Madrid Tennis Open

The Seedings are as follows:-

1    Novak   Djokovic

2     Alexander Zverev

3     Rafael Nadal

4     StefanosTsitsipas

  5     Casper Ruudv

6      Andrey Ruble

7      Carlos Alcaraz

8      Felix Augur-Aliassime

9      Cameron Norrie 

10     Jannik Sinner

11     Taylor Fritz

12     Hubert Hurkacz

13     Diego Schwarzman

14     Denis Shapovvalov

15     Reilly Opelka

16     Pablo Carrero-Busta

17     Roberto Bautista-Agut

Taylor Fritz are not playing and a 17th  seed was added as a result.  

The top 8 seeds has a bye going through to Round 2 - the rest of the seeds must play in Round 1 as well.

ROUND 2

Top Half of the Draw

1    Novak Djokovic                    vs               Gael Monfils

14  Dennis Shapovalov                vs              Andy Murray

12  Hubert Hurkacz/                    vs               Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

5   Casper Ruud                           vs               Dusan Lajovic

3    Rafael Nadal                         vs                Miomir Kecmanovic

Botic van de Zandschulp             vs               David Goffin

9    Cameron Norrie                    vs                 John Isner

7    Carlos Alcaraz                       vs                Nikoloz Bsilashvili

Bottom Half of the Draw

6    Andrey Rublev                      vs               James Draper

17 Roberto Bautista-Agut           vs              Daniel Evans

13   Diego Schwartzman/             vs   v         Grigor Dimitrov

4   Stefanos Tsitsipas                   vs               Lucas Pouille

8    Felix Auger-Aliassime           vs               Christian Garin

10   Jannick  Sinner                     vs                 Alex de Minaur

Sebastian Korda                          vs                 Lorenzo Musetti

2     Alexander Zverev                vs                 Marin Cilic

I am surprised Rune is not playing in Madrid. 

Rublev scraped home against a youngster from London by the name of Jack Draper - who in Round 1 beat Lorenzo Sonego - a top 30 player.  One needs to watch  out for this youngster in future.   The end result of the match was 2-6, 6-4 and 7-5   and the youngster battled up to the very end and was a serious threat all the way.   Draper must be watched in future for further development.      

Tiday was a bad day at the office - hope the situation change tomo rrow.   

ROUND 3

Top Half of the Draw

1    Novak Djokovic                    vs               Gael Monfils

14  Dennis Shapovalov                vs              Andy Murray

12  Hubert Hurkacz/                    vs               Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

5   Casper Ruud                           vs               Dusan Lajovic

3    Rafael Nadal                         vs                Miomir Kecmanovic

Botic van de Zandschulp             vs                David Goffin

9    Cameron Norrie                    vs                John Isner

7    Carlos Alcaraz                       vs                Nikoloz Basilashvili

Bottom Half of the Draw

6    Andrey Rublev                      vs         Jack Draper     

17    Roberto Bautista-Agut         vs         Daniel Evans

13   Diego Schwartzman              vs       Grigor Dimitrov

4   Stefanos Tsitsipas                   vs        Lucas Pouille

8    Felix Auger-Aliassime           vs       Christian Garin

10   Jannick  Sinner                     vs       Alex de Minaur

Sebastian Korda                          vs        Lorenzo Musetti

2     Alexander Zverev                vs         Marin Cilic

I am surprised Rune is not playing in Madrid. 

ROUND 3

Top Half of the Draw

1    Novak Djokovic                    vs                Andy Murray

12  Hubert Hurkacz                   vs                  Dusan Lanjovic

3    Rafael Nadal                         vs                David Goffin

7    Carlos Alcaraz                       vs               9    Cameron Norrie 

Bottom Half of the Draw

6    Andrey Rublev                      vs                Daniel Evans

4   Stefanos Tsitsipas                   vs                Grigor Dimitrov 

8    Felix Auger-Aliassime           vs                10   Jannick  Sinner

2     Alexander Zverev                vs                 Lorenzo Musetti

There  are  still 10 of the 17 seeded players left in Round 3.   Of those in two of the match-ups  there are seeded players playing each other., so I think that the number of seeded players in the Quarterfinal will  be  reduced to   8 players.    The  quarterfinals will all be seeded players.   Present form indicates that the Quarterfinals will be as follows:-

1      Novak Djokovic                vs                  12      Hubert Hurkacz

3      Rafael Nadal                     vs                   7       Carlos Alcaraz 

4       Stefanos  Tsitsipas            vs                  6        Andrey Rublev

2      Alexander Zverev             vs                   8        Felix Auger Alliassime/10   Jann ik Sinner 

QUARTERFINALS

Top Half of the Draw

1    Novak Djokovic                    vs                12    Hubert Hurkacz

3    Rafael Nadal                         vs                  7    Carlos Alcaraz 

Bottom Half of the Draw

4    Stefanos Tsitsipas                   vs                 6    Andrey Rublev

2     Alexander Zverev                 vs                  8    Felix Auger-Aliassime         

Djokovic will have to play Hurkacz in the quarterfinals - it could be a tricky game - especially following his performances in Belgrade two weeks ago against Rublev.   Since then he played one match against Monfils - who is not  in great form - and beat him, but instead of getting more match-playing -time  he got a walkover against Andy Murray. 

