Russia’s oil refinery problem may be shifting from temporary disruption to a longer-term structural issue. The key number to watch is not simply how many refineries have been hit. It is actual refinery throughput.
Russia has around 6.5 million barrels per day of installed refining capacity. Recent throughput has fallen to roughly 3.8–4.0 million barrels per day, with the IEA expecting around 4.0 million barrels per day through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
That is already around 25–30% below Russia’s previous operating level. The bigger risk is what happens if Ukrainian attacks continue to increase in frequency and effectiveness.
A reasonable scenario range could look like this:
• Current intensity: ~3.8–4.2 mb/d
• Moderate escalation: ~3.5–3.9 mb/d
• Strong escalation: ~3.1–3.6 mb/d
• Severe sustained campaign: ~2.5–3.0 mb/d
These lower figures are scenarios rather than official forecasts, but the underlying problem is increasingly clear.
Russia can repair damaged refinery units, but complex equipment such as hydrocrackers, catalytic crackers and hydrotreaters can take many months to restore. Repeated strikes also mean repaired facilities can be damaged again before the wider repair backlog is cleared.
That creates a compounding effect: More damage → longer repair queues → fewer spare parts → repeated strikes → lower overall refinery reliability.
The most important impact may not be crude oil production itself. Russia can still export crude oil.
The bigger vulnerability is its ability to turn that crude into diesel, petrol, aviation fuel and other refined products.
If refinery throughput eventually falls towards 3 million barrels per day, Russia would be operating around 40–45% below its previous refining level.
At that point, the pressure increasingly shifts towards domestic fuel availability, refined-product exports and the wider logistics of keeping the economy supplied.
The important question is therefore no longer simply: “How many Russian refineries have been hit?”
It is: “Are repairs still keeping pace with new damage?”
If the answer increasingly becomes no, the economic impact of the campaign could continue to compound.
