Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

The next tennis tournament on the schedule is the Monte Carlo Master to be starting on 9 April 2022 - following basic information is available:-

*   Nadal has a rib stress factor and will not be involved in the tournament at all.   He lost in the quarter-final last year and will lose about 350 ranking points as a result.   He will also be absent from the Barcelona Open the week after that and the following Italian Open meaning that he will lose near to 2000 ranking points in the process.

*   Djokovic will play - but like happened in Dubai he is unlikely to be matchfit - last year he lost in Round 2 after a month absence  - early loss in the series is likely to happen again.   

*    Not sure whether Berrettini will play - we will have to wait until Friday the 8th of April to see what happens.    

The seedings are likely to be announced on Friday next w eek  and I will post same and the Round 2 match-up  as soon as available..     

The latest casualty is Medvedev - he has been playing recently with a hernia problem and is now going to be operated on meaning he will also be out of tennis for approximately six weeks.   That will cost him ranking points he earned in 2021 - but not on the level  Nadal would lose points.   

The following can give an indication of what the seedings in the Monte Carlo Masters would be like:-

TOP 20 IN THE LATEST ATP TOUR RANKINGS:

1. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8 420

2. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 8 410

3. Alexander Zverev (GER) 7 195

4. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 7 115

5. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 5 980

6. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 4 945

7. Casper Ruud (NOR) 4 380

8. Andrey Rublev (RUS) 4 375

9. Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) 3 625

10. Cameron Norrie (GBR) 3 440

11. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) 3 411

12. Jannik Sinner (ITA) 3 054

13. Taylor Fritz (USA) 2 920

14. Hubert Hurkacz (POL) 2 873

15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2 693

16. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2 580

17. Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) 2 255

18. Reilly Opelka (USA) 2 225

19. Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) 2 060

20. Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) 1 881

Of the above Medvedev had to undergo a hernia operation - he did not participate in the 2021 series because he was infected by Covid and missed  the Barcelona  and Italian tournaments as well - while Nadal is out with an injury and will possibly return for the Madrid tournament.  So he is likely to lose circa 1 500 to 2 000 ranking points as well.   So the seedings will eliminate those two and possibly also Berrettini and  Jannik Sinner, who withdrew  from the  Miami tournament due to an injury.

That would influence in particular the seeding of Rublev and  Alcaraz.   The former will probably be seeded at  6 - while Alcaraz may be seeded 9 or 8 depending on whether Sinner participates or not.   With both  Berretini  and Sinner out  Rublev could be seeded 5 and Alcaraz 7th. 

The seedings below 12 can be a problem as well - but nobody has a chance to go higher than Alcaraz.      Djokovic has a chance to improve his performance record in Monte Carlo - but that is unlikely bearing in mind his performances in the tournament last year,    His only tournament since November 2021 was in Dubai - where he lost in the quarterfinals against a   qualifier.  In the 2021 series he lost in Round 2 against  Dan Evans and then went to Belgrade to play and lost against Karatsev.    After the  Dubai debacle he  claimed he was not matchfit - will he be matchfit  in the 2022 Monte Carlo tournament?

With Nadal and  Medvedev gone and Djokovic unlikely to feature in the play-offs  - the tournament winner is likely to come from Zverev, Tsitsipas (the 2021 winner),  Rublev (the 2021 runner-up), Ruud and Alcaraz.     Zverev's and Tsitsipas's form were thus far substandard this year - and though clay is Ruud's favorite surface - he will find it difficult to beat eith er Rublev and Alcaraz.    I think the likely winner will be Alcaraz taking him to  about number 5 or 6 in the world rankings  and very near to  top of the Race to Turin end of the year tournament - he is already ranked 2 in that race               

A further withdrawal has been announced - Matteo Berrettni is out and may not play soon - even doubtful for the French Open.   

The seedings for the Monte Carlo Masters are as follows:-

1     Novak Djokovic

2      Alexander Zverev

3      Stefano Tsitsipas

4      Casper Ruud

5      Andrey Rublev

6      Felix Augur-Aliassime

7      Cameron Norrie

8      Carlos Alcaraz

9       Jannik Sinner

10     Taylor Fritz

11      Hubert Hurkacz

12      Diego Schwartzman

13      Pablo Carrero-Busta

14      Robert-Bautista-Agut

15      Nikoloz Basilashvili

16      Lorenzo Sonego

The winner is likely to come from the following:-

Zverev,  Rublev or Alcaraz - with Alcaraz being the favorite to win.

Four Round 1 matches were played yesterday - and Dimitrov beat the seeded Basilashvili in one of those.    Officially the Round 1 election will start today and will continue tomorrow where a Round 2 match between Djokovic and  Davidovich Fokina  will also be played tomorrow.  

Djokovic second round opponent will be Davidovich Fokino - a dangerous youngster which gave him serious problems last year in the Italian Open.   He only won because the youngster was injured during the match.   He  would have preferred Giron.  However, the  bookmakers made Djokovic  the favored candidate by a massive margin initially and I put R30 on the youngster winning at 6,60 to 1.08  odds.   It slipped a bot since yesterday with the odds being 5,83  to 1,12 today and may slip further - hence my early bet on Davidovich Fokina.    Just a fun bet though.   Waiting for odds on Alcaraz and Rublev to make real bets.   

There are 5 seeded players playing their Round 1 matches today - I would say 4 of those are favorites to go through to Round 2 and only one is in danger of losing.   However, on clay there may be surprising outcomes and I really only think two of those are bound to win - namely Sinner and  Hurkacz - the latter playing a lucky loser qualifier (Cressy)  who came in to replace Monfils.          

ROUND  3

So Djokovic was NOT  matchfit and warned that even though he beat Davidovich Fokina  in their previous two outings he struggled to win and the one on clay he won only because of an injury.   I put my money where my mouth is and my R30 bet paid R174.   Nice  odds.     To lose the deciding third set  6-1 indicates lack of fitness anyway.     

So Carlos Alcaras is not unbeatable and Korda beat him easily in the end.   Alcaras had in the first set 15 break points and was serving for the set - when he made two double faults and at one stage he h ad 15 break points of which he could only convert 7.    He had an ultra-poor game and Ferrero will give him a serious talk about his attitude during the game and his poor execution of shots.  A lot of learning to do in his case.   Mind you - I have watched him play many matches and this was his worst performance ever.    Maybe a loss is what he needs - he puts him to much under pressure due to his reputation.          

QUARTEFINALS

SEMIFINALS

FINAL

Alejandro Davidovich  Fokina