All Blacks need an overhaul

OPINION: It's hard to know where to begin.

Personnel, gameplan, attitude; there's all sorts the All Blacks have to look at ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

You hesitate to get too hysterical in the aftermath of New Zealand's 16-9 loss to Ireland. In isolation it's not the end of the world. Ireland are a good side and played well and there's no disgrace in losing to them.

But when you look at the result in light of how the All Blacks have gone against South Africa this year, and the hard work they made of beating England, you start to wonder if we're watching a great All Blacks team coming to the end of its run.

Damian McKenzie just isn't a starting international fullback. Let him run rings around minnows or light up Super Rugby, but don't start him in a test match of consequence.

Ryan Crotty and Sonny Bill Williams? Good players, absolutely world-class at times, but neither packs a great punch these days. With teams rushing up on defence the All Blacks need a midfield player who can break tackles and create momentum.

That man is probably Ngani Laumape.

As there does with No.8 Kieran Read. But he's the captain and therefore a special case.

All Blacks coach Steve Hansen knows this territory. Daniel Carter was in it during the years prior to the 2015 world cup. Hansen persevered with him and was able to turn around afterwards and say his belief in Carter was justified.

You assume he'll back proven types such as Aaron Smith and Read to reiterate their class next year, as Carter did at the previous world cup.

Blindside flanker's another spot where a change wouldn't go astray. Liam Squire's a handy runner down the tramlines, but you wonder if this team needs someone with a physical threat.

Men such as Michael Jones, Jerry Collins and Jerome Kaino weren't just fine players, they could hit on defence and opponents kept a weather eye out for them.

Right now opponents are dominating the All Blacks physically, with and without the ball. That's a worry and makes the McKenzie experiment a nonsense.

Have two playmakers if you must, but at least do them the courtesy of having a platform to play off.

We're told there's a new gameplan and it's taking time to bed in. From this distance there just seems to be a lot of kicking, from players ill-suited to that job in Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett, and a passive attitude.

If you're going to give the other team the ball, then your defence needs to be a lot more ferocious than New Zealand's has been. They've repeatedly conceded the gainline to teams and back-pedalled as a result.

Were Ireland a more creative side, they might have won Sunday's test in Dublin by 20 points.

Despite Ben Smith's outstanding record at fullback, Hansen seems wedded to playing him on the wing. Well, if he's determined to play Smith there instead of Waisake Naholo, and wants two pivots, then we're reaching the point where Beauden Barrett needs to start at 15. That solves the tactical issue at first five-eighth as well.

Richie Mo'unga is well-versed in the gameplan Hansen appears to have adopted, leaving Barrett to play more on instinct from fullback. McKenzie could then provide an additional attacking option off the bench.

It's odd to hear Hansen casting forward to next year and talking openly about tweaks. As cliched as it is, taking one game at a time has actually served the team well.

Yet there was Hansen after the England win already mentioning 2019. They still had Ireland to play.

That speaks to the muddle the team are in. They seem confused about how to counter the opposition and at a point where they hope things might work, rather than knowing they will.

In the process they've made some robust, but really rather limited, England and Ireland teams look like world beaters.

For back-to-back world cup winners, the All Blacks look anything but right now.

totally agree,... except for Crotty's remark,.... Crotty is the best nº12 in the country,.... Laumape had a very good game against the Japaneses,... first time I saw he broke his unidimensional approach to the game,... he has to build from there,... but he has still a long way in front of him,... it was Japan, after all,.... this last SR season he was stopped quite easily by the other NZ teams' defenses,... except the Blues,... having said that, he should have been in the EOYT since the beginning to have more gametime, aquire experience and see how he goes against better opposition,... hope he gets gametime against Italy
playing a wreking ball carrier at nº12 is not the only way to break a rushing defense,... Crotty has done it playing with the saders

here's a part of another article (Five things we learnt from the epic in Dublin) about the issue:

"5. Beauden Barrett is demonstrably better at fullback.

The All Blacks didn't waste much time bringing Richie Mo'unga on in the second half - and it  changed the All Blacks' attack.
Suddenly the All Blacks had a No 10 who stood flat, attacked the line, drew defenders and, crucially, put the ball in front of his forward (and midfield) runners so they could come onto the ball at pace.
Just as significantly, it released Beauden Barrett a little wider and he threatened to cut the Irish to ribbons.
It shouldn't be taken as gospel that Barrett is better at No 10 because the All Blacks say it is so - other coaches would disagree. ."

Problem for them is, as you start loosing more, your luck also seems to vanish. Teams now fancy their chances and take the game to you more.

