are correct. 
Most ANC leaders will be vaccinated, so they are sorted now.  

"The world is lucky that Omicron is weaker,..."

It's the nature of viruses to get weaker...follow the science...the numbers are close to correct...our hospitals are coping and there are no corpses lying around in the streets...it's not like you can hide too much excess deaths...

Luck has got nothing to do with it..it's Nature...as observed by Science...ut is what it is, regardless of the fearmongering...

France got 210,000 "reported" cases today. Looks like they are applying urgent measures to slow the spread. 

Err, no...it helps, but less than 30% vaccination rate doesn't actually proof your case...not saying it might not be significant,  it would be interesting to compare with the UK, but ATM the less vaccinated South Africa seems to be doing better than the Poms ..

If 70% of South Africa has already had Covid, then perhaps it does have some limited form of herd immunity- that can at least fight a weaker more infectious strain with limited amounts of deaths.  

How is the highly vaccinated UK doing with the same strain?

"Aaron Rodgers, the star quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, decried the appeal to authority on the "Pat McAfee Show," those who say science shouldn't be questioned, equating that fallacy to propaganda.

"If science can't be questioned, it's not science anymore; it's propaganda," Rodgers told an excited McAffee.

"That's the truth," he added. "When did science become this blind agreement [about] not having any debate over what can actually heal people and work for people. That makes no sense to me."

Rodgers' comments come in light of his recent infection with COVID-19, during which he followed up with a series of treatments that did not include a vaccine. "I also got better in 48 hours," from the treatments he added. "And I had symptoms."

In a separate appearance on McAfee's show, Rodgers questioned why there was no public discussion on the promotion of a healthy lifestyle to combat the virus.

"Throughout this entire time, there hasn't been real conversations around health…As far as giving people, you know, things to think about when it comes to how to be healthier, right? As far as your diet, vitamins, exercise and those kinds of things," Rodgers stated.

Well, Saffa 2.0 variant has ruined Christmas in the UK, thanks for asking...

Can we expect you lot to release 3.0 just in time for next Christmas?

UK hits 180,000 recorded cases today. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-cases-latest-uk-omicron-b1984021.html

Sharktwat just a refresher to help you adjust to Arithmetic for juniors.

1    = 1 x 1

10  =  1 x 10

100 =  1 x 10 x 10

1,000 = 1 x 10 x 10 x 10

10,000 = 1 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10

100,000 = 1 x 10 x 10 x10 x 10 x 10 

1,000,000 = 1 x 10 x10 x10 x 10 x 10 x 10.

The last # is also known as one million.

Got it retard!