Ex Supersport
Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer might have confused some people when he said earlier in the week that it is tough playing two tests against the same opponents, but there is good reason for him saying that.
When Wales held a press conference to name their team soon after arriving in Nelspruit on Thursday afternoon, they kept to the same theme that they have followed since the final whistle sounded on their 38-16 defeat in the first test in Durban last week.
Skipper Alun Wyn-Jones and coach Warren Gatland both said it, so perhaps we should paraphrase their line on what happened at Growthpoint Kings Park into one quote: “We were caught cold”.
The captain said that his men didn’t know what had hit them with the combination of pace and physicality the Boks brought to their game in the first 20 minutes.
Gatland reminded everyone that history shows that when the Boks start strongly, they normally win well. He talks from experience. It has been the case when he has clashed with the Boks in the past in his different guises as Wales and Ireland coach and as assistant coach of the British and Irish Lions in 2009.
Closer scrutiny shows though that the Boks don’t always have to start well to win.
In 2010 they were well behind in a game in Cardiff and then came back to claim victory. The Boks also looked out of it in the first part of the second test against the Lions at Loftus in 2009. Yet they came back at the death to clinch the series with a long-range Morne Steyn penalty.
What Wales will require then at Mbombela Stadium on Saturday is a sustained 80 minute performance. Their promise to start well this week factors out the memory of what happened last week – they actually did go well in the early stages, if you can refer to the opening four minutes as any kind of stage in the game. They were the first on the board through a Dan Biggar drop-goal, and it followed a pretty commanding passage of play.
That though has tended to be the problem with Wales against the Boks, and indeed any southern hemisphere opposition down the years. They have hit their opponents hard for periods of a game. History however reflects just one win apiece against the Boks and All Blacks in all of the long history of clashes between the teams. It also shows that they have invariably not had the conditioning or the mental bottle to sustain it.
These days the conditioning penny appears to have dropped just about everywhere rugby is played, and there shouldn’t be too many question marks over the Welsh fitness. So perhaps the question that Meyer refused to answer during the week should be answered: Yes, Wales probably do have a mental block against the South Africans.
They tend to threaten only as long as it takes the Boks to get their intimidating physical game together, and then they usually disappear.(Intimidating dispite palying a tight 4)
But where Meyer is right is that this month presents a rare opportunity for Wales in that they get a chance to learn from their mistakes and apply what they have learned. And Gatland wasn’t too wrong when he suggested in Nelspruit on Thursday that there isn’t really that much to fix. The chasm between the teams might also not be as wide as the Durban scoreline suggested.(AGREED)
“We were blown away in the first half but we conceded 14 points when we had a player yellow carded (PLEASE NOTE THIS FACT - THE SCORELINE FLATTERED US). So we know that there is not too much that needs to be fixed,” said Gatland.
Indeed, and that is a fact, but then there have been a lot of “if only” laments from Wales down the years. What they need to do is get over the line at some stage or the claims of heroic defeat start to come across as a bit repetitive and shallow.
What both Meyer and Gatland would have noted though is that Wales did look a lot more steady in the second half.
The two changes the Welsh made to the starting team also sent out a twin message: Firstly, they’re looking for more of a physical presence in the form of Josh Turnbull on the flank. Secondly, Gatland must be genuine when he says there isn’t too much to change or he would have been more wholesale with his team changes.
The Boks have a history of not being able to completely back up when they do well in an opening test of a series, the England series here in 2012 was a case in point. So perhaps there is a tendency to get complacent when the first test of a sequence goes well for them. Last year Scotland gave the Boks a fright here in the first half following an easy win for the South Africans over Italy the previous week.
Meyer used the examples of the Stormers’ recent shock win over the Sharks in Durban and Australia’s narrow win last week over France after they had dominated those opponents the week before as proof that you have to be switched on in every game you play at this level.
He is right in saying that, and as this is the occasion of Victor Matfield’s record breaking game for the Boks, we should expect them to be up for it. And if they are, it is hard to see Wales turning around what happened last week to change the result. It should be closer, but the Boks should win with a bit to spare.
They will know though that this being the second match of a series, with their opponents being forewarned and therefore forearmed, they will need to be even better than they were last week to make sure they retain their dominance.
FAIR COMMENT. THIS COULD BE MUCH TOUGHER.
TEAMS
SOUTH AFRICA: Willie le Roux, Cornal Hendricks, JP Pietersen, Jan Serfontein, Bryan Habana, Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez, Duane Vermeulen, Willem Alberts, Francois Louw, Victor Matfield (captain), Flip van der Merwe, Jannie du Plessis, Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: Schalk Brits, Gurthro Steenkamp, Coenie Oosthuizen, Lood de Jager, Schalk Burger, Ruan Pienaar, Wynand Olivier, Lwazi Mvovo.
WALES: Liam Williams, Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar, Mike Philips, Taulupe Faletau, Josh Turnbull, Dan Lydiate, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn-Jones (captain), Samson Lee, Ken Owens, Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: Matthew Rees, Paul James, Aaron Jarvis, Jake Ball, Dan Baker, Gareth Davies, James Hook, Matthew Morgan.
Referee: Steve Walsh.
Kick-off: 3pm
Prediction: Boks to win well again.
