Breakdown key in Cardiff clash (Rugby 365)

Springbok flank Francois Louw is welcoming the challenge of going head-to-head with Wales captain Sam Warburton in the all-important battle of the breakdown in Cardiff on Saturday.

The Springboks kick-off their end-of-year tour against the Six Nations champions this weekend and know full well the match could come down to who bosses the breakdown.

Louw and Warburton are two of the world’s elite openside flanks who share the ability to not only play towards the ball and maintain a high workrate, but also provide go-forward with ball in hand.

Their proficiency to turn over possession and slow ball down at the tackle, however, will take centre stage at the Millennium Stadium, and in this regard, Bath-based Louw’s understanding of northern hemisphere referees’ interpretation of the breakdown laws should stand the Springboks in good stead. 

Louw, though, played down his experience of playing in Europe.

"I don't know if it has given me an advantage, it has definitely been a massive learning curve for me. I have really enjoyed my rugby here [in Europe], I have learned a lot and grown as a player,” said Louw on Tuesday.

"I wouldn't say it [the breakdown] requires different skills [than in the southern hemisphere]; as we have seen in the past and at the end of last year, northern hemisphere referees like to allow the breakdown to develop and allow more of a contest there.

"I think it is a big point in northern hemisphere rugby, especially in the Premiership. Guys do compete there, they look to counter-ruck and challenge the opposition by slowing their ball down.”

Louw said the Springboks are wary of Warburton’s breakdown prowess and will aim to neutralise the young Welsh skipper.  

"He is a great player, attacks the ball well and slows opposition ball down nicely, definitely a player that we are going to have to watch. He can be very effective for Wales and can be a key player for them,” said Louw.

The Springboks are also bound to be boosted by the knowledge of Scottish breakdown specialist, Richie Gray, who Louw believes has been worth his weight in gold this season.

"Richie has been great for us, a great addition to the coaching set-up, bringing in his philosophies in and around the breakdown,” he said.  

“Being a Scot - a northern hemisphere guy - he is obviously attuned to the way they play over here so it has been great having him bringing a different perspective into that area.

"The guys have really caught on to him and believe in his views and the things he is saying. He has come up with some great drills and really helped the guys develop their skills at the breakdown.

"The breakdown is always a massive element for us. If you have a good platform to attack from it is only going to benefit you as a side so it is always an emphasis for us and it is going to be challenging this weekend.

"I think we are doing really well and making the right decisions, especially on defence, when to go in and when not to. On attack, you want to get in there early to prevent the opposition slowing your ball down.

"It was an emphasis for us in the Rugby Championship and I think the guys executed it well. There is still a little work to be done and I think we are going to have to show that even more over the next few games.”

Louw said he’s had little difficulty joining up with the Springbok squad from Europe in recent seasons and felt South African-based players face a similar challenge.     

"I think everyone has to deal with it, the other guys went back to the Currie Cup and they are also back with the Springboks again. I think you have to disassociate yourself with the two groups but it has been quite easy, this a fantastic environment, really easy to slot back in,” he said.

Louw added that the British and Irish Lions-laden Welsh will want to make a statement on Saturday.

"I think they are a very good team, they made up the backbone of the British and Irish Lions side. I think we are going to see a lot of passion because, coming off the Six Nations and doing very well there, they are going to want to prove a point,

Just_win

That is a very questionable statement - since I rate a number of opensiders higher than the two mentioned players.   Louw is good - but he has a speed deficiency.   What would have been helped along is if the other two loosies could assist in ball recovery - but despite their "strong man" image and the ball carrying capacity of Vermeulen, there is one thing they have in common and that is that as a combination our back row is incapable of  playing a real role in breakdown ball recovery.  That is stemming from speed deficiency as well as clumsiness - especially on the part of Alberts.

The other major issue is how Meyer can expect that our lock combination can meet the challenge as to line outs if the only real line jumper is Etzbeth.   Flippie is the same as our 7 and 8 - bar the fact that there are serious problems with Flippie's discipline as well.    As a line out option I would much rather have preferred an Etzebeth - Du Toit combo at lock than the projected Flip inclusion.   Both Etzebeth and Du Toit are speedier than our back row players and the two would to a degree  have off-setted the speed deficiencies  of the three back row players.  

I think a combination of our front row three would be sufficient to stem the Welsh challenge, but that is hardly enough to ensure Springbok supremacy up front.   That being said - up front the Welsh are better than the Springboks in four positions - while the Springboks are likely to be better than the Welsh in the other four positions.   That means that the situation  up front would be 50-50.

It really would then boil down to the backline  situation.   Here we have two real uncertainties - namely Fourie du Preez and Fourie.   Fourie du Preez was not good when under pressure from the All Blacks loosies at Ellis Park - and that situation would not change in this case.   Fourie on the other hand is a player with a speed deficiency as well and there is no certainty as to whether he will be able to to play at international level after an absence of two years from playing at that level.

There are two other problem cases as well, namely -

*   the issue of Morne at flyhalf - always a handicap for the Springboks at the best of times; and

*   the fact that Pietersen's form in Super 15 has been unconvincing to say the least and playing in Japan for the past three months is not going to change that for the better.

That being the case - I rate the combination of Halfpenny, North and Davies much higher than I rate their three competitors.   That being the case - we have only two backline players that can really compete with Le Roux being a competitor if he is in fact playing.   All in all the backline is loaded in favour of the Welsh.

Looking at the combinations objectively - I am afraid that the Springboks are going to come short  in both backline and forward play.  I am convinced that if Du Toit play instead of Flippie, our forwards will be better than the Welsh, but that is unlikely to happen..   In view of their backline superiority - I think the Welsh would beat the Springboks by a margin of circa 14 points.

My point is that our biggest let-downs once again will be Morne, Alberts and Flippie.    Morne at best is a gamble as he tends to cave in in respect of defence and if the pressure situation is on - his kicking at goal is erratic if the Elllis Park test (a 33% miss ratio) and the Super 15 semi-final (a 50% miss ratio) is borne in mind.   The other problem is his out of hand kicking deficiency. which could lead to too many balls being available to run at speed with in counter-attacks.   Alberts have limited abilities as a loosie and  Flippie will give Halfpenny ample opportunities  to practice his goal kicking abilities.      

Sorry - duplication