A look through the stats, we see a dominant showing on attack. Then we see 20 turnovers conceded to England's 12. What happened? It wasn't in the set pieces. Nor the breakdown, where they won all but 2. Is New Zealand's attack losing it's cutting edge. Errors abound, a lack of composure? What does this all mean for 2019?
...a comeback win from 15 nill down in the wet in front of 80,000 screaming England fans at Twickenham...does'nt get much better than that..
the English be like...
AO is a nut case - first of all it was a very difficult match played in horrendous conditions.
There is a case not to play SBW anymore - I think Crotty has also gone off the boil. Why not play Laumape at 12? And the sooner they forget ablout playing MCkensie at full back the better it would be for the AB's.
However, the team is s till the strongest one in the world.
Mike
Aug isn't losing his mind at all.
Even prior to yesterday's game, the same question could be asked.
The Lions managed at draw against NZ. My feeling is that NZ should have won and the SBW red was series changing. I also thought the red was the wrong call. Regardless the series ended in a draw. As the Kiwis always remind us, they should have done enough to win despite a bad call or two.
Then the Boks beat the ABs at home and threw away the return fixture. It could quite easily have been two zero this year to the Boks...and they aren't nearly the complete package yet. By the same token, the ABs could have won the year two to zero against the Boks.
Yesterday's game was against against a depleted English side that SA should have easily beaten also. SA lost the game rather England winning it...and yesterday the ABs struggled like hell against them.
And there it is. It's clear from the last 18 months of AB rugby that they aren't as completely dominant as they have been. So while they are still good, the trajectory isn't a upward one. Not for now anyway. Granted they're rebuilding to some degree and need to build some more since there are a few guys that look past it for them.
Similar to the end of the great OZ cricket era, the ABs still have a winning habit and it's covering a few cracks for now.
It would be silly to suggest that this side is as is as good as it was 2, 3, 4 or 5 years ago. It's clearly not.
The question is where this transitional period will leave them?
The question posed by the thread title is a valid one and worth discussing.
Read is soon to retire, SBW looks almost done, Crotty's taken a lot of head knocks and Ben Smith is soon done.
Smith is the wrong side of 30 and looks very slow already, so is Whitelock.
All of this points to a continued period of building. If results continue as they have been then their confidence will dip further as well. And results will dip further too.
If had to guess, I'd say the soonest we'll see the ABs back to their prior dominance will be in four years. That is, if they manage to successfully replace the big names that will exit over the next 18 months.
The WC will be a pretty random affair and my feeling is that anyone could win it.
The RC for the next four years will be a lot more interesting, which is good news for rugby.
We forget, the level of rugby they have been playing for the last decade is possibly the best any team has ever managed. To assume that it will continue indefinitely is obviously not realistic.
It also takes a lot of self-control to exit a period like that without a sense of entitlement by players, media and fans. And that is the breeding ground for massive confidence issues.
No doubt, people a lot smarter than I have already considered all of this and plans will be in place.
Regardless, it's an interesting sporting and psychological subplot that will unravel in the years to come.
The Irish game that is to come is probably the most interesting test this year in terms of an insight into where the Abs are right now.
Edit: any Kiwis fancy removing your patriot hat for a moment and giving us your honest assessment IRT the above?
...plump my assessment is you got stoned and started typing on yr keyboard again...
Heh I dont think NZ has lost their edge. Quite the contrary. I just simply think rest of the world has caught up. At the 2015 RWC. NZ were so ahead of the chasing pack. They could of gone another 5 weeks and won it again. With Daylight being 2nd. They lost a ton of experience when some stalwarts retired. Past 3 years has been a transitional periord. Still results have been just as good. ABS still have an edge over the chasing pack though. Their win showed the ne generation of ABS are well placed to go 3 peat. Not as dominant as they were. But I do beleive they maybe holding some cards up their sleave. I think some changes are needed though. SBW is overcooked for me. He can still do brilliant things at times. But he is injury prone. And getting on. Too me Goodhue has sown up the 13 jersey. I thought BB had his best game as a ten in an all black jersey. Hes sown up the 10 Jersey. For me RW and inside cntr is up for grabs. Crotty or ALB. And Naholo or ordie. Personally;
15. B Smith 14. J Barrett 13. J Goodhue 12. R Crotty 11. R Ioane 10. B Barrett 9. TJ Peranara 8. K Read 7. S Cane 6. L Squire 5. B Retalluck 4. S Whitelock 3. O Franks 2. D Coles 1. J Moody
16. O Tungafasi 17. N Laulala 18. C Taylor 19. S Barrett 20. A Savea 21. V Fifita/S Frizell 2. A Smith 23. D Mckenzie
NZ have shifted their emphasis to building for the RWC and by next year will be at their peak .
