Are Boks facing mission impossible?

If history is anything to go by, the Springboks are facing mission impossible as they head to Australia and New Zealand at the end of this week.

The Boks already have a plethora of tasks to fulfil to get their game back on track after the poor showing in Mendoza last weekend, but coach Heyneke Meyer will face the unenviable task of playing at two of the most inhospitable venues for Springbok rugby in history and will have to overcome that as well as determined opposition if the Boks are to beat both sides for the first time since 2009 away from home.

If you had to look at it purely from a historical perspective, the Boks might as well hand over the flight tickets and simply concede the games, as they haven’t won any of their nine previous games at the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, while their last victory at the World Cup final venue of Eden Park was way back in 1937 – a startling 76 years ago.

Of course, there was the 18-all draw in 1994 at the famous Auckland ground but other than that, there hasn’t been anything resembling a success for the Springboks in the Antipodes in the Castle Lager Rugby Championship or the competition's previous incarnation, the Tri-Nations.

Yet, there is a sense of optimism going ahead, particularly as Australia are currently struggling with their game-plan. First they lost the test series to the British and Irish Lions, and over the past fortnight they also lost the Bledisloe Cup – with both defeats being more than comprehensive.

The Wallabies are likely to change their squad and their approach somewhat for the Boks, but as always, the South African team simply need to concentrate on their own failings in Mendoza, particularly at the breakdown, if they are to gain any success in the away leg of this year’s competition.

While it may be a bit unfair that the Boks are the only side who will face three consecutive away matches, these are odds that Heyneke Meyer and his coaching team will have to overcome.

BAD DAY AT THE OFFICE

But while the Mendoza result may have caused unnecessary unhappiness among Bok supporters, it could simply be the case of a bad day at the office, with a referee who allowed too much leeway at the breakdown, a stop-start game and a Bok side who seem to struggle in Argentina at the moment.

There is no doubt the Bok performance wasn’t anywhere near the standard needed for the Antipodes, but last year the Boks did a whole lot worse in Mendoza, then went on to narrow defeats in Australasia shortly afterwards.

They led Australia at halftime but couldn’t hold on, while a goalkicker worth his salt in Dunedin would have ensured a famous victory for the Boks there.

So perhaps the glass isn’t as empty as supporters believe at the moment.

It is true the expectation was probably too high after the annihilation of FNB Stadium, and perhaps that affected the Boks as well.

A sober look at the stats sees the Boks winning all their ball at setpiece – they did not lose one of their nine scrums or nine lineouts on the day.

Their performance at the breakdown was lethargic, with Ruan Pienaar’s pedestrian service part of the problem.

But despite all of that, they conceded only seven penalties on the day – in the face of intimidation of the worst kind.

The most worrying aspect was the performance of individuals on defence – their inability to adapt to both the referee and the way the opposition attacked them at the breakdowns.

With Michael Hooper waiting in Brisbane, the Wallabies will have taken note of the Boks' frailties in this area, and will want to attack them in this area.

After all, against both Scotland and Argentina, the Bok pack looked at their most vulnerable when they didn’t control the breakdown area.

Considering Richie McCaw’s dominance in this past weekend’s test in Wellington for the All Blacks - he led his team’s stats in breakdown arrivals with 26, while making 14 tackles and five assists – things aren’t likely to be any easier in Auckland when they get there.

Mendoza provided a stark reminder that while things go well at home, away from the comforts of South Africa you have to be at your best in every game. That is nowhere more true than in the next fortnight in Brisbane and Auckland where this Bok team will face an acid test against the odds.

Last year they bounced back from the Mendoza disappointment to look better but were not quite good enough.

How they will bounce back from their Mendoza moment this time around is anyone’s guess. There is enough to work on to keep the Boks busy over the next fortnight.

The Boks can only answer this one – and they will have to on a mission impossible against the old enemies.

The Boks allways seems to get the shit end of the stick in the tournament schedules, just like in the SuperXV. 

The Boks are now the only team to play 3 away games consecutively.

Not sure why SARU just accept this crappy schedule, but then again half the team is now in France playing club rugby instead of at home resting and preparing for a very tough overseas tour.

 SARU probably get paid hansomely by the French clubs so they are all sorted. Oskins and co are laughing all the way to the bank

 Short answer to heading: Yes!