I believe the fighting term is "front runner". Someone that is very good at winning when they are in the lead. A confidence fighter. The ABs have been so skilled for so long that they inevitably a confidence team.

Similar to Mike Tyson. His natural talent was so vast that he blew most people away. But when he got into an actual fight with someone that gave him no respect, he usually lost.

Not saying that this is the AB future, but in some way it applies to their current situation.

They're gonna have to learn how to scrap and grind out wins by inches rather than flash if they want to transition to their new team with as few hiccups as possible.

hi rooi,

the problem, as I see it, is that this wasn't just a loss,.... it has been a trend these last  2 years,... and it's not time to panic, as you say, but IMO it's time to change some players or their position
the main change should be to play with a real nº10,... and to stop asap the BB-DMac experiment,... as many of us predicted, didn't work against the aussies, didn't work against England and it was shown up against Ireland,... both are FBs and both struggle when pressured,... the AB need a truly nº10,... and the only one able and up to test level at this moment is Mo'unga,...

but Mo'unga is now lacking test experience,... these 3 last games have been a waste of time sticking with the dupla BB-DMac,.... they tried to overcome the rushing defense with BB at 10 and Jordie at FB,... failed, and Jordie himself failed,... tried with BB at 10 and B. Smith at FB,... failed,... and they stuck with BB at 10 but this last time with DMac at FB in what was very obviously going to be another failure,... and a waste of very precious time before the WC,... not playing Mo'unga at 10 these last 3 games have been a management mistake

At FB there are IMO 2 players very clearly over the rest,... B. Smith and B. Barrett,... B. Smith is the most reliable wing-FB in the world,... and BB is the most dangerous attacking player,... I think both can perfectly play together,... BB at FB and B. Smith wing,... probably the bests games of B. Smith for the AB have been at wing
Jordie is very green yet,... he should have been playing NPC learning the job,... it was too soon for him and I think this has been another management mistake

Squire has been very disappointing these 3 last games,... I thought he was the clear replacement of Kaino,... he has the physicality for it,... but he's been completely awol,... I also doubt now he's AB quality,... and as you say, there's no much depth at blindside
Akira Ioane and Fifita are 2 very skillful and physical players,... but they also tend to go awol,... even more than Squire,... especially when the game gets tight,... there's another option, Jordan Taufua,.... but he's been so unlucky with the timing of his minor injuries these last 2 years that it's probably too late for him before the WC,... and there's Frizell who seems to have all to be a great blindside,... probably a little bit green yet in some aspects,... but let see how much he can progress next year

another possibility could be to play:

6. K. Read   7. M. Todd   8. A. Savea

Savea is not an openside and doesn't play as such at test level,... huge commitment and workrate,... but the AB lost the breakdown battle against the English and against the Irish,... his best game was as nº8,....

ABF

Life becomes very difficult for some players like Barret and McKenzie when the opposition starts to read their game better and finds ways and means to limit what they can do.   It is what happened to Milner-Skudder as well.   I can remember a lot of players who got find out and became less effective.

I would hence agree with you that Barrett should be moved to full back and be replaced by Mo'unga.   That would give Barrett more space and it is in fact important for the team as a whole. 

I have reservations about Ben Smith - he seemed to be less effective at full back and on the wing then he used to be in years gone by.   I think Naholo is good in attack - but he is not the full quality wing Ioane is.   I would rather see George Bridge on the wing ahead of both Naholo and Smith. 

I am not as sure as you are about Crotty - all those concussion injuries may have had some effect on his performances, but he is not the player he used to be even a year ago.   However, as you stated Luamape has limitations, but he may or my not end up as a candidate to replace Crotty.   I would think Crotty  is likely to stick  around until the WC next year - but I hope injury does not impact on his performances next year.

I think the most disappointing player amongst the forwards is in fact Read.    He is not the player he used to be in 2015  and his last few test appearances were seriously disappointing.   Fact is another year may in fact even show a further slide in performance.    Wish he was already replaced by Akira Ioane.

The other two players I found on the slide performance wise is Sam Whitelock  and Squire should not be near the side.   I would in fact rather pick Frizell ahead of Squire as a 6,   

AS to Aaron Smith - is it not time to find a willing lady and send both of them into a toilet.   He would be better in that than he is on the rugby field. What about looking at Pulu of the Blues as a real future prospect?        

