The ATP 1000 Indian Wells Masters Tourament

We are now through basically 2 months ATP tennis having been played and with the Australian Open and 4 ATP 500 tournaments - as well as 12 ATP 250 tournaments having been played.    The next big fish tournaments to be played over the next three weeks are the ATP 1000 Indian Wells and Miami Masters Tournaments.   Those 2 tournaments will have a serious impact on the ranking of the players in months to come.   Djokovic is not affected by those two tournaments as he did not play in the two last year and will not play in this year either - but for the rest of the present Top 10 players it could be very difficult to maintain their positions.

Those on the Potential going up in the rankings from where they are now are the poor performers last year in the two tournaments are Medvedev, Rublev and Ruud - with Tsitsipas being not affected.   

Potentially the losses of ranking points by the following players are either already available or possible:-

*    Nadal was runner-up last year in Indian Wells  and will not play this year and he is bound to lose 600 ranking points.   That will take him out of the Top 10 rankings for the first time since 2005 and he is likely to eb ranked somewhere between the number 12 and 15 rankings after this week.

*    The next 2 players whose rankings could be affected are Alcaraz - a semi-finalist last year in Indian Wells and winner of the Miami Masters and Taylor Fritz the winner of the Indian Wells tournament in 2022 .    In the case of both players the potential for going down in the rankings is quite possible.

There are no other ATP tournaments being played  in the coming three weeks and as the Indian Wells tournament is starting in 3 weeks time the performances thus far this year indicates that Medvedev may be the favorite to win in those two tournaments.

I will post the draw in the series asap since the Indian Wells tournament starts on Thursday.    Unlike in the tournaments thus far I may provide the match-ups from Round 1 and not Round 2 like I normally do.     Qualification matches start tomorrow and since both male and female tennis is involved - the female official matches will start on Wednesday and the male matches on Thursday.

I wll give the draw as soon as it is available - for the men by not later than Tuesday .                      

The potential seeded players are as follows:-

1     Carlos Alcaraz                                     Ranked   2      -   Points 6510 

2      Stefanos Tsitsipas                               Ranked   3      -    Points 5805   

3     Casper Ruud                                       Ranked  4      -     Points  5560    

4     Taylor Fritz                                         Ranked 10     -     Points  2975 

5     Danill Medvedev                               Ranked  5       -     Points  4330

6     Andrey Rublev                                  Ranked  7       -     Points  3390

7     Holger Rune                                       Ranked 8       -     Points  3325

8     Felix Auger-Aliassime                      Ranked  6      -       Points 3415

9     Hubert Hurkacz                                 Ranked 9      -        Points  3065

10    Cameron Norrie                               Ranked 12    -        Points  2 815

11     Jannik Sinner                                  Ranked 13     -        Points  2925  

12     Alexander Zverev                            Ranked 14             Points  2580

13     Karen Khachanov                            Ranked 15             Points  2505

14     Frances Tiafoe                                 Ranked 16              Points  2710

15     Pablo Carreno-Busta                       Ranked 17              Points  2200

16     Alex de Minaur                               Ranked  18             Points  2085

17     Tommy Paul

18      Borna Coric

19      Lorenzo Musetti

20      Matteo Berrettini

21       Grigor  Dimitrov

22       Roberto Bautista-Agut

23       Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

24       Daniel Evans

25       Dennis Shapovalov

26       Miomir Kecmanovic

27       Francisco Cerundolo

28       Botic van de Zandschulp

29       Yoshihito Nishioka

30      Sebastian Baez

31      Tallon Griekspoor

32      Maxime Cressy

When the final seeds are available there will be interim ratings given based on performances last year for the Top 10 players and those will be indicated and updated on a daily basis during the tournament.   Please note that when a seeded player is beaten their final ranking will be those indicated in the updated schedule.    Before the semi-finals the toral ranking points points will be updated for all the 32 seeded players.    So the members will have the ranking of players before it is in the media on 20 March 2023. 

Rafael Nadal will definitely be out of the Top 10 players at 11 - but that can change drastically depending on the performances in this tournament of the players ranked below him at present. He is likely to go down further in the rankings.       

That could impact drastically on the seedings in Miami as well.

The news is that there are 16 qualification matches starting tonight SA times - with the final qualification rounds being completed by Wednesday.   All that is known at present is that there will be at least 8 qualifiers that would play in the main tournament.   The main draw is not available as yet so it will not be possible to indicate the final seeds and the Round 1 matches.    The latter information will likely be available tomorrow.    

I do not understand how there could be 48 match-ups in Round 1 with 32 match-ups in Round 2.   That could only happen if the 16 seeded players do not play Round 1 matches and there are 3 rounds played before the quarterfinals.   We will have clarity on all issues when the main draw is announced.     

