BNP Paribas Indian Wells Major - Seeds and Draws

There are indeed 32 seeded players and Djokovic is included though it is uncertain whether he would in fact play.    The tournament qualification rounds started today and will be completed tomorrow with the tournament proper starting on Friday.   With Djokovic still not being in  Indian Wells his participation will really be impossible.

Since writing the above - the absence from Djokovic  from the tournament and  from he succeeding Miami tournament has been confirmed and although Djokovic in theory remains as a seeded player a 33rd seeding has been included.    

The 33 seeded players have been identified as follows:-

1     Danill Medvedev

2     Novak Djokovic

3     Alexander Zverev

4     Rafael Nadal

5     Stefanos Tsitsipas

6     Matteo Berrettini

7     Andrey Rublev

8     Casper Ruud

9     Felix Auger-Aliassime     

10   Jannik Sinner

11   Hubert Hurkacz

12   Cameron Norrie

13   Denis Shapovalov

14   Diego Schwartzman

15   Roberto Bautista-Agut

16   Pablo Correro-Busta

17   Reilly Opelka

18   Nikoloz Basilashvili

19   Carlos Alcaraz

20   Taylor Fritz

21   Lorenzo Sonego

22   Aslan Karatsev

23   John Isner

24   Marin Cilic

25   Karen Khachanov

26   Gael Monfils

27   Daniel Evans

28   Frances Tiafoe

29   Alec de Minaur

30   Lloyd Harris

31   Alexander Bublik

32   Federico Delbonis

33   Grigor Dimitrov

According to the list of players mentioned the total number of players involved will be 128 - with  all 32 seeded players not playing in Round 1.   So the previous report about there only being played 48 matches in Round 1 is correct.    So in Round 2 there will be comprising of  -

*     32  seeded players; and 

*     48  winners in Round 1,

making a total of 80 players in Round 2  - ie 40 matches, while in fact there will be only 32 matches actually played in Round 2 catering for 64 players.   It just does not add up,  

ROUND 2

Top Half of the Draw

1    Danill  Medvedev           vs    Tomas Machac

26  Gael Monfils                  vs     Filip Krajinovic

19  Carlos Alcaraz               vs     Mackenzie McDonald

15   Roberto Bautista-Agut  vs    Jeffrey Wolf

11   Cameron Norrie            vs     Pedro Martinez

18   Nikoloz Basilashvil      vs     Fabio Fognini

25   Karen Khachanov         vs     Jenson Brooksby

6    Stefanos Tsitsipas          vs     Jack Sock

4    Rafael Nadal                  vs     Sebastian Korda 

27  Daniel  Evans                vs      Federico Coria

17   Reilly Opelka               vs      Lorenzo Musetti

13   Denis Shapovalov        vs      Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

10   Jannik Sinner               vs       Laslo Djere

21   Lorenzo Sonego          vs       Benjamin Bonzi

31   Federico Delbonis       vs       Nic Kyrgios

8    Casper Ruud                 vs       Chrisopher Eubanks

Bottom Half of the Draw      

6    Matteo Berrettini          vs      Holger Rune

30  Lloyd Harris                 vs      Facundo Bagnis

24  Marin Cilic                   vs      Miomir Kecmanovic

9    Felix Auger-Aliassime  vs     Botic van de Zandschulp 

16   Pablo Correro-Busta    vs      Jaume Munar 

20   Taylor Fritz                  vs      Kamil Majchrzak

29    Alec de Minaur          vs       John Millman

3      Alexander Zverev      vs       Tommy Paul 

7     Andre Rublev             vs       Dominik Koepfer

28   Frances Tiafoe           vs        Brandon Nakashima

22   Aslan Karatsev          vs        Steve Johnson

11   Hubert Hurkacz         vs        Oscar Otte

14  Diego Schwartzman   vs        Emil Vuusuvuori

23  John Isner                   vs       Sam Querrey

31   Alexander Bublik      vs        Andy Murray       

33   Grigor Dimitrev        vs        Jordan Thompson

All the Top Half of the Draw Round 1 matches have been completed and there were no real surprises - but some matches were very tight,   By tomorrow this time the Bottom Half of the Draw matches will also be completed.    