Impossible? I highly doubt so. The Boks do have the potential to win all their remaining games. But for that to happen there are some things they must asess:

1) Breakdown efficiency: Regardless of whichever backrow combination is picked, the Bok forwards must play to the ball. They performed well against Samoa, but Scotland and Argentina (despite being without our two best breakdown exponents, Lobbe and Albacete) gave them a very hard time. Quick, clean ball at ruck time gives the Bok the chance to launch their much vaunted carriers at speed. It turns into a demolition. However, one messy ball and the whole process can be rendered toothless. Carriers are easily identified, brought down with low tackles, and isolated.  What I noticed is the trend to just "hit" the opponents at ruck time, with little attention given to the ball itself, the angles, body positioning, and such. The Boks need to be more street wise against the likes of Hooper, McCaw, Read, Mowen, Whitelock, Horwill, Cane...

2) Effective use of ball carriers: Maybe it's time to mix things up? Would be nice to see all these big carriers like Alberts, Vermeulen and Etzebeth mixed among the backs. Modern backline play is all about showing and hiding. Showing decoys that will make the defenders sit on their heels, slowing down their drifting defense, thus reducing their ability to execute aggressive tackles -- all this while hiding a player that will run an inward angle, or catch a pop pass, or someone lining up a grubber for an outside back to contest...

3) Tactical kicking: Well executed tactical kicks, with proper variety and timing, can be deadly. For example, both Wallabies and ABs defend with their scrum-halves between the last forward and the first back come lineout time. This leaves a vast area behind the line, that could potentially be exploited with a well timed chip kick and a swift chase (a la Willie le Roux?). Julian Savea has shown massive improvement in terms of positional play and handling high balls. But his kicking game is virtually non-existant compared to that of Ben Smith. The Boks do have the weapons to exploit this.

As many others said before, the Boks gameplay relies on the most exquisite execution. Personally, I'd like to see some personnel changes for the remaining games, but if that does not occur, I still believe they have the potential to upset their rivals.

Mission impossible will be a complement. We are going to get slaughtered. Meyer is rotten to the core and has dealt SA Rugby a severe blow. Mike i cannot agree with you more and i have been saying this for a long time here.

I am going to keep my mouth shut here for 10 days till after the Aussie game. I will stand up and be counted thereafter. If i am wrong i will not hide and take every bit of abuse thrown at me but i cannot see that happening at all. We are screwed.

 OleCruz, what are your thoughts on Springbok play at the breakdown?

It does seem that the bok pack becomes toothless when the opposition teams beat them at the breakdown, and this seems to happen way to often.

It seems the bok pack may have the strongest carriers in world rugby but its a chicken and egg situation, because even if the Boks have the strongest carriers, if they cant run onto the ball at speed through multiphase pick and carries - then it is all for nothing.

Etzebeth was easily contained in Argentina, as were many of the forwards except for Vermuelen and Strauss.

Perhaps the boks need 2 fetchers in the loose forwards?, although this could mean less strong carriers.

Sometimes it just looks clumsy and slow at the base of the rucks for the Springboks, and teams that can put the boks under pressure at the breakdown cant render the boks toothless.

 Thanks Thomas for some interesting points and shaming those  suggesting we have no chance. Seldom have I read such pathetic drivel. Imagine we have to have a kiwi like saSUE and an Argie like Thomas telling us we have a chance!

Thanks also for picking up on cleaners where Mallet focused saying our props and Juandre were not doing this effectively. To me we were fanned out and concentrsating a lot on defence.Pumas hit the rucks in pods. Louw was isolated a lot of the time. 

Sharkbok I think having Deon Fourie and Louw at 6 and 7 is a very nice propect. Vermuelen at 8. I also think its time to give Coenie a start. We must start with Vermaak as well. JJ to wing and Jan at 13. 

Come on Meyer call up Fourie the best small loose forward in rugby - and that includes wee mcaaaaaw who has been very ordinary if the facts could speak for themsleves and not groupies. He is about twice as quick as wee mcaaaw, very strong, agressive and is superb on the ground. Also has a huge workrate. Twice the palyer of brussouw who muncher goes on about incessantly but who has been sub for a few seasons now.

