I'd say the odds are good. As Keo points out, we usually win these home matches against the Aussies. And NZ is in Argentina, with the added strain of a lot of new experiences....and then they face a long flight, before playing the Boks.
That said, if the Boks don't win Saturday...the heat on Meyer will be dialed up. We are in the crucial weeks on the rugby season.
Goosen at 10 is a major boost as is the return of Etzebeth and Bekker.
Am pleased to see that if Frans is not fit, the talented Taute will get a start instead of the ineffectual de Jongh
We could do it
the soccer city test was always going to be the All Blacks toughest match on their 2012 calender and while im not trying to disrespect the pumas, i am so excited about next weekends game.
Boks should beat the wallabies and beat them comfortablly, IMO, home advantage a factor is a huge advantage for the inry ravaged wallabies, even more of an adavantage then perth was for the wallabies.
the positive change with goosen at the helm of the backline is hopefully not the only change, im hoping they get rid of their bafana bafana impersonations as well.
mikey said that he wouldnt be surprised to see a huge score and while it would be foolish to bet against that, IMO this game could end up any which way, a tight one, a draw, nothing is really to far fetched, but the odds must be with a Boks win.
but the Boks/All Blacks test,,,,pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeew,,, thats the one getting all rugby enthusiats licking their lips, hopefully it ends up the same way as the last one, :o)
Its definitely possible. For me the weekend is about Goosen. If this kid sails through and the Boks again up their game from last Saturday I will be delighted. Its how they paly and not only the score - a 16 point win is my prediction - I note Keo said 15. he could be a point out.
There is no doubt that the Boks can win we have the team and home advantage all we need is for a few things go our way like the bounce of the ball or a pass to stick and for HM to ensure that we get fresh legs on at the right time as SA weakness appears to be the final 20 minutes were composure, commonsense and fitness play there biggest part.
I predict the Boks by 7 or under against the Wobblies but will go down to the AB's simply because I think we just aint good enough to beat them yet (Now that will stir up a few of my countrymen) I think Beeno is right and trust me I dont agree with him often but ole beenbrain has said on many other posts that this Bok team and HM needs time and this is not the year of the Boks rather the year of growing and learning and experiencing.
Aha! The firs tsign of celluar activity re ragtad!!! But please ragtad we are at home and should have won convincingly in the last test so why on earth should we not have a good chance of winning. Please reduce ab genuflections for the sake of your overworked knees!
There is nothing at all wrong with Bok fitness as we witnessd last game against abs. If anything the abs looked much the more weary side. Boks should beat abs and Oz - the only rational assesment to make at this point in time.
Let the real expert in these matters enlighten you on this issue. The answer is yes - we can beat the two teams in successive weeks and I am sure we will.
I shall deal with the Wallabies first. They have a nightmare list of injuries and most of their key players are not available. It is definitely not the top team they brought to SA. In the meantime there is an ugly Board Room brawl in evidence - and as it apparently involve the coach - the players are definitely going to be affected. That would add to the worries of the Wallabies. My prediction remains a 20+ win for the Springboks.
I have consistently remarked that there are some problems in the All Black team - in fact even in Super 15 I mentioned those. Their best player at this stage is SBW and he is in Japan. There are way too many missed passes and balls lieing around - too many penalties because of forward play - their forwards showed in the last two tests that they really struggle against quality opposition - and they are going to have more defensive problems to deal with insofar as Goosen is concerned. On the positive side for them - bar another injury - Carter will be playing. The one issue was that Cruden in the tests he played in was rather disappointing. On the positive side - we have got rid of one of New Zealand's pillars in their latest test - and that is Greyling. Morne's inaccurate boot is also missing and the team we are fielding is to my mind stronger than the one that was fielded in Dunedin. Goosen is also a major positive factor - I believe. I think the Boks by 8+ in this case.
@beens,
Home advantage gives a few points to the home team but as you have seen many games are very close and home advantage can easily be witted away if various things go wrong. The AB's have beaten us 12 times at home so trust me they know how to win away.
What I winessed is a Bok team that didn't fully match up with the pace particuarly in the last ten minutes- but thats my opinion only.
How we play against the Wallabies will in know doubt determine where we are progressing andwhether or not we can stop an AB whitewash.
Boks by 7
Mozzie, good question!
Against the Wallabies maybe! The reasons:
1. You are playing at home with Home Crowd support
2. too many injuries in the Wallabies camp
3. the Wallabies are a Camp divided by Quade Cooper and this is a distraction which is unacceptable at this level.
Against the ABs, probably not! The reasons:
1. The ABs are now aware of what Meyer and his boys are capable of and what potential cards he has up his sleeves.
2. This will be the complete ABs Squad, not the NZ A Side the Boks played last year prior to the RWC and they will be equally determined to prove a point no matter what the Argies side show result is.
