2012 young Bok candidates struggling.

Last year I nominated Etzebeth, Coetzee, Kitshoff, Goosen and Jordaan as the creme de la creme of the young crop......the players most likely to break through. But a year later things haven't gone to script.

Etzebeth has emerged as a super star at test level....but has had to sit out much of the S15 with a nagging injury. Still he has made the breakthrough and on the YE tour last year became a force in the Bok team.

Coetzee after starting for the Boks was relegated to bench duties....an enthusiastic tackler, but not enough guile or fire power to unlock test defences. Nor does he have an effective fetching string to his bow. Personally I don't think this is going to change, even though he is an admirable young chap. 

Kitshoff is in serious trouble....he is leaking scrumming penalties and never, ever, get's his opposing tighthead under pressure. The suspicion is he may be good in general play, but not a power scrummager....another Deon Carstens?

Goosen showed great promise in his Aussie test debut, only to fade against the ABs. It seemed to be a problem of nerves....which manifested again at the star of the S15. Just when he was getting over that, yet another injury occured. His third major problem in 12 months. Will he get over this?

Finally Jordaan continues to disappoint. There is no doubt he has pace, but he can't seem to impose himself on games. And the way Robby Fruean ran over him says he is a long way from test capable. Younger centres like Serfontein will probably pass him by.

So we seem to have one certainty, an injury prone maybe and three guys who don't look like they will settle at test level. Sure it's early days, but progress should be apparent. So why aren't more of youngsters making a test case.

Well injuries are an important element...Etzebeth, Goosen, Taute and Steph du Toit have all had serious injuries in the last year. These young men are still growing into their bodies.....I think every one was rushed and it hurt their progress.

But more basically rugby has several funnels....into the CC, from CC to S15 and finally from S15 into tests. The last funnel is the narrowest of all....maybe one out of five is the norm.

Some very reasonable arguments - and some one-eyed interpretations of singleincidents happening in one game only.

Incidentally Du Toit did not have a serious injury ever.   He was off for three weeks with a muscle strain and then was brought into the game by playing him first for the Sharls under 21 team - Plumtree saw no reason to rush him back into the Sharks team - since the Supwr 15 was virtually over,  He nonetheless was in the squad for the Super 15 final in Waikato.   I believe Plumtree made a mistake by not using him in the CC final - where the WP locks completely over-shadowed the Sharks locks in line-outs causing problems for the Sharks.

And if you want to make an argument on players then make sure facts support your aarguments,   Jordaan missed one tackle on Fruan in traffic and Fruean was tackled by the next player  For the rest Fruaen never ran over one player in any way - so you are making a ridiculous statement.   Also you never saw that Jordaan beat Fruean twice in attacking play and that Jordaan/s tackling stats were 7 made 1 missed and those of Fruean 1 tackle made - one missed - that one being on Jordaan as well.  However, Jordaan thus far this year did not show the form he had last year - but that has likely more to do wiith what happened inside of him in the games he played in.   Fransie was hopelessly bad  and it did effect not only the play of Jordaan - but also of Pietersen.

Goosen and Taute were the really serious injury problems - the other injuries were relatively minor.

In conclusion I do believe you are right about players and the need to perform consistently through progress through the different levels of rugby.   Where I do not share your point of view is that you sometimes have  weird interpretations of single incidents in matches that you then turn into a players profile as relecting his whole career prospects.    You may deny it now - but your early comments on Etzebeth was negative and even more so in respect of Du Toit,  When Du Toit came on in the Rebels game and showed some real improvement - he was described as being hyper-active and not capable of lasting through a whole game.  Next game in the starting line-up he did remarkably well - so I suppose we are past the rag doll (also made by you last year) and hyper-active statements by  now.  Hope we can get to a real assessment of talent stage now for him in particular.

I am particularly hopeful that Serfontein comes through on higher level.   I was severly disappointed in his performance last year for the Bulls - when he played at Newlands against the Stormers in his first fully-fledged CC game - but that could possibly be the result of a total team flop by the Bulls on the day in question.   He really did show remarkable promise in the 120 minutes he played on Super 15 level - and seems to be a special player.

Other players to watch is De Allende - whom you already described incorrectly as deficient in speed - and also Visser at full back.   On Super 15 leve this year those two are the only ones apart form Du Toit and Serfontein that showed some talent in Super 15 this year - hence my request that you should watch them when they play and let us have your comprehensive comments on them 

 It just goes to show that each year will only produce at most a few new Springbok regulars, and at best one Springbok legend that will get over 50 caps. 