Nadal is NOT match-fit  -he struggled badly to beat Goffin.    Alcaraz will make mincemeat of him tomorrow.     

Alcaraz struggled against Norrie amd ,ade far too many unforced errors - but he still beat Norrie - a far better player than Goffin - who had a number f match points against  Nadal.      In the end Alcaraz is the bookies favorite to beat Nadal.    

If Djokovic survives against Hurkacz - the   semi may be between Djokovic and Alcara.   I believe he other semi is wide open  and some surprises may be in the offing.                  

Andy Murry did not turn up to play Djokovic - so he got a walkover to the quarterfinals  where he would meet either Hurkacz or Lajovic.     Rublev did not turn up to play - but still with double faults and unforced errors galore he managed to beat  Evans.   He hated having match points and squandered a lot of those - yet he managed to win the match.   H can play ten times better tennis - but loves to play badly and is a bad one to watch playing.         

SEMIFINALS

1    Novak Djokovic                    vs                 7         Carlos Alcaraz    

2    Alexander Zverev                 vs                 4         Stefanos Tsitsipas   

It is very difficult in this case to determine the outcome of the Quarterfinals.   So lets look at the upcoming four matches:-

Djokovic  vs  Hurkacz

There is still a question about match-fitness on the part of Djokovic.     After an absence of near to  4 months from tennis Djokovic tried on three occasions  to make a comeback to tennis on three occasions  and in all three cases was beaten badly  by -

*      a qualifier in the hard court Dubai tournament  in the quarterfinal of that series;

*      Davidovich Fokina in Monte Carlo round 2; and 

*       Rublev in the final in Belgrade - in fact he was disgraced by Rublev losing 6-2, 6-7 and  6-0 in the final.

The above indicated the absence of match-fitness by Djokovic.   Unfiotutely he only had one game in Madrid  thus far - namely against Monfils - and even  though he won convincingly in that game it must be borne in mind that Monfils is not a top 20 player anymore, while Hurkacz at 14 is.    Hurkacz's record this year was no convincing and compare to 2021 he dropped in the rating.  He surprisingly had a narrow  surprise victory against Davidovich Fokina who  would have had a good chance to beat Djokovic.   

In the end I believe that Djokovic will have a chance to beat Hurkacz - but with his record this year   he is no certainty.   So no prediction is the really possible.

Nadal  vs  Alcaraz

Nadal  started  2022  very well - winning 3 tournaments being off the field for more than a month  due to injury.        After his return from injury beat the dangerous Kecmanovic 6-1 and 7-6   and the secod set result bothers me/    Against Goffin - a player not in the top 40 grading anymore  he won against Goffin - not a top 30 player anymore.   Fact in that match-up Goffin has had a number of match points in the third set he could not convert.

So far Nadal beat Alcaraz  twice - once in  Madrid in 2021 on the day Alcaraz was 18 years old in May 2021 and once this year in Indian Wells - that went to a three-setter.    However since Madrid last year Alcaraz has risen to the number 9 ranking in the world by winning in three tournaments this year alone - two of those being played on clay.

Even though Alcaras struggled against  Norrie - he still beat him - and considering that Norrie is a much better player than Goffin - the bookmakers believe that  Alcaraz is the favorite to beat Nadal and based on what happened yesterday I think that Alcaraz is near to a certainty to win today.

Tsitsipas  vs  Rublev   

Another match rather difficult to predict.    Tsitsipas is the favorite to beat Rublev - but will he really win.    The two players played each pother 9 times since 2019 and surprisingly Rublev won 5 of the matches they played each other.    On clay over the lst 18 months Tsitsipas beat Rublev 2-1.

Rublev is a problem player and it depends on which Rublev turns up to play.   His form last year was atrocious and this year much better.  If he plays again like he did against Djokovic in Belgrade Rublev can beat Tsitsipas.    However, Tsitsipas is better playing on clay and is the bookmakers favorite to win - but a firm prediction of the outcome of this match is really problematic.

Zverev vs  Auger Aliassime.   

Zverev is the defending champion in Madrid - he went up drastically in the ratings last year - but thus far this year showed zilch of the form he did last year.    The only time he played Auger-Aliassime this year he lost against him .     

Zverev has win no tournaments this year thus far and his form was at best not that good.            .   

