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Cheetahs have a punchers chance

Started by Beeno17 REPLIES223 VIEWS· 15 Jul 2013, 10:13
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BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
15 Jul 2013, 10:13
#1
15 Jul 2013, 10:13#1

Ex Sport 24 

Cape Town - The good news for the Cheetahs, contemplating their debut in the Super Rugby finals series on Sunday (08:10 SA time), is a slightly shorter and less intimidating trek abroad than might have been the case.


By tackling the Brumbies in a Canberra qualifier, rather than having to continue their aerial journey to New Zealand and face the in-form, seven-time champion Crusaders (loaded by the central contrqacting system with abs), Naka Drotske’s charges may well feel just a tad more confident about their chances of recording an upset and advancing to the semi-finals.

While rightly still underdogs, no doubt, in bookies’ minds, you do feel they have a puncher’s chance of victory at Canberra Stadium - particularly if they “have a go” in finest Free State attacking tradition - whereas Christchurch tends to be a stubbornly unrelenting graveyard for South African sides.

It’s worth remembering, after all, that SA conference wooden-spoonists the Kings earned a famous 28-28 draw in the Australian capital earlier in the 2013 campaign, so it not as though teams from our shores need to go there with any special dread.

While the Cheetahs have never won away to the Brumbies in four attempts since the first encounter in 2006, they have come close twice, losing 29-23 in 2008 and by a controversial 24-23 last time out in 2012.

On the latter occasion, Adriaan Strauss and company led for the lion’s share of the fixture and were only undone by a fatal penalty conceded at a scrum (one of infuriatingly many awarded the Brumbies’ way by referee Keith Brown on the day) in the 81st minute - Christian Lealiifano did the necessary to make the critical difference on the scoreboard.

So to some extent the Cheetahs may be additionally motivated by a wish for justice, come Sunday.

They should also take heart from their gradually improving reputation as overseas travellers, once a serious Achilles’ heel for them.

This year saw them win a fabulous three times in their four assignments outside South Africa: following a first-up 45-3 walloping at the hands of the Chiefs, they went on to beat all of the Highlanders (36-19), Waratahs (27-26) and Force (19-10).

Having seen off other Australian challengers the Rebels (34-16) and Reds (27-13) in Bloemfontein, the Cheetahs can, in fact, achieve a particularly memorable clean sweep for the year over Aussie foes if they topple the Brumbies, who they did not meet in ordinary season.

On the negative side, however, they will be only too aware that a backlash can be expected from the hosts, only aided by their coaching reins being held by a certain Jake White, who has still-intimate knowledge of South African systems and mindsets.

The Brumbies, frankly, were awful in their shock 21-15 loss to the Force in Perth on Saturday, which denied them an opportunity to claim a top-two spot on the overall table, even though Aussie conference success was already assured.

They just did not seem to be at the races mentally and made a series of elementary and sometimes rank juvenile errors.

Still, there were shades in it, ironically, of a similar performance by the Cheetahs not too long ago, when they went to Newlands and were all too comfortably dismantled by the Stormers 28-3.

Suitably chastened, the Cheetahs then grilled the Blues in a key Bloemfontein clash a week on - deep down, the men from the Free State will be all too aware that the Brumbies will push for a similar sort of resurrection in the qualifier match following their once-off ineptitude. 

We will also only know on Sunday whether the Cheetahs’ bye weekend has been a help or hindrance; sometimes the week off can see a certain staleness creep into play when a team eventually resumes combat.

But steering clear of Christchurch remains a decent comfort for Drotske’s troops ... now can they cheekily cash in?

What a fairy tale if somehow the Cheetahs win it. Fortunately the trvel bug wont affect them.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
15 Jul 2013, 10:38
#2
15 Jul 2013, 10:38#2
Beeno First of all - I cannot recollect last years game reffed by Keith Brown. He apparently was controversial at best - any real idea who he is and his record of refereeing since then? Who is going to referee the game on Sunday morning? There are a number of issues here that could be giving an outside chance to the Cheetahs. Those are that - * the Cheetahs beat every Aussie team they came up against this year; * the Brumbies win last year was not an overwhelming one at all; and * the Brumbies record against lower ranked teams were in fact poor - they lost to the Force and was kept to a draw by the Kings. On the other hand the Cheetahs lost only one game away on tour against the Chiefs and the Chiefs had a major battle since in the first half the Cheetahs had the upper hand in both the possession and territory stakes and it was only after minute 60 that the team collapsed - largely due to the jet lag factor. For the rest they beat both the Reds and the Waratahs who also recorded wins over the Brumbies. Hope the Cheetahs left for Australia yesterday and arrive today - to eliminate the effects of jet lag by day 6 after their arrival in Australia. I think that the outcome would be more even than expected and there is at least a 40% chance of the Cheetahs beating the Brumbies. The benefit for the Brumbies would be home ground advantage and the influence and knowledge of Jake White as a coach. I hope it would not be a referee - engineered result - hence my question as to who is going to referee the game on Sunday?
BE
Beeno1Captain40,032 posts
15 Jul 2013, 10:51
#3
15 Jul 2013, 10:51#3