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It rubishes the Saffex approach that players should be selected just because they are young and meet his weight requirement- without outperforming the bok regulars in a proper competition like the Super 15. If a new player performs consistenly over the tournament, the stats will support this- as it did with Marcell Coetzee in last years SuperXV

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Players should be selected on performances, not the potential of being young in niave hope.

Look at Frans Steyn, at 19 years of age he is better than he is now. He has got worse not better.

It is about how a player performs now, not potential or reputation. 

Well that is the point I'm trying to make....that has gone right over Oom Mike's head.....it's very hard to predict which youngsters will be successful. At any point in time the Bok side is filled with long term incumbents and guys who get traded out.....perhaps eight or nine incumbents. The rest are guys like Juandre Kruger, Kirchner etc. They make the team but don't thrive at test level.

So if we say there are typically about 8 such players and they tend to last for 2 world cups....we find one player a year. In 2011 we never found one incumbent....in 2012 Etzebeth looks like that player.

The amateur selectors that think they can divine who these players are, delude themselves. It's a terribly hard school. A Jantjies had his moments last year....but his kicking goes off and suddenly Catrikilis and now Burton Francis look more dynamic. Coetzee had a fine start in last year's S15, but by the tests the opponents had deciphred his game.

You need something special, physically or mentally like a Wilkinson.....to succeed. And that can only be judged against test calibre opponents over a period of time.

Moz I only agree with your take on Jordaan as he has been exposed for his lack of physicality. It was something I feared, Fruean confirmed that this weekend. He is a gifted player, good speed and step - but needs to move to wing, where physicality is less of an issue.

I disagree with you on Kitshoff. He has been good in the scrums this year. He has been better than expected as I had fears that with Fourie at 2 and no Etzebeth at 4, the Stormers scrum would get slaughtered. This has not happened, in fact Malherbe and Kitshoff have enhanced their scrumming reputations. Kitshoff is progressing nicely and will be a good replacement for Beast. Penalty counts at scrum time are not an exact science at all, refs get 50% of these calls wrong.

Your take on Goosen in that AB test is wrong, it was not a nerve issue at all. Goosen should never have played that test, he went into that test with the injury he picked up against Oz the week before. Watch that NZ test again and you will see Goosen limping early on. Meyer was desperate to play him following his Oz performance. However, a question mark hangs over Goosen relating to his susceptibility to injuries.

Disagree on Coetzee, making the Bok starting side as a 20 year old is pretty impressive given the depth of our loosies. At 1.9m and 106kg he is more than adequate in the physical stakes and will get bigger, if he has not already. He showed against the Saders just how useful he is with ball in hand and in the tackle. The reason he was shifted to the bench was because Meyer intially thought he could do without a fetcher - he was wrong and brought Louw in as a fetcher. Coetzee in my opinion is best suited to 8, where he played at school and at U20 level. He is not a fetcher and not big enough for your traditional Bok 7 role.

Coetzee, Kitshoff and Goosen are our future, they will all play 50 plus tests for the Boks

Saffex

I do agree with you on the issues raised by you.  I also think that you actually agree with what I wrote about Du Toit and Serfontein. Of the other youngsters - what do you think the future hold for players like De Allende and Visser.   The latter looked good and he is a 1000 times better than Kirchner.

its been a tough year as one can see that the extended super rugby compy is really taking a toll on some players with the crazy amount of injuries.

that being said the type of game that SA teams are playing is not condusive to open attacking based rugby and as the net result i think our teams are suffering for it. it looks pattern wise to be more of meyer/coetzee defense forward obsessed defensive game plan. thats what it looks for me. there has been alot of injuries but the overall game pattern has changed. there is still some games left but the SA conf needs to take it up a gear. the juniors are playing decent rugby but there own talents seem to be canned for the collective of the team. goosen had a decent start to the season but once again had a horrific injury.

burton francis looks a different player at the cheetahs. shows how a coach and game pattern/approach to rugby can have a effect on a player. at the stormers burton looked like a no show. this all just reflects how rubbish the stormers game pattern really is.

Moz there is validity in your argument. 50 cap boks are rare and eyeing them at an early stage is hit and miss. Etzebeth seems to be the only candidate from last year's young one's so far. This year I think there is another one coming through in Serfontein. He needs another season at this level at least. He still has one year for the baby Bok so give him time Etzebeth only really broke through after his finaol baby bok year.

Kitshoff might play a few games for the boks and Malherbe as well however at this stage it doesn't look like they are defenite 50 cappers. Coetzee the same thing as Labuschagne, Botha and Kolisis are also good candidates in the loose.

I just wonder about the young kid from the Kings, Sergeal Peterson, I haven't seen his name in the baby bok side, I understand that yes he is very young, but still Pollard was pulled up last year and is the same age. Might the baby bok management be overlooking a potential star in the making here?

