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Chiefs v Crusaders SuperRugby Semi-final Preview

Started by Monkey D Luffy1 REPLIES266 VIEWS· 27 Jul 2013, 08:27
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MD
Monkey D LuffyPro6,277 posts
27 Jul 2013, 08:27
#1
27 Jul 2013, 08:27#1
Chiefs v Crusaders SuperRugby Semi-final

Dan Carter and his All Black understudy Aaron Cruden will go head to head


There is a sense of deja vu with this match as the Chiefs and the Crusaders faced each other in Hamilton in the 2012 Super Rugby Semi-final and that match was won 20-17 by the Chiefs.

 

The Chiefs went on to win the Super Rugby title a week later after they beat a travel weary Sharks team.

 

The Chiefs have played the Crusaders 22 times in Super Rugby since March 1996 and the Chiefs have won 7 times and lost 15 times.

 

There have been no draws between the teams so the Chiefs have a record of winning 32% of their matches against the Crusaders.

 

Across all venues the average score when the Chiefs play the Crusaders is Chiefs 20 Crusaders 29.

 

This weekend the match will be played in Hamilton which is home for the Chiefs.

 

The Chiefs have had home advantage over the Crusaders on 12 occasions and they have won 5 times and lost 7 times.

 

In 1998 the Chiefs moved a match to Albany and in 2011 they played in Tauranga and they each won one match so the results cancel each other out.

 

In Hamilton the Chiefs have played the Crusaders 10 times and they have won four times and lost six times. That gives the Chiefs a record of winning 40 % of their home matches in Hamilton.

 

In Hamilton when the Chiefs play the Crusaders the average score is Chiefs 22 Crusaders 24.

 

Statistically the stats suggest that the Crusaders have a 60% chance of winning this Super Rugby Semi-final by two points. However stats don't always tell the whole story.

 

These teams met just two weeks ago and the Crusaders won the match 43-15 in Christchurch which is home for the Crusaders.

 

In Hamilton the Chiefs have won their last two matches against the Crusaders 28-19 (in May) and 20-17 (Jul 2012).

 

Before that though the Chiefs' last home victory against the Crusaders was way back in 2008. And before that in 1996.

 

In terms of recent form the Chiefs have won two out of their last three three matches as they beat their Blues in their last outing.

 

At home in Hamilton this year the Chiefs have played six matches and won 5 - they lost to the Reds. This gives them a record of winning 88% of their home matches this year.

 

The Crusaders on the other hand have played 8 away matches in 2013 and won just three matches giving them a record of winning 38% of their away matches.

 

Out of their last three away matches they have won two as they beat the Highlanders and the Brumbies but lost to the Chiefs.

 

The Chiefs will effectively be coming off a bye as they had last weekend off and they have made seven changes to the team that played the Blues two weeks ago. That means that almost half the team have not played a full match in three weeks.

 

The Crusaders have named an unchanged team for this week and they are the form team currently. They have the longest still current winning streak as they have won their last five matches and they have scored four tries of more in three of their last four matches.

 

Out of the Crusaders last ten matches they have only lost once - ironically to the Chiefs.

 

In last week's Crusaders match they found holes in the Reds defence in the centre-field which is also where the Chiefs look a little thin this week as Tim Nanai-Williams is out and Andrew Horrell comes into the starting line up.

 

Average score: Chiefs 20 Crusaders 29

Last five results
05 Jul 2013 Chiefs v Crusaders 15-43 Christchurch
24 May 2013 Chiefs v Crusaders 28-19 Hamilton
27 Jul 2012 (Semi) Chiefs v Crusaders 20-17 Hamilton
06 Jul 2012 Chiefs v Crusaders 21-28 Hamilton
09 Mar 2012 Chiefs v Crusaders 24-19 Napier

 

Chiefs overall record against the Crusaders
Played 22 ,Wins 7 ,Losses 15 ,Draws 0

 

Super Rugby Semi-Final (Match D)
Match No.123/125: Chiefs v Crusaders
Date : Saturday 27 July, 2013
Venue : Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand
Kick Off local: (1935 local, 1735 NSW/ACT, 0935 SAT, 0735 GMT)
Referee: Steve Walsh
Assistant Ref 1:Glen Jackson
Assistant Ref 2:Chris Pollock
TMO : Glenn Newman

 

Teams

Chiefs
1.Toby Smith , 2.Hika Elliot , 3.Ben Tameifuna , 4.Craig Clarke (c) , 5.Brodie Retallick , 6.Liam Messam , 7.Tanerau Latimer , 8.Matt Vant Leven , 9.Tawera Kerr-Barlow , 10.Aaron Cruden , 11.Asaeli Tikoirotuma , 12.Andrew Horrell , 13.Charlie Ngatai , 14.Lelia Masaga , 15.Gareth Anscombe
Replacements : 16.Rhys Marshall , 17.Ben Afeaki , 18.Michael Fitzgerald , 19.Sam Cane , 20.Augustine Pulu , 21.Bundee Aki , 22.Robbie Robinson.