I cannot but think we are better off than last year when we were 20 points better than the abs at Dunedin. Of course we have a chance! Can some oaks please man up!

 Rugganut hahahahahahahahahaha I love your honesty! We are ALL looking forward to the Brisbane Test!

Mike while I love your statistics, here is what Wayne Smith said about statistics<"

"Media analysts love to roll out the stats. They point to the number of missed tackles by one team or the percentage of territory of the other, but the surface numbers are utterly meaningless. They tell coaches next to nothing about the game. The stats are often numerical fiction.

The tackle area is a good example of why stats do lie, of why they are completely misleading without the detail. Commentators look at the ratio of missed tackles. But one player can make 100% of his tackles in a match and it tells you nothing about their effectiveness. Every tackle could have been a passive tackle, made behind the gain line, allowing the opposition to win quick ball without committing numbers. Another player may make only eight out of ten of his tackles, but the eight he made are dominant tackles. He made his tackles past the gain line, put the runner on his back, shut down the offload, forced the opposition to send in three or four players to clean out. And maybe two of those tackles created turnover ball off which his team scored. And maybe the two that he missed were desperate scrambling efforts. Yet the second player is ranked behind the first player on the media stat sheet. You might as well throw the paper in the bin. It would do less harm there."

@mike beeno has the love affair with fourie and is trying to convince us all that fourie is a international level opensider even though he barly cuts it at CC level not to mention super rugby level. a man that played about 10 years of his life at hooker is not deemed good enough to attack the likes of mccaw hooper and co....utter madness

in regards to he cleanout pods yes the pumas game plan at the breakdown was great but what mallets post match breakdown does not show is the fact to counter the clean out pods you need to beat them to the ruck and either bridge the ruck if your a open sider or have a much lower body angle to make is very very tough to get you off the ball.

Louw was to slow most of the times...he body position was rubbish but being a bigger lose forward at around 110kg plus physics tells you in order for him to go down any lower he will go off his feet and louw has a rubbish center of gravity as well. so nothing counts in his favour. the biggest thing being he is to slow to counter and ruck clearing measure. where the liks of brussouw and hooper are much smaller and how the center themselves above a ruck is light years ahead than that of louw.....mccaw on the other hand just plays the borders of the law very well.

Sorry for the delay guys!

Mike

I don't know yet. I've been training with the main squad these days. As a matter of fact I am in a break now, scorfing some beef sandwiches with the guys and reading some technical stuff. The squad announcement is due to be made within hours now that Pablo Matera has been found not guilty of eye gouging, and that the Medical Staff has asessed the injuries concerning Lobbe, Albacete, Carizza, Imhoff, and Hernández.

Sharkbok

I agree mate. The Boks are particularly vulnerable to counter-rucking. Their "critical cleaners" (term that denotes the players that arrive first at the breakdown) is excellent, but once the ruck is formed, they show some technical frailties in securing possession. Francois Louw (188 cm), Willem Alberts (192 cm), and Duane Vermeulen (193 cm), are quite tall so they lack the low center of gravity that helps the smaller loose forwards get in very close angles while remaining firmly on their feet. 

I believe the Boks should focus more on securing the space between the ball and the first rucker. Also maybe implement a structure of rucking pods, players that arrive almost simutaneously to the breakdown, and making use of sharp decision making, combine their moves to secure the ball completely. This sounds overly elaborate but many NZ teams spend plenty of time training this. It's called LQB (Lightning-Quick-Ball). Wayne Smith developed a series of drills that really help players embrace this structure and turn it into second nature.

This is something that CAN be adjusted in time. I really hope the Boks manage to sharpen up their breakdown executions, as they have some really dangerous players capable of turning attacks into demolitions.

As for the ball carriers issue, I think it's down to how they are used. If you see that the scrum half is going to pass to a running forward, you have time to prepare yourself. Run forward, and go low. Or if you are an assist tackler, get ready to contest the ball. However, if the attackers show you a variety of options, it's hard to anticipate the move. You'll get flat footed, losing defensive momentum, and quite often you'll have to go high due to lack of time or to prevent the offload.

 EDIT: YAY! I'm in! :)

 Awesome stuff Ole Cruz. Clean out McCaw one time would ya? he's a bit of a poacher in case it hadn't come up in your video sessions - just a little tip :)