Boks to get knock out in WC 2019 Quarter Finals

So, I'm just looking ahead to 2019 and the boks possible fixtures going through the knock out stages. 

Given that the boks poor record this year, yes 50% is poor. A better bok team would have beaten the likes of Wales and England. 

Scenario 1: Boks end up runners up

The boks has the all important game against NZ which we know they can beat, but the All Blacks probably would have sorted themselves out by then. It is not every day that they lose 2 games in a single year. 

As runners up of Pool B, the boks will probably Face the winner of pool A. Which is Ireland. 

This means Rassie will have to try and out smart the 2nd best team in the world who have so far shown how difficult they are to beat. 

Scotland have beaten Ireland recently and could possible do it again, but very unlikely

Knocked out by Ireland

Scenario 2. Boks win their Pool and beat NZ

Likely opponents would b e between Australia or Wales. I would like to think that Wales would be runners up considering history but it could very well be Australia. So I'm going to go with Aus our runner up team. 

Unfortunately our history against Australia in WC has been very poor. The last time we beat them was back in 1995 and they have been the bain of our lives ever since. 99 Larkham drop goal, 2013 Miraculous poor reffing and blown opportunities. 

For me personally, if the boks want to have a chance of winning the WC they will simply have to beat the AB. 

But now that they have 4 test left against Australia / NZ and Arg. It will be hard press to see how they can prepare to beat them in a WC. 

Stranger things has happened but I would put any money on the boks of getting passed the quarter finals.

We'll see who are the teams to beat. WCs often surprise us. How often have the favourites delivered? Not often. 

I believe the Boks need to sort their personnel out and their tactics. It'll be won or lost by the work off the field in my opinion. The potential is there for Rassie's Boks to be very competitive. Does he have it in him to lead the team that far? We'll just have to wait and see. 

Like 2011?   One has to see what happened in the pool stages before one can make a deduction like you did.   

In 2011 the Springboks nearly lost to Samoa and Wales and scraped through to the quarters - where they lost.

If the 2019 team performs better than the 2011 Springboks did in the pools stages and beat the lower ranked teams convincingly - and what happened in Pool D as to their opponent - only then will it  allow for a realistic assessment.   

I think at present it is only guess work - but it seems as if a repeat of the Japan disaster in the 2015 WC is unlikely in 2019.  

I'm factoring the chances of the boks beating the following  teams

All Blacks - 1/10 

Ireland - 3/10

Wales 4/10

Australie 5/10

We have not consistently dominated any of these teams over the last 5 years. 

In previous world cup cycles we would have had great results against them and the confidence to get past them. 

If Rassie wants to have his squad ready, I would almost say he need to try and convince the Franchises not to play the core 22 boks in away games. So don't let them travel to Japan, Arg, Australia or NZ. I would even go as far as keeping 15 of my best players at home during the championship and only play in local matches. 

At least that would give him 2 test matches to test squad depth 

We've got Super Rugby and a few tests to build confidence and hopefully get a few solutions for a few glaring problems. Our back row and our midfield. 

We need a few heroes stepping forward, or we're toast.

Even if we did beat the AB what is our chances of beating either Wales or Australia. 

I'm just going based on this year performance and the fact that Rassie only has 4 test left. 

There are talks that he might be based at the bools. 

But if you look at how long the coaches for these teams have been at the helm when the WC rolls in

Hansen 8 years +  4 years assistant coach under Graham Henry

Gatland 12 years + Lions

Cheika 6 Years

Joe Schmidt 6 Years

Rassie 1.5 years

Samoa was a powerful team in 2011. They were hamstrung by the usual one sided IRB schedule and had a few days to recover after a brutal Bok test. A test Smit said was the most physical of his career. The Samoans obliterated Australia before the World Cup.

Miracles happen...it did in 95 and 07...and in 2011 for NZ...we just need to prepare well and play what's in front of us. RWC's are full of upsets...especially in Japan...neutral ground. Ireland and Wales...and England struggle to beat us in South Africa...and the Bokke will be well prepared in Japan. We will be competitive...trust Rassie and trust the plan.

Sure there are variables - but I do not think we will have real problems with Australia or even Wales.   

I think the problems to be sorted are - 

*   getting the locks to function better in especially aspects such as Tight 5 play and especially also rolling mauls that went missing in tests this year, as well as weak defense against opposition mauls;

*    getting in place a functioning loose forward combinations; and 

*    solving the mid-field problem.

If those deficiencies can be addressed I think the Springboks have a good chance to beat even all the teams listed by you.

We have discussed those problems endlessly on site - and we will see whether the upcoming Super Rugby season  does not open our eyes to which players can help to solve some of the problems.

I am a bit worried about your suggestion not to have adequate preparations and functioning of combinations by having inadequate test level experience.   

As far as I can make out the following tests will be played before the WC:-

*   The All Blacks away -  RC

*    Australia at home      - RC

*    Argentina away         - RC

*    Argentina at home     - preparatory game

*    Japan away                 - preparatory game

I am afraid that would leave very little scope for preparation of potential new combinations - especially iro the loosies and the centers.   Remember the Japan fiasco in 2015 where the same problem raised its ugly head.  