Mike the Cheetahs given a fair ref have a reasonable shot at a win. Dont think they are too concerend re Oz sides.

Here is hoping

OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
15 Jul 2013, 19:32
#4
15 Jul 2013, 19:32#4

 Cheetahs have a good potential roadmap to the finals. Given the 6 teams that made the playoffs the potential matchups are as good as can be hoped. The Brumbies do appear to be the most susceptible of the other teams based solely on last weeks performance. If they beat the Brumbies, they would face the Chiefs at home which means they could stay out East and jetlag would not be a factor. No easy task but a lot better than having to fly home to SA to face the Bulls in the semi's. Should they win they will then stay in NZ to play the Saders or fly back to SA to face the Bulls. Winning that final game would be difficult although it would be easier at "home" in SA.

 

Last years back and forth really seemed to wear out the Sharks - perhaps if they had been able to play the semi's in NZ/AUS they would have had a better chance against the Chiefs in the final.

 

 

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
15 Jul 2013, 22:01
#5
15 Jul 2013, 22:01#5
oi-matey The Cheetahs apparently arrived in Sydney today and is travelling to Canberra on Friday or Saturday by bus. So the jet lag issue should not be that bothersome on Sunday. I think the Brumbies has a few key players that can contribute - such as Moore, Mowen and Lei'ifano and Mogge - for the rest they are dead average and if the Cheeths can contain their forwards they can win the game.
OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
15 Jul 2013, 22:15
#6
15 Jul 2013, 22:15#6

Definitely an interesting matchup. The Brumbies have three good kickers in Toomua, Lealifano and Mogg. If they can control their effectiveness I think that they can win.

 

It was interesting listening to the interviews from the Force game and one player (forget who) saying that their gameplan was to kick the ball at the Brumbies (not into touch) because they knew that they would kick it back and they felt they could take advantage of that knowledge.

 

MD
Monkey D LuffyPro6,277 posts
15 Jul 2013, 23:50
#7
15 Jul 2013, 23:50#7

2013 has shown us that EVERY team has a punchers chance,

force v reds x 2, force ve brumbies, kings v brumbies, force v crusaders, waratahs v chiefs

so the cheetahs have every bit a good chance of beating the brumbies, but IMO the odds are well in the brumbies favour.
brumbies are the stronger team in terms of where they finished via points, but they just look the more threatning team, mogg, leilafano, mowen, toomua, speight, tomane, sio, carter, kimillin, some class names in this team, not that the cheetahs are short either mind u, i just find the brumbies more threatning.

brumbies were very poor against the force, but the bulk of these players just returned from walabies duties and they looked like they could do with a week off, so im not reading too much into that loss. IMO white should have just benched most of those players, who had just battled their asses of in the lions sereis loss.

speaking of the lions, dont forget the herculean effort from the brumbies against the lions, and missing their wallaby players too.
something tell mes that the brumbies are going to open up a serious can of whoop ass this weekend, especially as the brumbies finally bring home a final after a 10year absnece which will pump up the fans.
home advantage is everything in the spXV, and there wont be too many teams who take advantage of that.

hope the cheetahs win though, will make it possible for an all NZ final, :o)

sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,297 posts
16 Jul 2013, 00:17
#8
16 Jul 2013, 00:17#8

They have a small chance of being able to punch out the Brumbies, however no chance of then crossing the ditch to then knock out the Chiefs.

 

I am probably going to prefer that the Brumbies beat the Cheetas- to make the semi finals of

1. Chiefs vs Crusaders

2. Bulls vs Brumbies

 

I would then expect the Bulls to beat the Brumbies, and most likely the Crusaders to beat the Chiefs.

 

This would make a Final of Bulls vs Crusaders.

 

I don't think the Bulls are playing great, it is not the vintage team of 2008-2011.

However in Pretoria they are still very dangerous and I think they won the most back to back games of the tournament (having lost none in Pretoria this year).

 

— END OF THREAD —

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