 

Crusaders
1. Wyatt Crockett , 2. Corey Flynn ,3. Owen Franks , 4. Luke Romano , 5. Sam Whitelock , 6. George Whitelock , 7. Matt Todd , 8. Kieran Read (c) , 9. Andy Ellis , 10. Dan Carter , 11. Zac Guildford , 12. Tom Taylor , 13. Ryan Crotty , 14. Tom Marshall , 15. Israel Dagg ,
Replacements : 16. Ben Funnell , 17. Joe Moody , 18. Luke Whitelock , 19. Richie McCaw , 20. Willi Heinz , 21. Tyler Bleyendaal , 22. Adam Whitelock.
 

MD
Monkey D LuffyPro6,277 posts
27 Jul 2013, 08:37
#2
27 Jul 2013, 08:37#2

winner of this match wins the 2014 spXV and the my moneys with the crusaders, their form plus the injury issues with the cheifs has them favourites IMO.

looking at the match ups
front row
t smith, h elliot, b taumafuina
vs
w crockett, c flynn, o franks
while the chiefs have got some raw power in big ben, the experinece of the saders front row gives them an edge.
crocektts goign to have to becareful though, cos walsh loves to use the whistkle come scrum time.
advantage crusaders

locks
b retallick, c clarke
vs
l romano, s whitelock
NZ s best locking combos including the top 3 locks in the country in the crusaders pair plus brodie, craig clarke wouldnt be too far off from the top 5 if not 4 either, so this battle would be close if it wasnt for the fact that romano and whitelock have been the ebst locking combo in the spXV.
advantage crusaders

loosies
t latimer, l messam, m van leven
vs
g whitelock, m todd, k read
another match up full of class. chiefs have made a nice find with matt leven who has worked hard to become the incumbent 8 for the chiefs, and while messam and latimer have been a little offish 2013, it would be stupid to not expect them to be lethal in their own backyard.
the crusaders though have this area well marked too, todd, read and one of the most underestimated players in rugby george whitelock have been a tour de force the last couple of months.
advantage crusaders.

halves
t kerr barlow, a cruden
vs
a ellis, d carter
wow, the match ups just keep getting better!!!
kerr barlow and cruden have one of the bestbst halves pairing in the comp, carter is the best player in the world at the moment and ellis is a seasoned veteran in hot form too.
form is clearly on the crusaders side, but cruden has shown carter whose boss the last two times in hamilton and hes going to have to do it again this week if the chiefs are to defend their ttile.
advantage crusaders.

center
a horrel c ngati
vs
t taylor, r crotty
this is an easy one for me, crusaders have the advantage big time. crotty would have to be the form center based for the last two months and taylor keeps getting better and better.
advantage crusaders

outside backs
a tikrotuma, g anscombe, l masaga
vs
z guilford, i dagg, t marshall
the form advantage like everywhere else is clearly in the crusaders corner, but masaga has the best meters per average of anyone with 50+ carries in the spXV and anscombes has under rennie become world class.
dagg and marshall have just been getting better and better, dagg looks to be making up for lost form in the first half of the season, putting in outstanding performances every game since his 2nd All Blacks test his year.
meanwhile both zac and tikrotuma have been heavy contributors to their repective teams,
advantage crusaders.

bench
 r marshall, b afeaki, m fitzgerald, s cane, a pulu, r robinson, b aki
v
b funnel, j moody, l whitelock, king richie, w heinz, t blyendaal, a whitelock
chiefs have a real decent bench, with star on the rise r marshall and players like afeaki, cane, robinson and aki, but the crusaders bench is the best in the comp, not cos of the quality, but cos of the fact they dont lose anything on the field when changes are made even if its a forced change. that smooth transition that every crusader has ebbed into their rugby DNA has been why they have put on performances which have completely destroyed the reds and chiefs when they last faced them.

the advantage is clearly with the crusaders, but the chiefs i hamilton are always dangerous and they have only faltered their once all year, so if they can tap into that spiritual pwoer from the waikato river, plus feed of those crazy mooloo supporters, chiefs will be more then up to the challenge of the great rugby crusade.

its going to be an awesoem match, with the winner who ever it is gurnateed to win the spXV title, :o)

sidenote
of the semifinalsits
crusaders have faced them all this year and here was the results on thier last encounters
crusaders 43 v 15 chiefs
crusaders 30 v 23 brumbies
crusaders 41 v 19 bulls

NZ, SA & OZ conference leaders all smashed by the ceusaders, brumbies scoe looks close, but 10 of the brumbeis points were scored in the last 4 mins, including the penalty so that they could salvage a bonus point.
pretty scary stuff for anybody facing the crusaders.

— END OF THREAD —

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