It is very difficult in this case to determine the outcome of the Quarterfinals.   So lets look at the upcoming four matches:-

Djokovic  vs  Hurkacz

There is still a question about match-fitness on the part of Djokovic.     After an absence of near to  4 months from tennis Djokovic tried on three occasions  to make a comeback to tennis on three occasions  and in all three cases was beaten badly  by -

*      a qualifier in the hard court Dubai tournament  in the quarterfinal of that series;

*      Davidovich Fokina in Monte Carlo round 2; and 

*       Rublev in the final in Belgrade - in fact he was disgraced by Rublev losing 6-2, 6-7 and  6-0 in the final.

The above indicated the absence of match-fitness by Djokovic.   Unfiotutely he only had one game in Madrid  thus far - namely against Monfils - and even  though he won convincingly in that game it must be borne in mind that Monfils is not a top 20 player anymore, while Hurkacz at 14 is.    Hurkacz's record this year was not convincing and compare to 2021 he dropped in the rating.  He surprisingly had a narrow  victory against Davidovich Fokina who  would have had a good chance to beat Djokovic.   

In the end I believe that Djokovic will have a chance to beat Hurkacz - but with his record this year   he is no certainty.   So no prediction is the really possible.

Nadal  vs  Alcaraz

Nadal  started  2022  very well - winning 3 tournaments being off the field for more than a month  due to injury.        After his return from injury beat the dangerous Kecmanovic 6-1 and 7-6   and the second set result bothers me/    Against Goffin - a player not in the top 40 grading anymore  he won against Goffin.   Fact in that match-up Goffin has had a number of match points in the third set he could not convert.

So far Nadal beat Alcaraz  twice - once in  Madrid in 2021 on the day Alcaraz was 18 years old in May 2021 and once this year in Indian Wells - that went to a three-setter.    However since Madrid last year Alcaraz has risen to the number 9 ranking in the world by winning in three tournaments this year alone - two of those being played on clay.

Even though Alcaras struggled against  Norrie - he still beat him - and considering that Norrie is a much better player than Goffin - the bookmakers believe that  Alcaraz is the favorite to beat Nadal and based on what happened yesterday I think that Alcaraz is near to a certainty to win today.

Tsitsipas  vs  Rublev   

Another match rather difficult to predict.    Tsitsipas is the favorite to beat Rublev - but will he really win?    The two players played each pother 9 times since 2019 and surprisingly Rublev won 5 of the matches they played each other.    On clay over the last 18 months Tsitsipas beat Rublev 2-1.

Rublev is a problem player and it depends on which Rublev turns up to play.   His form last year was atrocious and this year is much better.  If he plays again like he did against Djokovic in Belgrade Rublev can beat Tsitsipas.    However, Tsitsipas is better playing on clay and is the bookmakers favorite to win - but a firm prediction of the outcome of this match is really problematic.

Zverev vs  Auger Aliassime.   

Zverev is the defending champion in Madrid - he went up drastically in the ratings last year - but thus far this year showed zilch of the form he did last year.    The only time he played Auger-Aliassime this year he lost against him .     

Zverev has won no tournaments this year thus far and his form was at best not that good, shile Auger-Aliassime  beat Rublev i8n the Amsterdam Final in Mzrch after Rublev self-destructed.

Not sure o0f any6 prediction in this case.  .       .            .   

FINA2  

2        Alexandwe Zverev          vs        7       Carlos Alcaraz    

This must be the most one-sided tennis final ever - or if not ti will be close to it.     Alcaras  is already displaying attributes and tennis intelligence and becoming a SUPERSTAR at the age of 19. 

Any player -irrespective of  ranking will know that to win any tournament in which Alcaraz is playing they would have to put up a super-human performance    That include players  like Djokovic and Nadal.     

You see in him the player that would be ranked number 1 in the world before his 20th birthday.       

So a week or two ago you were telling us that Djokovic and Nadal were not match ready. But because Alcaraz beat them last weekend in a 3 set format he will be ranked number 1 before he’s 20?

Quite a leap.Here’s the truth Djokovic for the first two sets was in control of the longer points. He had a break point at 4 all, which he was in control of…but blew by playing back to the kid, vs taking the open court. In the 3rd set he was clearly gassed.

And Nadal was way not match fit, but still dominated for one set.

That said Alcaraz is a Joker clone, with a more instinctive net game. His drop shots are brilliant and he is undoubtedly the best among the younger set. He has also shown just how limited your prior favorites like Rublev, Tsitsipas, Zverev etc really are.

Alcaraz reminds me most of the young female prodigies like Tracy Austin, Monica Seles and Andre Jaeger, who learned the game  at my tennis club near Chicago. Opponents figured them out. Alcaraz is the new broom and his opponents haven’t worked him  out yet. 