This nonsense about the ABs waning or losing their edge is trtted out whenever the ABs lose or have a tight game.
As 3kue says a lot of caps went post 2015 ,see how any other team does losing 800+caps.Bet they wont have a 90% win record.
This is not something I've ever said before. It has been on my mind as early as 2015, where they did show signs of decline. Credit to them, they grew as the World Cup progressed, but they didn't look quite so good before it. Plum nailed the points well.
The issue of opposition quality is pertinent. The All Blacks have had their two greatest opponents in very poor shape the past couple of years. Australia really haven't been a force for almost the entirety of the past six years. Since the Deans era, they haven't felt quite like Australia. One of the reasons why I regard the 2005 to 2007 All Blacks so highly: They were very successful against significantly more dangerous Wallaby and Springbok sides. The Boks and the NH sides now are catching up. However, analysing the All Black game, its not as complete as it once was. Where is the breakdown supremacy, the aerial domination, the superior kicking game, the well rounded attack? Perhaps Barrett has taken them too far to an extreme? Either way, they just aren't clicking quite right.
yeah, the AB are losing their edge,... or the other teams are catching them up,... which end up in the same result,... and it's a very good thing for the next WC,... but not such good for the AB fans
NZ still has the best pool of players,... by far,... its depth in first line players (both forwards and backs) is second to none,... and NZ has the best coaches and management teams,... their number of international level coaches is also second to none,...
All this translated into dominating the Super Rugby competition as never before,... the best 4 teams this year in the regular season have been kiwis,... but translating this domination into the test arena this year has been a failure,....
Hansen and co. at the beginning of the season toutted and toutted that this year the AB were going to find the solution against the problematic rushing defense and step up to a new level on attack,... didn't happen,... quite the contrary,... they are unable to translate the SR form to the test level, they are unable to find a tactical or strategic solution to the rushing defense and they are unable to select the best players to face this defense,...
yesterday the conditions were atrocious,... but were the same for both teams,... even though, it's true, that it's easier to play in this conditions when your aim is to stop the other team,... anyway, some of the things I saw
- Liam Squire and Ardie Savea were anonimous and barely contributed to the team,... Squire's anonimity is not the first,... he's been absent of the game for some matches now,... and this is a problem for the AB come the WC,... there's no established blindside,... and Fifita is not the answer at test level while I see Frizell still too green in some aspects of his game,... Scott Barrett was an improvement yesterday but he's mainly a lock,... Taufua has been so unlucky with the timing of his various minor injuries these last 2 years,...
Savea was ineffective,... as he has been so many times at test level,... his commitment and workrate are impeccable,... nothing wrong with them,.. but an AB openside has to impose himself in the breakdowns and tacklings,... yesterday's conditions showed this off,... he was outplayed by Underhill,.... these were the conditions to play a warrior of the breakdowns and tacklings like Matt Todd (or like Sam Cane untill 2 years ago)
- Perenara is in better form than Smith
- Beauden Barrett had a good game,... one of the best I saw from him at test level in terms of management of the team, decision making, tactical kicking,... but Mo'unga manage and kicks better,... and would be a better asset in those weather conditions
- SBW,... it's so evident his lack of form that I'm not going to repeat what i've been saying for months,... he shouldn't be in the squad,... like Jordie Barrett, he should have been playing NPC untill gaining his form,...
- DMac struggles at test level and even more under pressure,... for each thing he did correctly yesterday he did 2 wrong,... he was caught out of position defensively,... like in the first English try,... he kicked atrociously,... took the wrong options,... and lost the ball 5 times,... but he gets a try in a set piece and everybody is singing his praises
the best backline against the Irish by far would be:
9. TJ Perenara 10. R. Mo'unga
12. R. Crotty 13. J. Goodhue
11. R´. Ioane 14. B. Smith 15. B. Barrett
21. A. Smith 22. ALB 23. W. Naholo
AO
I think that NZ has developed problems since 2015. They could not adequately replace players like McCaw and Carter and some of their players are getting older and are often injured.
Basically they still have very good players in the rugby set-up, but they also have to do some housecleaning before the WC,
It is very hard to discuss this topic with our NZ members. I think they are worried about the situation themselves and one always wish for their part that the obvious problems needs to be addressed. Take for instance in the test yesterday as well as the tests against SA - the ability of the backline to score tries seems to have gone backwards, It is not a match on what they did in the 2015 WC.
