Mozart
I agree with you that in tennis the situation is unpredictable and that is why so many top ten players collapsed due to psychological reasons. You refer to Rublev who for a year could hardly win anyhing due to depression - but there are others as well, Medvedev for a short while was no 1 player in h world and is now no 18 in the worlfd - Tsitsipas was for a short time the no 3 player in the world and is now no 27 in the world - Shapovalov was for a while no 7 in the world and is now no 26. Another top 10 playe was Norrie who are now outside of the top 32 ranked players/
Compare to the players listed by me at least Auger-Aliassime and Rublev are fighting back and moving up in the rankings getting better and they would end up in the number 10 rankings the other players are psychological wrecks with no sign of real recovery. Rublev has a problem though - he dares not go back to Russia while the war is ongoing since he donated huge amounts of money to welfare organizations helping kids in Ukraine and openly oppose the War and would end up in jail. As an extemely religious person he is against wars - his tennis was suffering and it took the form of depression particularly since the start of the War in Ukraine and the medical specialists describe depression pills to take daily as a result - but the other mentioned players do not have that problem and those relate to stress factors inherent in the sport of tennis and not outside issues applicable to Rublev.
The players l mentioned are all in their twenties and should be in fine form - but they are not.
As to Sinner he started playing professional tennis at the age of 18 - while Alcarz turned professional at the age of 17. Sinner is now 24 tyears old and gis progress in performances were slower than it was the case with Alcaraz - who is now 22 years of age,
In general the situation was that since 2003 here were three top class players in Djokovic, Nadal and Federer all ruling the tennis world for more than 15 years - a unique situation never found befoe in the tennis pofessional era - and that era started ending in 2021 with both Federer and Nadal out of playing professional playes and Djokovic on the way out as well.
So at present the top 2 are Alcaraz and Sinner - but despite winning in Melbourne and London in the majors ere not really goofd nough against unseeded players in the USA open and lost hsi number 1 ranking as a result, I am not sure about Sinner's future as well. His performnces this yea was impacted pon was aa ban as a result of a perfirmance enhancing drug he was tested for. He recived four months ban - not affecting the Majors - but he seems to be not doing s well as he did last year and I agree with you his serving against Alcaraz was poor - but so was his pefomances against the unranked players he played against before he met Auger-Aliassime in the semi's which turnmed out to be difficult for him as well. On the whole a top class player - but already showing signs of stress issues as well.
The fact is there are younger players showing signs of improvement like the 20 year old Mensik. the 18 year old Moller amd Fonseca and the 17 year old Engel - but whether they will reach the top ten rankings are not clear t present, In tennis there is a real similarity with the saying - in the land of the blind cockeye is king. So what will happen over the next five years is really unpredictable. The only predctable case is in fact Alcaraz that will rule the tennis world over the said period.
In the next month the tennis dseries move to China, Japan and Khayakstan with 6 tournaments be lined up and those include 3 ATP 250 tournaments - 2 ATP 500 tournaments and 1 ATP 1000 torunament. The frst two tirnaments start on 17 September - but nobody knows yet who will turn up tp play other than the nomination lists of the tournaments and for he two Chibnes T250 tournments the nominees are as follows:-
Chengdu = Draper, Musetti, Griekspoor
Hangzhou = Khachanov, Rublev and Medvedev
However - actual nominatons are often not playing on ATP 250 level - so whether the 6 top 32 players turn up to play is really unpredictable and we should know by next Monday as to who would in fact turn up to play and in the past seeded playes were not always turning up after the draw and that cause havoc in respect of the seedings
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