I was doubtful as to the actual participation of Djokovic since the surface is slower than the normal situation with hard course matches requiring extra training on it being essential for progress in the series.      

If he has had intentions to play he would have been in Indian Wells early in the week,   I also referred to what happened in 2021 when after the Aussie Open Djokovic did not play in any matches until the Monte Carlo Open,  where he lost  in Round 2 and then went back to Belgrade to play in a minor tournament where he lost as well.   The situation seems to follow the same tendency as last year.     By the way he is going to loose ranking points allocated in 2019 - but not reduced when he did not play in 2020 up to Agust 2021.   

The bottom half draw has been amended with a new 33 Grigor Dimitrov seeded player and a lucky loser brought in to replace him in the first round match he was supposed to play.   This is more or less in line with standard procedure.   

By the way Djokovic will not turn up for the Miami Open starting next week either.    There were no pressure on Djokovic this time around - it probably was own choice bearing in mind what happened last year, when he also lacked match fitness and lost to a qualifier.  The break in match play this year  was much longer than last year.

The absence from those two tournaments will cost Djo kovic some grading points.   

ROUND 3

Top Half of the Draw

1    Danill  Medvedev           vs    26  Gael Monfils

15   Roberto Bautista-Agut  vs    19  Carlos Alcaraz 

12   Cameron Norrie            vs     18   Nikoloz Basilashvili

6    Stefanos Tsitsipas          vs     Jenson Brooksby

4    Rafael Nadal                  vs     27   Daniel Evans

10   Jannik Sinner               vs       Benjamin Bonzi      

13   Denis Shapovalov       vs      17   Reilly Opelka

8    Casper Ruud                 vs      Nic Kyrgios 

Bottom Half of the  Draw

6    Matteo Berrettini          vs      30  Lloyd Harris      

Botic van de Zandschulp    vs     Miomir Kecmanovic

20   Taylor Fritz                  vs      Jaume Munar 

29    Alec de Minaur          vs       Tommy Paul 

7     Andre Rublev             vs       28   Frances Tiafoe

11   Hubert Hurkacz         vs        Steve Johnson

14  Diego Schwartzman   vs        23  John Isner        

31   Alexander Bublik      vs        33   Grigor Dimitrev

The Round 2 matches will be played tonight and tomorrow night , with the top Half of the Draw being completed first.  After that the updating of the Round 3 match-ups will be completed.   

In the Top Half of the Draw  there were 3 seeded players beaten (Sonego, Khachanov and Delbonis) - but there were 4 seeded players who struggled and was lucky to survive  and had to play 3 sets to win - namely Shapovalov, Nadal, Tsitsipas and Bautista-Agut.  The latter 3 players won in tiebreakers in the third set.   There are only 2 of the 9 Americans who played in Round 2 left to play in Round 3.

In the Bottom Half of the Draw there were 8 of the 16 matches that went to 3 setters and even though 4 of the seeded players (Berrettini, Hurkacz,  Harris and Bublik) won those 3 set matches - it was a hard grind  for them,   4 of the 3 setters were lost by seeded players - Zverev, Auger-Aliassime (two of the media favorites to go through to the quarterfinals),  Correro-Busta and Cilic lost.   There were 1 other seeded player who lost in 2 sets.

With Zverev and Auger-Aliassime gone the Bottom half of the draw is wide open.   Of the actual top 10 players 2 are gone and that means that only 3 top ten players (Berrettini, Rublev and Hurkacz)  remain in the Bottom Half of the draw.   2 of those  3  struggled and won 3 setters - all three will have to up their games considerably to go through to Round 4.

There has been so many upset results and seeded players struggling to win in Round 2 it will be impossible to forecast any winners in Round 3,   The only player I am sure will win is Medvedev.    Watch out for Carlos Alcazar too.

