Our analyst Sam Larner returns to Planet Rugby and this week looks at where Wales got it wrong in their Rugby World Cup loss to South Africa.
Four years ago in Brighton, Japan found the key to beating South Africa. They knew they couldn’t cope with the South African power so they tried to avoid that strength. They just about coped when South Africa had the put-in at the scrum and on their own scrum they fired the ball to the number eight immediately and played it away quickly. On Sunday, Wales tried to replicate this approach. They were dynamic on their own scrum but whereas Japan were expansive and moved the ball, Wales were very conservative. Where did their game plan work and where did it fall apart?
One of the ways they took control of their own scrums was through an inventive use of number eight Ross Moriarty. The screenshot above is from the try which put Wales level at 16-16 in the second-half. Moriarty lines up to bind like any usual number eight, head between the two second-rows.
Once the hit is made Moriarty bounces between Aaron Wainwright and Adam Beard. That puts him in a position to be closer to scrum-half Tomos Williams and therefore the ball. The Welsh scrum comes under huge pressure but Moriarty is able to snatch it from the second-row’s feet before Wales concede a penalty. The added benefit is that it changes the offside line. That drew Faf de Klerk in because he believes he can catch Moriarty before he can offload the ball. Moriarty gets it away however and Williams acts as fly-half creating a three on two overlap. Josh Adams is the beneficiary.
It is a small thing but it helped Wales take control of their own scrums against a far superior South African pack.
The problem for Wales was their approach everywhere else. It does not take a tactical genius to understand that when facing a big pack you want to move them around. Japan showed that against Ireland. Against a small pack you want to go through them, as South Africa showed against Japan. We can measure if a team is moving the opposition around by looking at their passes per ruck metric. Anything above two is Fiji levels of expansive play. We expect to see the likes of England, Wales, Australia etc coming in around the 1.7-1.9 mark. Below 1.5 means not very expansive at all with a team like Russia, the least expansive at the World Cup, scoring 1.2. Wales’ passes per ruck on Sunday was 1.2. They saw the large pack of South Africa but decided to go through them rather than around.
That is surprising when you consider the early success Wales had with an expansive game plan. S’busiso Nkosi marks the end of the defensive line and he is more than 15 metres infield with Adams clinging to the touchline. This is a great attacking opportunity. The Welsh defence is very flat though. Adams can see the overlap he has and should be trying to get deeper so he can run onto a pass from Jonathan Davies or Leigh Halfpenny, the two players stood on his inside. Adams has to stop and than start running once Davies flings the miss pass out to him. That does not prevent this going any further however. The issue is the pass from Davies which drifts at least five metres forward. This more expansive play ‘worked’ for Wales here were it not for a poorly executed pass from Davies. The problem is that Wales never tried to replicate it.
Even after 20 phases hammering at the South African line Wales still refused to budge from their conservative game plan. As the above image shows, they had options but decided to keep going through pick and drives. As the game became more and more nervous Wales retreated even further into their conservative game plan. It played into the hands of South Africa who slowly strangled the Welsh attack.
England have played expansively all tournament. Eddie Jones will set them up to play away from the South African strength. If England can repeat what they did against New Zealand then they will beat anyone. The challenge is to see whether England can repeat or whether they will be drawn into a trench battle with South Africa.