Hakwa
Did the All Blacks notplay their best team at Dunedin? They did win - but they were very lucky that they ultimately had Greyling gifting them points like nobody's business and thay Morne Steyn could not convert anything.
Morne is out and we definitely have an improved team tot ake on the All Blacks with the two 20 year olds - Etzebeth and Goosen in the team. I know Carter is a positive and Cruden did not perform as well as Carter would have - but on the whole the All Blacks will have to up their performance by 50% if they want to get anywhere near winning in SA.
In the latter regard let me add something as well - I thought that the All Blackks would win by a wide margin in Dunedin - but they effectively scraped in. There is a problem with your forwards and a bad one at that. If in a maul following a line out the All Blacks is pushed back by 30 meters with such ease as happened in Dunedin and then have to conceed a penalty to stop it - then there is really something very, very wrong.
The forward problem is further epitomized by the number of penalties given away by Reid. In SA you will not have the luxury of Morne Steyn that missed everything - neither would you have a dud like Greyling again to help you out.
The Boks by 10+ points and I remain with that forecast.
Mike, I was talking about playing the Boks in Bokland! The last time we played in SA was last year when you won! That was what my comparism aluded to!
About the game in Dunedin, imagine a story book with different final scenarios - it depends on what tunnel you chose to go down - if Morne had kicked a penalty you would have seen the ABs escalate their attack, if Greyling had not given away silly penalties, the ABs would have done something else! You cannot go back in time and change certain things and expect nothing else to change except the scoreboard! It's called a ripple effect, everything else changes! But this fact shall remain, the ABs won, END OF STORY!
About the next game, I'm not here to calm your fears :-))
hakwa
Thanks - but I do not need my fears calmed down. If Morne missed one penalty you are correct - but he ; Francois Steyn and Goosen combined kicked 2 conversions - but missed 7 other kicks at goal. That meant thatthe All Blacks gave away 8 potentially covertable penalties under pressure - really not good enough. That is aside penalties given away - which was not within kicking range. That showed they were under pressure and badly so. :)
By the way - there is another problem for the All Blacks and that is the getting of the ball in line outs. In Dunedin they managed fairly well - only losing two line-outs on their own throw-ins. With Bekker and Etzebeth back they are going to lose plenty more. In maul situations is where they give away most penalties - they are not really going to affect turn-overs and the kicking game of Morne - allowing for counter-attacks - is not going to afford you attacking plays from the back.
That is the main reason why Morne Steyn was ultimately was dropped from the team And then I have not heard whether Greyling's cheque from New Zealnd Rugby for valuable services rendered to them have been received as yet.:)
Really - I am not here to calm your fears either - so lets leave it at that. The Springboks by 10+ is on the cards - despite Carter being back.
Mike, about your lineouts here are some facts from Paul Cully:
Wallabies must balance risk and reward in Pretoria Test Date September 27, 2012Amid the heavy collisions of the All Blacks v Springboks
Test in Dunedin two weeks ago
a game of chess integral to the outcome was unfolding,
with 115-kilogram-plus pieces.
Every time the Springboks' lineout threw in
the ball, New Zealand put one of
their big men – Sam Whitelock,
Luke Romano or Brodie Retallick
– up into the air to contest
possession. From the seventh
minute to the 79th minute,
when Whitelock pinched a crucial
throw with the score at 18-11,
no South African ball was
allowed to go unchallenged.
What rich rewards the All Blacks
gained from their strategy.
They stole four throws,
another was deemed not
straight and another
was knocked on. Coaches would
sell their first born for six turnovers
from a single component of the
game. And what food for
thought it must have given the
Wallabies' strategists as they
plan for Pretoria, because
the incentive to cut off
the Springboks' oxygen is
even greater.
Young No.10 Johan
Goosen will use clean ball, if he gets it.
The good news must come first.
Victor Matfield has cut a
rather incongruous figure on
television screens this year,
in a nice suit and engaged
in sideline commentary duties
when his every cell must be
yelling at him to cross the
chalk and start dropping his shoulder into opponents.
AdvertisementPlainly, you cannot lose a
legend and hope to carry on
unaffected. And what South
Africa have lost in his technical
expertise at lineout time cannot be
replaced by sheer bulk – even when
Andries Bekker came on against
the All Blacks he suffered the
indignity of having the ball
tipped away from his fingertips.
No South African set-piece is
ever weak but Matfield's
retirement has introduced
a degree of vulnerability
that hasn't been there for years.
Funny that about Greyling's cheque, the amount equalled the amount you gave to the ref to slow the game down with all his meaningless penalties!