I was not wrong in saying that the upsets will continue and the main ones were Medvedev  and  Tsitsipas.    Nadal had a poor game as well - but he survived because Evans is not a real class player and rarely wins when up against any Top 10 player.   In the Top Half of the Draw I still say watch out for Alcaraz. 

I am sure the Bottom Half of the Draw will also be disastrous for the  seeded players and am not making any predictions at this stage.    There are only two Top 10 seeded players left in this Half - of those Berrenttini is facing a poor - though seeded 30 player  Harris and has a chance to beat him, while Rublev is a lottery ticket despite the fact that he won the last ten matches he played in.   

In view of  the withdrawal of Djokovic the 11 seeded Hurkacz Hurkacz can also be regarded as a Top 10 seeded player and may also beat the unseeded player he is up against.   However, the outcome of none of the matches can be indicated as certain to be won by anybody,                              

ROUND 4

Top Half of the Draw

19   Carlos Alcaraz              vs       26  Gael Monfils

11   Cameron Norrie            vs      Jenson Brooksby

4    Rafael Nadal                  vs     17   Reilly Opelka 

10   Jannik Sinner                vs      Nic Kyrgios 

Bottom  Half of the Draw

6    Matteo Berrettini          vs       Miomir Kecmanovic

20   Taylor Fritz                  vs      29    Alec de Minaur        

7     Andrey Rublev           vs       11   Hubert Hurkacz

23  John Isner                   vs        33   Grigor Dimitrev

I  do believe based on the level of tennis played thus far in the tournament the following will be lucky to get to the quarterfinals:-

Norrie, Nadal and Sinner

Berrettini is lucky to have an unseeded opponent in this round otherwise he would be on the list as well.

Watch out for Carlos Alcaraz as well.  I think he will neat Monfils.   

Rublev so far has won 10  matches in a row and his record in February and March thus far is 13  matches played and 1 loss - the player he lost against in Rotterdam was Auger-Aliassime - whom he beat in the subsequent  Marseille tournament in the final.   He seems to be back in form and in Marseilles he together with Karatsev also  won the doubles title.  He and Karatsev is playing in the Indian Wells double tournament and is through to the quarterfinals already. 

Rublev chances of beating Hurkacz is just about 45/55 and I make no prediction on that one.      At the start of the tournament there were 17 USA players competing - the number is now  4 left in the Round 4 matches.      

So although I am not forecasting anything about he ,matches to be played today  based on performances thus far my personal opinion is that the following may be the quarterfinalists:-

Carlos Alcaras  vs   Jenson Brooksky

Reilly Opelka  vs    Nic Kyrgios

Mateo Berrettini  vs   Taylor Fritz

Andrey Rublev   vs    Grigor Dimitrov

Is probably wrong about 4  out of the 8 players.  LOL 

It could well be that a final between Alcaraz and Rublev being  possible.    

QUARTERFINALS

 Top Half of the Draw

12   Cameron Norrie            vs      19   Carlos Alcaraz 

4    Rafael Nadal                  vs      Nic Kyrgios 

Bottom  Half of the Draw

20   Taylor Fritz                vs        Miomir Kecmanovic 

7     Andrey Rublev           vs       33   Grigor Dimitrev

 Carlos Alcaraz, Andrey Rublev had the easiest wins over seeded players while Norrie beating the unseeded Brooksby easily won as well.   Nadal did better than expected and winning in two tiebreak sets.   Sinner was ill and could not play giving Kyrgios a walkover.  

Based on what happened today I guess that the semifinals ill be between the following players:-

Rafael Nadal/Nic Kyrgios  vs    Carlos Alcaraz

Andrey Rublev                  vs     Taylor Fritz/Miomir Kecmanovic  

 Norrie's game is all about extended rallies and that will not affect Alcaraz - whose rallying is top class.    Rublev after 11 match wins in the last three weeks is going to be too strong for  Dimitrov.  Fritz was not entirely convincing in his game against De Minaur, but after beating Berrettini Kecmanovic must be full of confidence that he could beat Fritz.   Nadal beet Opelka in two sets - both won 7-6, 7-6 - while Kyrgios had a walkover.     Not sure at all about the Nadal-Kyrgios match outcome .   I WAS CORRECT ABOUT ALCARAZ THOUGH.        

