Saturday’s Super Rugby final quashed any notion that knock-out matches, and in particular finals, have to be conservative affairs.
Both the Waratahs and the Crusaders employed expansive game plans and it was refreshing to see both sides continue to chance their arm and move the ball with intent even as vital minutes wound down.
Although tactics are likely to change somewhat now the international rugby season is kicking off proper, expect both the All Blacks and Wallabies to throw the ball around as they utilise their ball-playing abilities to identify gaps and exploit weaknesses in the opposition defence.
Test rugby is often decided by how accurate a side is at executing under pressure. Part of this is decision-making and part is execution of basic skills. The combination of these traits is what set the All Blacks apart over the past few seasons. When faced with making a split set decision, the All Black players, no matter what number they wear on their back, will more often than not get the decision right.
Key to an expansive game plan is having players capable of finishing off the slightest sniff of an opportunity. This is where the outside backs, notably the back three, earn their wage. It’s a wingers bread and butter so to speak.
Both sides could genuinely argue that they possess the world’s top fullback at present, the Wallabies with Israel Folau and the All Blacks with Ben Smith. Both players possess pace, strength, and evasion skills which would rival Harry Houdini at his best.
The difference between the two is that Folau is guaranteed to wear the Wallaby 15 jersey, while there remains conjecture as to whether Smith will wear 14 or 15.
The Wallabies, though undoubtedly growing in stature on the back of their own seven-Test winning streak, are looking a little light on wingers, with Henry Speight still ineligible and the recent departure of Nick Cummins. Despite his top drawer form for the Waratahs in recent weeks at centre, it is expected Ewen McKenzie will name Adam Ashley-Cooper on the wing for the first Test. He is likely to be partnered by either Rob Horne or Joe Tomane – all capable wingers, but hardly likely to set the world on fire.
McKenzie will look over at his opposition with a hint of jealousy. They say three’s a crowd, well how about five? That is Steve Hansen’s conundrum when faced with selecting from Smith, Israel Dagg, Julian Savea, Cory Jane and Charlies Piutau for the opening Rugby Championship Test.
Hansen’s rubik’s cube was made a little easier during the recent English series, with Piutau forced out injured and Dagg following suit after the opening Test. Smith, Savea and Jane held the jerseys for the final two Tests, with Smith and Savea performing particularly strongly. After two abject performances in the opening two matches Jane came right in the third, reminding everyone of his class.
All Black selectors have shown time and time again selections are equally based on past deeds rather than form alone. So while Smith is the form fullback by the length of the straight, who will ultimately wear the number 15 jersey is anyone’s guess.
Julian Savea would have a claim at being the world’s premier wing. His mix of physical brawn and subtle skills makes him absolutely lethal, as his 23 tries from 22 Tests attests to.
On paper the All Black outside backs look to have the edge over their Wallaby counterparts, but with Folau in their ranks the Wallabies have a proven match winner.
It may come down to a single moment of individual brilliance and the ability of the other 12 players on each side getting the ball in their speedsters’ hands.
Either way, hold on to your seats, it’s going to be a cracker.