You can’t play him from side to side, you have to take the net.  Joker failed to do that when had Alcaraz in trouble. And how many times did he fail to pick up the drop shot. Time and hard courts will blunt that weapon.

As the scar tissue of various losses develop, the fearless shot making will also be harder to sustain. What  we saw over the weekend was very impressive, but  his career won’t be measured by ridiculously successful tournaments at 19…..it will be measured by the durability of his game and the ability to come back from the inevitable losses.

And it will be measured by the ability to deal with waves of highly talented newcomers who will be gunning for him. Joker, Fed and Nadal have repelled  at least 6 waves already, and it would be a brave man who would predict they won’t also hold Alcaraz at bay, at least for a while.

Mozart

Alcaraz is very young and very inexperienced and he will further develop his game as well.   So he will only improve further.    

He ahs one advantage over the other youngsters and that is his coach - Juan-Carlos  Ferrero.   The latter beat Federer when winning at Roland Garros.   Ferrero is a very good coach and he would know what is required at major tournaments.   Carrero-Busta  said that Alcaraz is under a very srtrict regime -= with his parents [resent at every game he played and Ferrero sent him to sleep  every night early.     He seems to have a coaching team he works with very well.   That all counts in his favor.

Thus far  Alcaraz proved that he is equally adept on clay and hard courts and since January 2022 he now holds the record of winning 4 titles  which includes 2 of the 3 ATP Masters titles played or this year.

I think that both Nadal and Djokovic benefitted from mistakes - a huge number of unforced errors  Alcaraz made in the two games he played in against them this week - yet in the end he beat both of them.     The next series is in Rome where Alcaraz will meet either Djokocvic or Nadal in the final.   The latter two will be in the upper half of the draw while  Alcaraz  is in the bottom half of the draw where his contests will be limited to three players --  Zverev and Tsitsipas (whom he has beaten repeatedly convincingly in the past - Tsitsipas repeatedly) and Rublev - who has been repeatedly  his training partner in the past - but against whom he never played in any tournament.    

So lets assume that he comes up against either Djokovic and Nadal in the final.   If that happens he will beat them with ease cutting  down  the unforced errors the way he did against Zverev yesterday,    In that case I would lay a R500 bet on him beating either of the 2.

The real test would be Roland  Garros  in two weeks time.   I give him a  60:40 chance of winning that title as well.    He has already achieved more than either Nadal, Federer and Djokovic did at he age of 19  and he is bound to continue in his merry way.    Federer is not a factor anymore - Nadal and Djokovic  may win occasional games against him - but he will beat them more than he lose against them. 

My prediction remains - he will be the number 1 player in the world by the time he is 20 years old.     The guy is a tennis genius and he gets the right coaching to enhance his game .further.    He is way ahead of the other youngsters like Rune, Korda,  Baez and others who are older than him anyway.                    

The assumption that he is going to improve with time makes sense. But improve what? His ground shots are completely developed and his service,  particularly on clay is very effective. He has been totally confident and fearless in his shot making. His sense of tactics very mature.

So what gets better? It almost feels like he is in mid career already.

Federer could always tinker with his backhand. Nadal improved his serve and his feel at the net. The Joker improved his fitness.

There isn’t an obvious thing for Alcaraz to improve. It’s quite possible we are watching peak Alcaraz. Look at McIlroy in a sport that rewards experience even more….he won the US Open when he was 22 and won no majors in the 8 years since he turned 25.

In the matches mentioned - ie the Nadal and Djokovic ones - both Nadal and benefitted in a major way from unforced Alcaraz unforced errors and not so much from their own competitiveness.   That being the case Alcaraz will improve in accuracy and that will be more than enough to show how good he really is.    

He beat both Nadal and Djokovic despite a painful ankle problem for which he received treatment  in the Nadal game.   He has now withdrawn from the Rome tournament to rest his ankle to ensure it will not hamper his Roland Garros  games.

Now about the so-called  lack of ability to improve and burn-out story by the age of 22.   Alcaraz was as young as Nadal was when he hit the tennis world - much younger than Federer and Djokovic though - and  there never was a case that Nadal did  suffer from the same situation as you now allege  Alcaraz would.   

But then Zverev said that Alcaraz is at present the best player in the world and  both Nadal an Djokovic spoke of him in similar terms - yet you always seems to know better than those three players.   Amazing!!!!!!!!!!!  

As to match readiness the fact is that you forgot I wrote  the issue about match readiness after Rublev wiped the floor with Djokovic in the Belgrade tournament and also the experience with Nadal after a month absence and equated it  to  the way Rublev beat him in Monte Carlo in 2021.  He was absent for about a month after his loss at Indian Wells with a stress facture injury.

Anyway - my money is on Alcaraz to win the Roland Garros title this year.   

Duplication