SEMIFINALS

4    Rafael Nadal                  vs       19   Carlos Alcaraz 

7    Andrey Rublev              vs       20   Taylor Fritz

So the first two quarterfinals were complete and I was correct that Alcaraz  would beat Norrie - the 2021 Indian Wells Champion - easily in the Quarterfinal.   He now faces his idol Nadal in the semi tomorrow.    Although Nadal won all his matches thus far in the tournament - he struggled in all matches leading to the semi-final.    My forecast is that unless Alcaras develops stage fright he has a very good chance of going through to the final.  Thus far in the Indian Wells and Brazil tournaments  he beat Berrettini  (in Rio),  Norrie and Bautista-Agut.   In the case of Indian Wells he also beat Monfils - who beat Medvedev easily in  their Round 3 match.   If he wins in  the final he would move up to 10 in the rankings and he is not yet 19 years of age.   With his win in the Quarterfinal he already has moved above Bautista-Agut and Correro-Busta in the rankings and is now Spain's number 2 ranked player.    

By the way according to the commentators Alcaraz was supposed to be the future star tennis player.   They now are saying we must forget the future - Alcaraz is already  a star player. 

The only aspect in Alcazar's game that needs further attention is his serving - but I am sure his coach (Juan-Carlos Ferrero) and he is working on that one.      

I still believe the final may be between Alcaraz and Rublev.  I think the Rublev camp will prefer that he plays Nadal in the final - in his last game he beat Nadal easily in Monte Carlo last year. and even though he won all the matches thus far in the series he had to struggle to win in at least 3 of the matches played thus far.  

By the way the bookmakers made Nadal the favorite to win - but his odds are going down and those of Alcazar is going down.   Nadal used to be paying 1,33 for a win - he is now paying 1,60 - while Alcazar was 2,80 and now is 2,35.   Some clever money is flooding on Alcazar bets.    

The Doubles games at Indian Wells is also interesting and the following is the situation:-

Semifinals

J Isner/J Sock       vs    S Gonzales/E  Roger-Vasselin   

The Isner -Sock team won in the final.    Congrats to them .   

FINAL

4    Rafael Nadal                  vs       20   Taylor Fritz

I was correct in my assessment when I banked Alcaraz and Ruplev to  win their quarterfinal matches - with the other two matches being toss-up matches,  

Will be updated this evening.    Would love to see a Alcaraz - Rublev final.  

 The bookmakers  latest odds are as follows:-

Nadal        =      1.62       -        Alcazar      =     2,30

Rublev      =      1,44       -        Fritz          =      2,80

If it is a Alcaraz - Rublev final both will move up significantly in the rankings.    The latter is important iro of seeding in the Miami tournament.   

Rublev sill have a nerve problem an when it comes through he looks poor n matches.   He was outplayed  and was 4-2 behind in set 1 and won the won the next three matches ending  at 5-5 - where his nerves gave in again an h e lost his serve again.  When that happen he cannot get a first service in and he made double faults as well.   In the second set he was 4-4 and had two break points - but then collapsed and lost his service again by poor services.  Rublev himself said  he gets nervous in games and he will never really make progress if he cannot overcome that.  Apparently Rublev had an injury problem as well - so maybe I am a bit harsh on him.   End of game - congratulations to Fritz.  He deserve to be in the final.   

Nadal - after beating Alcaraz 6-1 and 6-2 in Madrid last year  this time around he beat him 6-4, 4-6. 6-3 -  a very hard grind and it showed the degree to which Alcaraz has impr oved over the past year.   I do not think that Nadal would  beat him again on hard courts in future,   Anyway - congratulations to Nadal 

Congrats to Taylor Fritz after ending Nadal amazing dream start to the 2022 tournament year in winning the 2022 Indian Wells tournament.