Ek

Petersen was not in the Baby Bok trials and the reason given was that the Kings needed him at Super 15 level.  he was not excluded from potential selection at all and is likely to be in the squad for the JWC - sine I do not think he would have to do other national duty in June.

Ek

Petersen was not in the Baby Bok trials and the reason given was that the Kings needed him at Super 15 level.  he was not excluded from potential selection at all and is likely to be in the squad for the JWC - sine I do not think he would have to do other national duty in June.

 OK so he is in the wider group then? I saw Serfonteins name there but not Peterson and Serfontein was on tour with the Bulls. Therefore my automatic conclusion would be that Peterson is not selected in the wider squad. Yes I agree he won't be on any other national duty or on Kings duty during June so there is no reason he cannot be picked. 

Lastly the Kings don't have much of a choice in the matter as far as I understand. The Baby Bok side is ranked as our B team thus they have to make him available, and even if he wasn't avaiable he should still be mentioned.

So i hope your answer is correct, I don't have anything to prove it otherwise I will have to take it as such but The answer does sound suspicious to me.

Ek

Theron was very specific about what he said before the Baby Bok trials.  He said that the trial teams are provisional and specuific players from Super 15 franchises would not be included.   Serfontein was not in the frontline selection category - while Petersen was a definite for the Kings side.  In any event Petersen was not in the trials squad - but Super 15 is even a more difficult trial arena to perform.in - so I am very sure he is bound to be in the final JWC squad.  

 I really do hope you are right. This kid could play for the Baby boks for a while.

Well Ek I think we are thinking the same way on this. But that thinking allows us to change our minds if performances change. It's based on the idea that you have lots of experiments (players) at a young stage.....and don't lock in to a few anointed players. Guys like Alberts, Louw, Jannie, Strauss and Vermeulen are all "blue collar" Boks.....guys who would not have been among the "chosen" at a young age.

If Goosen gets over his injury woes, perhaps he will come back and challenge. I have to disagree with Dave and agree with you.....Coetzee and Kitshoff are just candidates.....not sure fire Boks for 50 caps.

Obviously Moz. Only a fool cannot change his mind based on performance change. you can essentially only work with what is in front of you and everything is always fluid.

Goosen at this stage is on the shelf. He has all the talent to become a 50 cap bok. but we still need to see him perform over an extended period as his injuries seem to be disrupting any possible concistency. Hopefully this injury is the final straw. Otherwise i see another Glass Man Pretoius issue. All the talent but just not the body to keep up.

I hope that your Blue Collar Boks will include the Phenomenal Robert ebersohn this year. :) nice way of putting it. 

Ek

There are some issues that I believev is really the case.   It is very difficult to identify tight forwards when they are very young.  It is rarely the case that props for example reach their top strength level before the age of 23  or 24 and in the meantime they also get more experience in scrumming and other facets of the game.   I will therefore not at this early stage write off youngstrs like Kitshoff and Malherbe or make any predictions of a sustainable future Springbok career for them.   I know Malherbe personally and I also know his family background.  He has the right attitude and I think also the determination to carry through with what he is doing.

Etzebeth as a lock is a real exception - but I do believe Du Toit is in the same category.   Du Toit is this year only of the same age as Etebeth was last year bwhen  he came through the Super 15 - a huge amount of potential same as Etzebeth shown last year..

Serfontein also seems a class above the rest.

To my mind there are two aspects that distinguished players who can make it through to international level.  The one is obviously physical - but the second element is much more problematic.  It is psychological in nature.

*    The determination to succeed  on the highest level

*    The belief in the player that he can function on the highest lvel

*    Self-discipline

*    The social environement impacting on his character from an early age.

If all the above is in evidence - the chances are likely that the new social environment in which they fuind themselves on Super 15 and higher level will not impact negatively on their playing careers.   It will prevent the kind of Zac Guildford case from arising.

That being said - some players mature earlier than others.   According to the Foxsport site - the best loosie in the whole Super 15 is Labuschagne.   He definitely this year is a touch above the rest and he performs on top level week after week.   However, he is already 24 years of age and obviously a latte developer.  I sometimes listen to the comments of the new Zealand commentators and also the Re-Union programme.  They are raving about him all the time.  I did not know about him before and was really impressed by him at this stage of Super 15.   He seems to be a very hard one.   If he tackles anybody that bloke knows he was tackled and he makes major contributions in both the tighter and looser facets of the game - also in making turnovers in possession.     At this stage of Super 15 he is way above the rest - and the rest includes all the SA, Australian and New Zealand loosies.  He probably is the real new find of this year.