The only clear thing already known is that Nadal will be out of the top 10 rankings due to the 600 ranking points he will lose because of his absence from the Indian Wells tournament.   It would be the first time since 2005 that Nadal was not ranked in the top 10 rankings.   Where Nadal fits in in the rankings will be determined by the performances of other players in the tournament and could be between 12th and 15th in the rankings.   He will only be on 2515 ranking points of which 2000 points came from him winning at Rolland Garros last year.   If he loses that series this year he would be near to being out of the top 40 ranked players in the world.     I really am sorry about the Nadal situation - a loss at Rolland Garros will likely result in him following the Federer exist from the game of tennis.   It would be a great loss to world tennis - but may be inevitable bearing in mind his poor performances since May last year due to persistent injury problems.   

The windy conditions last year had a massive impact on match results in games - hope it is better conditions they will play under this year.   

INDIAN WELLS

ROUND 2

Top Half of the Draw

1     Carlos Alcaraz                           vs         Thanasi Kokkinakis

31    Tallon Griekspoor                    vs          Guido Pella

24    Daniel Evans                            vs          Jack Draper

 Andy Murray                                  vs           Radu Albot

9      Hubert Hurkacz                        vs         Alexei Popyrin

17    Tommy Paul                             vs         Jan-Lennard Struff

27    Francisco Cerundolo                vs         Jack Sock

8     Felix Auger-Aliassime              vs         Pedro Martinez

4     Taylor Fritz                                vs        Ben Shelton

30    Sebastian Baez                         vs         Rinki Hijikata

18    Borna Coric                              vs         Alex Molcan

16    Alex de Minaur                         vs         Marcos Fucsovics 

11    Jannik Sinner                            vs          Richard Gasquet

19    Lorenzo  Musetti                      vs          Adrian Mannarino

26    Miomir Kecmanovic                 vs         Stan Wawrinka

7      Holger Rune                             vs         Mackenzie McDonald

Bottom Half of the Draw

5    Danill Medvedev                        vs          Brandon Nakashima

28   Botic van de Zandschulp           vs          Ilya Ivashka

22   Robert Bautista-Agut                 vs         Emil Ruusuvuori

12   Alexander Zverev                       vs          Pedro Cachin

13   Karen Khachanov                       vs         Oscar Otte

23   Alejandro Davidovich Fokina    vs          Yibing Wu

29    Yoshihito Nishioaka                  vs          Christian Garin

3     Casper Ruud                               vs          Diego Schwartzman

6     Andre Rublev                             vs          Jirri Lehcka

25   Denis Shapovalov                      vs         Ugo Humbert

20    Matteo Berrettini                       vs         Taro Daniel

10    Cemeron Norrie                        vs         Tung-llin Wu 

14   Frances Tiafoe                           vs         Marcos Giron

21   Grigor Dimitrov                        vs         Jason Kubler

32   Maxime Cressy                         vs          Alejandro Tabilo

2     Stephanos Tsitsipas                   vs         Jordan Thompson

The Round 1 matches should be completed on 10 March 2010 and the Round 2 mattches will start on that date.

There is nothing much of interest in the Round 1 matches to be played over the next few dates as matches are between unseeded players of which 13 were qualifiers.   The only real player of interest is Jirri Helecka (one of the younger players coming through) who beat Rublev in the last match between the 2 of them.   They are up against each other in Round 2 of this tournament.     /  

Round 2 is going to be a tough one for some players.    It would be the first matches of seeded players against unseeded players.   One of the most diffult matches for seeded players will be the Rublev -  Lehecka match.       

ROUND 3

Top Half of the Draw

1     Carlos Alcaraz                                          vs      31    Tallon Griekspoor

Jack Draper                                                     vs      Andy Murray 

9      Hubert Hurkacz                                      vs       17    Tommy Paul

8     Felix Auger-Aliassime                             vs        27    Francisco Cerundolo 

4     Taylor Fritz                                              vs        30    Sebastian Baez

Marcos Fucsovics                                           vs         Alex Molcan

11    Jannik Sinner                                          vs         Adrian Mannarino

7      Holger Rune                                           vs         Stan Wawrinka

Please note that the 15-seeded Carreno-Busta has been withdrawn - meaning that in the Round 2 match concerned Murray will now have to play Talbot.      For the rest the carnage amongst seeded players were not as bad as was the case iro the Bottom Half of the Draw.  However in the next Round 4 of the seeded players will go out  Round 4 since they are playing other seeded players.   

Bottom Half of the Draw

5    Danill Medvedev                                       vs      Ilya Ivashka

12   Alexander Zverev                                     vs      Emil Ruusuvuori   

13   Karen Khachanov                                     vs      23   Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

3     Casper Ruud                                             vs       Christian Garin

6     Andrey Rublev                                         vs       Ugo Humbert

10    Cameron Norrie                                      vs        Taro Daniel

14   Frances Tiafoe                                          vs        Jason Kubler

 Alejandro Tabilo                                            vs        Jordan Thompson

You could call yesterday the slaughter of the seeds day.   Of the 16 seeded players in the bottom half of the draw 8 was eliminated - the biggest name gone is Tsitsipas who was seeded no 2.   In Round 4 there will be only 1 seeded player paying another seeded player - so only 1 seeded player will evidently go out.  