Finally a post I can agree on. Well said Mike.
Yeah that 90 % win record is just terrible innit ?
Wishful thinking like this always comes along then the ABs re assess ,adjust ,then move it up a notch .
Im sure Hansen knows more about coaching than anyone here or any where else for that so I am happy with him ,the only blemish being playing guys out of position when Ireland had their maiden win.
There he goes again. Off on his sarcastic defensive patriot wagon while the rest try to have a reasonable discussion.
Who plum ?Are we to talk only on your terms ?
Stick to critiqeing your own if you dont like it .Or do you yhink you know more than the ABs coach ?
Your opinion counts for as little as anyone elses and matters about as much .
Like I said wishful thinking by those hoping to see the ABs fail ,its as common as dogfuck.
I notice you chose to ignore wee Mr Brycys trenchant obsevation ?
So tell me did you go into great detail about Farrells delberate and dirty tackle ? You know like how you labelled Barrett a dirty player over a missed tackle that let in a try as opposed to Farrells deliberate no arms tackle which cost you the game ?
I take any praise you may have for the ABs with a huge grain of salt as you seem to use it as camouflage for your sly little digs .
Wardad
There seems to be some minor problems in the AB team - where after 2015 there have been -
* a number of retirements of top players; and
* a decrease I effectiveness of some players intending to retire from international rugby and going to play NH club rugby - eg Read, Crotty, Ben Smith and Coles to name a few.
Some of those players performance is way below what it used to be in 2015 and staying on purely to play in the WC could have problems of its own.
I am one of the people that believes that there are players available to replace under-performers - but transition when players have to be replaced are not always smooth. Take for instance the critical flyhalf position after Carter's departure. The first choice replacement initially was Cruden, the followed by Barrett and now by support for Mo'unga. All three are obviously not on par with what Carter brought to the game.
The same situation developed in the center combination - where the issue si bedeviled by injury-prone players like Crotty and SBW. To find a replacement combination for Nonu and Smith has not been completed as yet and to my mind the only one where there are certainty about is Goodhue coming through strongly and Luamape being the other answer.
Fact is that with respect much the same can be said about the replacement of McCaw. Cane is the obvious replacement, but definitely not an all-round replacement. Some favour Todd and Ardie Savea ahead of Cane, but fact is that none of the three players are near to the level set down by McCaw.
I believe Hansen is in the experimental stage - where he is still making up his mind about actual replacements. The talent is available, but the transition may cause some hiccups. Those hiccups cause problems even when winning like happened on Saturday against England and in the RC Pretoria test and losing like happened in the Wellington test.
I believe replacements are available - but not without some "hiccups" and I do not share the feeling expressed by some that the situation is problematic and have permanent consequences. NZ is still the top-rated team in World Rugby and their nearest rival (Ireland) has developing problems themselves. There victory on Saturday against Argentina was not all that convincing either.
It is an interesting topic to discuss = but I think some members see more problems than there actually are.
Mike
There have already been a few hiccups where they've lost games that they shouldnt have.
BB will also be tested in the years to come as the pack transitions to younger players, some of the dominance will slip.
Similar to Jantjies that plays well behind an advancing pack.
There are already signs that the ABs have issues when they aren't controlling proceedings and BB is being singled out as being one of the main culprits. Add that to the revelation that they struggle against a rush defense and it's hard to imagine them reclaiming their previous status any time soon.
It will be interesting to see if they manage to get back to where they were a few years ago. The odds are that they won't. Replacing great teams is not something to be taken for granted.
Will be watching Saturday's game with great interest.
Rooi, I agree.
It's just that they are having to replace some of the best players they've ever had.
And it'll be interesting to see how that transition goes.
It will give a good insight into just how valuable, not if it's valuable, but HOW valuable, their systems are.
If your sentiments are correct then there should be no dip .
I think you nailed it there Rooie.
Even the so called "confetti caps " would walk into most teams.
Rooi
I keep making the coparisson to the great Oz cricket team of the 90's &2000's because i believe there are some valid similarities there.
At the height of their dominance, nobody would ever have guessed that once Waugh, Gilchrist, Ponting, McGrath, Warne, Hayden and some other guys had left the team, SA would beat them in their own back yard with a recored breaking final innings run chase, and that's while some of their top guys were still in the side. Not sure how long it was, but their home winstreak in ODI series was also some kind of record as well. That team also still holds the record for the most consecutive and total WC wins.