It is good that they lost - Gets rid of the complacency.

been thinking about the significance of the last AB loss,..... if it's nothing to worry about, just a loss,.... or something more important

the first Irish loss in 2016 could be considered as just a loss,... something that sooner or later had to come,... and it came in a period of time where the AB were completely dominant,... that loss didn't break that dominance,... and it's completely understandable that in a 2 year period to have a day-off,...

but this last loss comes as a culmination of a worrying downhill trend that begun with the Lions,... and with the most important teams applying a very fast rushing defense,... the rushing defense has been the AB's kryptonite,.... the coaching team have been unable to find a solution,... as I wrote in another threat:

"Hansen and co. at the beginning of the season toutted and toutted that this year the AB were going to find the solution against the problematic rushing defense and step up to a new level on attack,... didn't happen,... they are unable to translate the (NZ teams') SR form to the test level, they are unable to find a tactical or strategic solution to the rushing defense and they are unable to select the best players to face this defense,..."

and here's an article that confirms this worrying trend:

It is not just the Ireland loss that should be concerning All Blacks fans.

If it were the picture for next year would be looking a lot rosier.

Instead, we need to have a clear but hard look at the All Blacks' results this year.

They show something deeper: against top five-ranked nations, the only games that matter, the All Blacks actually have a negative points differential.

That may be unpalatable but the numbers are what they are.

Against South Africa, England and Ireland the All Blacks' record is two wins and two losses.

That in itself isn't the best return but it's the figures beneath the win-loss ratio that point to the bigger concern.

In those four tests the All Blacks scored 91 points and conceded 97.

(there's an infograph impossible to copy &paste, saying that against teams outside the top5 the AB scored 392 points while received 155, if someone want to watch it:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/108718619/all-blacks-v-italy-stats-show-abs-are-in-negative-territory-against-top-five-sides-in-2018

Clearly the two tests against South Africa could have gone either way - one win apiece is probably a fair reflection of where the two teams are.

But the All Blacks needed a bit of luck to get home against England and for good periods of the second half in Dublin they weren't in a position to win that match on the scoreboard.

At the end they were frantically trying just to secure a draw.

It's a reality that should undercut the 'it's just one test' argument and the idea that the Ireland loss was actually a positive because it will produce 'learnings'.

If this all seems confronting it may be due to the way we all process information.

In 2018 the All Blacks had three thumping wins against an historically poor Wallabies side, currently ranked six in the world.

The Bledisloe points differential this year was +70 to New Zealand - the Wallabies just weren't in the contest.

Those big wins, plus some handy numbers against an under-strength French side who rested their inspirational captain Guilhem Guirado, contributed to the feelgood idea that everything was on track.

But when the All Blacks came up against the Springboks, who had the ability to throw some punches of their own, things started to look tougher.

The past fortnight against England and Ireland have confirmed that.

So when did this all start?

(...)

Statistics tell you nothing about the future - nothing concrete anyway.

But what they do say is this: against weaker opponents this year the All Blacks have clubbed sixes to all parts of the ground.

Against top sides, however, they behind on the scoreboard.

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B&I Lions, South Africa, England and Ireland are the teams that applied a rushing defense

ABF

Thanks for the article - it really is enlightening.   However, it deals with a broad basis with issues and did not deal with problems with certain player struggling with form.

I think the broad as well as specific issues need to be dealt with,  I am sure Hansen will realize some player performances have deteriorated and he may try to get them back on track or he may starting to experiment in tests without really rocking the boat.

Thanks Plum - we knew you would eventually come around .

It's easy to coach a side of superstars ... especially when they're settled.

Losing the best 10 the planet has ever seen ... as well as top of the line players like Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu and Richie McCaw will bring any coach back down to earth.

Usually the mighty All Blacks would have prepared for the inevitable retirement of these class acts by blooding young talent and exposing them to test match rugby as much as possible.

The coach is in two minds and hsn't been comfortable with his backline selections since his top players retired. The rest of the world knew that Barrett was the better 10 and yet he was constantly being overlooked ... kept as cover on the bench for a chump.

The over rated SBW had the coach jumping through hoops at one stage.

We've seen full backs on the wing in place of monster wings like Savea or Naholo.

Hansen is like Meyer ... a poor coach when he it comes to doing it all himself. Eventually one can no longer rely on what another better man put together. Eventually one has to build one's own legacy and not ride on the coattails of the previous coach ... and that's where all the wheels fell off.

Get rid of him and bring new blood in at the helm.

He has tried many numbers of combinations. He doesn't know know who his best payers are and has fallen back on some very poor performers. He hasn't decided where he stands on Barrett or Mo'unga. It's been musical chairs all season. Slow to react to the decline in play of Aaron Smith. Hansen is being shown up here. Clearly not the architect Henry was. 

Yes ... I agree. Too many poor decisions has taken it's inevitable toll.

Losing to a quota riddled Bok side was warning enough that things needed to change.

What would have happened had Rasie selected our best 23? We could easily have walked away with a recor5d score against them on home soil.

Our plan for next year