Firstly, thanks for the interesting and varied response to last week’s column and to the majority of you for keeping it civil!
I didn’t expect unanimous approval of my point about overseas players in the Springboks compared to the NZRUs zero tolerance policy, but it is worth debating given just how poles apart the two countries are.
Having questioned the Saru policy, I must say the latest injury to Dan Carter does underline the risk in the NZRU strategy to try and keep some of the senior guys around until 2015.
Carter has pulled out of the first two tests against Australia, this time with a “mild” calf strain, raising new concerns about his ability to continue at top level.
It’s the seventh test that Carter has missed since the beginning of last year, having sat out two against France earlier in 2013.
Once upon a time the loss of Carter would send shivers of trepidation through New Zealand fans, but it’s worth noting that the All Blacks have won all 10 tests in which Aaron Cruden has started including the World Cup semi against Australia (he didn’t last long in the final), and others against South Africa, Wales and the French. He does not have the full range of Carter's kicking game, but he is direct on attack and brave on defence. He was a key to the Chiefs' success.
As for Carter, he is still the best in my book, but there are some Kiwi fans who are saying that it is time to move on. The All Blacks are managing to groom some useful successors in most positions, but their hookers are getting on in years, and there is no depth in midfield, where Nonu and Smith are first and daylight second, so things could get interesting over the next couple of months if they get injured.
It adds to the intrigue as we eye the opening round of the second edition of the four-team Rugby Championship this weekend.
There are no shortages of sub plots, with some extra variables being provided by the new scrum engagement laws which have been rushed in ahead of schedule so that our teams will not be at a major disadvantage in the Northern Hemisphere later in the year.
The All Blacks have been practicing the “crouch, bind, set” sequence and say one of the big changes is that because the teams are no longer able to dominate the hit it will require the hooker to actually hook the ball…just like in the old days, and this may favour the defending scrum.
Because no advantage is gained from the initial engagement, it then comes down to what happens once the packs are set, and this could prove energy sapping. Therefore two good prop subs are a must.
And it worries me that the refs are now going to call the feed. This brings back nightmare memories of Aussie whistle blower Wayne Erickson, who used to insist on standing between the halfback and the scrum and not allowing the put-in until he was satisfied all was in order, which was an excruciating process.
AND they tell us they will be strict on straight scrum feeds (I think we’ve heard that before).
The Wallabies will make their first appearance under new coach Ewen McKenzie. Often in sport a sudden change of coach can spark a change of fortune, albeit temporary.
When Robbie Deans was chopped for McKenzie there was a lot of bullish talk in the Aussie media about the importance of having an Aussie back in charge (understandable) and how sights were on getting the Bledisloe Cup back after a ten year absence.
Things have quietened down a bit since, with calls for fans to be realistic, but the All Blacks seem to have latched onto the McKenzie factor and are using it as part of their own motivation.
They remember the way they were thumped by the Wallabies in Robbie Deans's first test back in 2008, and know how important it could be to put the new Aussie regime quickly on the back foot.
They also remember their shabby performance last time out against the Wallabies, which ended in an 18-all draw and stymied their attempt at the longest winning streak in test rugby history. It hurt.
This match doubles as the first of three Bledisloe Cup tests, and you’d have to think if the Wallabies can’t win in Sydney, they are not going to win two in New Zealand.
On paper Australia look strong enough, certainly stronger than last year when they were missing James Horwill and Israel Folau was playing AFL. It’s just a matter of whether they can nullify the All Blacks up front, and how quickly the inevitable new combinations can gel.
With our ITM Cup competition not starting until this coming weekend, the All Blacks availed themselves of a rather novel preparation in which they split a game last Friday against the Wellington and Canterbury sides, 40 minutes each.
The Pumas have probably had as good a preparation as any, without the back end of Super Rugby to restrict their buildup. They’ve been in Florida and had a hit out against a touring Waratahs side and will hope to catch the Springboks off guard.
I can’t see that happening, even if the Boks' preparation hasn’t been ideal. They certainly look strong on paper, and there will be the massive emotional impact of Nelson Mandela Day to draw on. It should be an amazing day and I look forward to watching it all from afar.
I’ll be interested to see how the Boks play it. I can’t imagine they’ll stray far from their traditional strengths, but they’ll be even more dangerous if they can tap into the form Bryan Habana showed in the latter part of Super Rugby, and the multi-faceted talents of Willie le Roux.
All Blacks and Springboks to draw first blood, but I can’t see either game being a blowout, and I think the match in Sydney could be very close.