At the height of that period, despite it being a different sport, there was very similar talk about the OZ systems from grass roots all the way through the pro leagues. Not only that but their mentality and the way they approached the game with the right mix of unorthadox and hard nose graft was also vaunted as being "in their blood" and vital to their success. It was a recipe for continuous and ever lasting success. Australia would always have the best team in the world.
We know what has happened since that era. They've lost at home to us twice, England and a few others in both tests and ODIs. While Oz will always be a good team, it will take that same system plus the right mix of players & coaching with the added bonus of some all time greats before they're as dominant again. Ask the West Indies. they'll tell you all about eras.
I see the AB team of the last ten years in a similar light. They every bit as good as that OZ team was, despite not quite matching their record just yet. They have just as many best ever national players in their side as well. My belief is that it will be similarly difficult to replace those players.
Wardad sees this opinion as some kind of insult. Basically, unless you are prepared to declare that NZ will remain the distant best team in the world until the end of time, then youre insulting his nation and he reserves the right to ignore your opinion and attack you.
Not at any point in the history of any sport or any team has one team remianed perpetually and indefinitely dominant. It's simply not possible. If the ABs do it, it'll literally be a historic first. Clearly we are to believe that they'll do something never before done, or face being labelled haters.
In fact, what normally happens is that an extended period of high is generally followed by a lower than average period...sometimes longer, sometimes shorter. Both Australia(Cricket) and Spain(Football), the two most dominant other sports teams of recent times had this happen to them. Remember Spain's last world Cup? It's seems to be a teams sport phenomenon and doesnt hold so true in sports like golf, tennis etc. Possibly being down to the amount of people and accompanying variables involved.
Again, what i am interested in, is watching them make the transition from this last crop of Richie's crew to a new bunch and seeing how they get on and where they end up once settled.
It's not hysteria. It's not wishful thinking. It's not an roundabout insult. It's just a point of interest that's worthwhile speculating about a year out from the WC. That's all.
OH WD, please go and find the insult, sly remark or any other slight on you or your nation above.
Failing that, please expalin why you have gone back on your word and decided to try and attack me for my objective and non-confrontational opinion about a rugby subject???
Rememebr your "You leave me alone and i'll leave you alone?" bollocks? I've kept my end of the bargain...have you?
In fact, look through any post i've made about the ABs since. You'll find that their is little to nothing negative, and a ton of positive. But it's just not enough for you huh?
Grow up and stop being such an insecure brat.
Rooinek
In essence I agree with you about NZ rugby and said much the same thing as you mentioned. However, there may be some truth in other countries becoming more competitive as well. In that group falls SA which side is showing improvement after 6 years of chaotic mismanagement under Meyer and Coetzee.
Meyer's Boks were largely competitive with New Zealand. The chaos erupted after his departure. Something I predicted, something many said wouldn't happen, as all would be wonderful once Meyer was gone. We still aren't quite there yet.
New Zealand having been losing a golden generation of players. Will they ever have another McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Aaron Smith et al? They'll continue to be a force, but I see a change in the balance of power between the hemispheres. Rugby is changing once again. This team reminds me of the 2003 WC side. High end attack, but not invincible.
Rooi
So a question then.
How long do think the present level of the ABs will remain and/ or get better?
Note I say present. It's clear they're not as good as they were two years ago, which was then also not as good as it was two years prior to that.
Are you suggesting that this present state is the worst they're ever likely to be?
Points difference between them and some teams seems to be less this year, mostly due to experimentation for the old/new guard.
Many good points Rooi!
The Springboks also experienced long spells of dominance over most of test nations. That time is now well and truly over...though for uniquely South African reasons. But not entirely due to those reasons.
The rest of the world has caught up to a large degree. They've done so during a time when the All Blacks have been more dominant than ever. World Cup wins and record consecutive test wins etc.
The AB performances this year have not been as complete as what we've become used to seeing. The two games against us as well as the English game were very close. The Irish game will be just as close, unless the ABs play significantly better than their present form suggests they will.
Then next year is a short year, and after the WC more of their core will retire.
Their 2018 performance, the retiring of yet more players and the fact that their new team will be competing against improved tests nations is what makes it interesting.
While the rest of the world was improving the ABs had their most most dominant team ever. In a sense, they could gloss over the incremental progress other teams where making. They were just so far ahead of them. They'll have to settle slightly above where most of us think the need to if they're to maintain the dominance that you appear certain of.
I'm not saying that they'll no longer be a top or even the best team, just that for a few years to come there'll be fewer forgone conclusions.