Sure there are variables - but I do not think we will have real problems with Australia or even Wales.   

I think the problems to be sorted are - 

*   getting the locks to function better in especially aspects such as Tight 5 play and especially also rolling mauls that went missing in tests this year, as well as weak defense against opposition mauls;

*    getting in place a functioning loose forward combinations; and 

*    solving the mid-field problem.

If those deficiencies can be addressed I think the Springboks have a good chance to beat even all the teams listed by you.

We have discussed those problems endlessly on site - and we will see whether the upcoming Super Rugby season  does not open our eyes to which players can help to solve some of the problems.

I am a bit worried about your suggestion not to have adequate preparations and functioning of combinations by having inadequate test level experience.   

As far as I can make out the following tests will be played before the WC:-

*   The All Blacks away -  RC

*    Australia at home      - RC

*    Argentina away         - RC

*    Argentina at home     - preparatory game

*    Japan away                 - preparatory game

I am afraid that would leave very little scope for preparation of potential new combinations - especially iro the loosies and the centers.   Remember the Japan fiasco in 2015 where the same problem raised its ugly head.  

Preparation isn't just playing games, it's work on the training field and in game planning. You can learn alot from one game. Four games before the WC is enough to get the players sharpened and match fit. 

In 2011, the Boks were one of the top teams. If we did not buy into the "ball in hand" hype, we should have easily beaten Aus...despite Brycie. 

The home unions are a whole different, less problematic kettle of fish away from Europe ...NZ and Ire will be the hurdles....Wild card Scotty .

Draad

With respect there really was np ball in hand game in 2011.   The Springboks suffered against Wales and Samoa and lost the game against Australia despite massive ball protection stats compared to th opposition.  

They could not use the ball possession they have at all and was poor in all three games mentioned.  I have never seen the equal in messing u such a possession superiority like the 2011 team did.     

AO

Your understanding about what is written on site is near to what your knowledge of rugby is.   ZERO

I was worried about a comment KC that key players not participate in the tests and pointed out that it may effect combination play.

All know that games are required to sharpen up implementation - but then do you know what the word implementation means?   A coach can coach players till they they knows everything - but is does not help if in games it falls flat.   That is why game time is as important as practicing is.     

Maaik, go check the stats of the Bryce Lawrence match. We would have won if we kicked a bit more. For me it was clear that the Boks wanted to win by running it. It flo pped big time. One drop goal from Morne would have won it for us, but there wasn't even an attempt...it was so obvious.

Maaik, the fact that they tried the ball in hand approach back then, does not mean that they did it well...and Rassie was the coach, all but in name, back then too.

Don't forget that Rassie was part of the WC  2011 bok coaching team that crashed out. 

If you look at how teams are starting to play, none of them are trying to throw it around. All starting to play percentage rugby. 

The fact that even Bauden Barrett landed a drop goal the other day is definitely a sign that it will not be a free flowing attacking minded world cup. 

Wales, Ireland and NZ has got incredible defences. Ireland kept NZ try less, but I wouldn't read to much into that game because you could clearly see that they were sticking to a certain type of game plan and didn't want to give to much away. 

There might be hope for the boks, I do feel a bit more confident than if it had to Coetzee, then I would say we wouldn't even get out of the pool because we are facing Italy. 

No need to score tries or even attack necessary at all.  Back to the non-existent game plan of Meyer.

Teams are more structured than ever before. The real concern is that we are the only top 10 nation who cannot put significant attacking phases together. I've broken down the distribution chain for all this years games, and it's alarming. This is what Rassie needs to correct. We are very unbalanced, and many of his decisions are exacerbated the problem as the season has progressed. This is going to be the make or break of our campaign. 

We have tests where our forwards are grinding the opposition to dust, and we still can't break them! We can pin them in their half for an entire half of rugby, have quality front foot ball with the best attacking field positions and we'll lead by a coupe of points, sometimes with a deficit. We are the only top 10 nation this impotent. The rest of our game is fine, this is what has to changed.

Looking at the stats, defence is not as dominant as it was in the recent past. In fact, this cycle, the SH sides haven't been very efficient at all. The games are more open as stats for all categories have increase markedly, but there is a battle to do this attacking from the right areas of the field. Attacking structures have changed quite a bit. As always, the most well rounded teams will be the real threats at the WC.

Rassie would do well to adopt a more fluid model, like Meyer's. Quicker developing attacking movements, less rigid adherence to thoughtless, telegraphed patterns.

Meyers so-called flopped model which you tried to write into existence?

The model which netted a higher percentage of RC tries and kept the Boks #2 for most of his 4 year reign. Yes, that model.

How's the 2004 Bulle ball working for you? What? Number 5 you say? 50% record you say? What a pity. What's this? It's all Faf's fault? Tisk tisk. 

Just compare the number of passes made by the scrummies to players other than the less than 25%  passed to the flyhalf in the WC 2015 and the picture is clear.   

Meyer did not allow for 15 man-rugby and he said so himself.  The false wrote-up you gave about the Meyer Model can at best be regarded as fake news.