ROUND 4

Top Half of the Draw

1     Carlos Alcaraz                                vs       Jack Draper 

8     Felix Auger-Aliassime                   vs      17    Tommy Paul

4     Taylor Fritz                                     vs     Marcos Fucsovics

11    Jannik Sinner                                 vs        Stan Wawrinka 

Bottom Half of the Draw

5    Danill Medvedev                             vs     12   Alexander Zverev   

23   Alejandro Davidovich Fokina        vs     Christian Garin

6     Andrey Rublev                                vs     10    Cameron Norrie

14   Frances Tiafoe                                vs      Alejandro Tabilo

The surprise loss in Round 3 was Ruud losing against Garin one of the weakest players remaining in the tournament.     Ruud was poor in the Aussie Open and was not in form.   He then took February off and came back in the Mexican Open tournament where he lost in Round 2.   Now he got one round further - but lost against a very weak opponent.   After the Miami Open starting next week - the  European clay court season start in the following week - it has always been claimed that Ruud is a clay court specialist and his performance in hard court tournaments this year seems to confirm it.

I watched the games last night.    I am not surprised about Medvedev struggling to win in his match against Ivashka - this is the fourth tournament he played in in consecutive weeks and it seems he was a bit off color in the match - especially in the second set.    His opponent in Round 4 will be Zverev - who also in Round 3 struggled to win against a stronger opponent (Vuusuvuori).    No bet on the outcome of that match though,  

There are still 6 seeded players left in this half of the tournament, but that could be reduced to four in the quarterfinals - since two of the seeded players are playing seeded players - namely Medvedev vs Zverev and Rublev vs Norrie - no bets on the outcome of the latter match too, but I may change my mind on that one - since Rublev has been good in all the nard court matches since the Ausie Open and Norrie struggled in Round 3.     

Another day of unexpected results in the Top Half of the draw- especially Rune losing to Wawrinka who have not had any significant wins in tournaments for the past two years or more. 

I think part of the problem has been summarized by the comments of Demetrev when he said the court were slow - almost like clay courts - and  some players are proven strugglers when it came to performances.    It always was problematic when it came to past performances.   Take for instance Nadal - he did well in Indian Wells last year when he got to the final.   Nadal was really the best clay court player ever.  

Thus far even the winners struggled in the series and we are now down to only 11 seeded players.    It is very difficult to predict winners around this tournament in the quarterfinals of this tournament -  There are only 11 of the 32 seeded players still in the tournament in the upcoming Round 4 and that could also represent some problems in upcoming matches:-

My own guess is that the following may be in the quarterfinals:-

1   Carlos Alcarqaz

2   Taylor Fritz

3   Jannik Sinner

4   Alejadro Davidovich Fokina

5   Frances Tiafoe.    

The other 3 matches are up in the air.   The only player that face a reasonable opponent is Alcaraz - the others face weak opponents.    Medvedev and  Zverev both struggled somewhat against very average performers in matches thus far - same with Auger-Aliassime and Paul.   In the other case Rublev has gotten wins over Norrie in a number of previous tournaments and is the bookmakers favorite to win the match.    However, Rublev is unpredictable - he is unpredictable and has often in the past self-destructed but reaching the AUssie Open quarterfinals and was a finalist in Dubai indicated solid form.   That is why I did not add him to the list of winners I mentioned above.   

By the way Latest scores indicated that Nadal would lose another 6oo ranking points this week and he is at present no 12 in the rankings.   However, in the race to Torino he is not in the top 100 list.    He is following the same route as Federer did in his last two years of his playing career and if he loses in the Roland Garros tournament - he is likely to be out of the Top 50 ranked players unless he showed some improvement in the preceding clay tournaments.    The player most likely to slip out of the top 10 rankings in the Roland Garros tournament is Ruud .   He has been poor in matches in tournaments this year and his main claim to fame is in clay court tournaments.      We will have a long wait to Wimbledon to see how the rankings develop this year.   Last year no player got ranking points at Wimbledon and if the ban on Russian players are maintained the same will be the case this year.   There are rumors that the ban will be lifted.   In that event Djokovic will be the main beneficiary from it. 

Be it as it may - I cannot really see any unseeded players playing in the quarterfinals.    Anyway there are only 6 of the 10 seeded players still in the series and one of those will go in Round 4.   To those must be added 4 players seeded from 11 to 20  only 1 player (Davidovich Fokina) with a lower seeding.                                

QUARTERFINALS

Top Half of the Draw

1     Carlos Alcaraz                           vs       8     Felix Auger-Aliassime

4     Taylor Fritz                                vs     11    Jannik Sinner

Bottom Half of the Draw

5    Danill Medvedev                         vs     23   Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

10    Cameron Norrie                        vs     14   Frances Tiafoe

SEMIFINALS

1     Carlos Alcaraz                      vs            11     Jannik Sinner

5    Danill Medvedev                  vs            14      Frances Tiafoe

FINAL

1     Carlos Alcaraz                  vs             5    Danill Medvedev