Do cards have an impact whether a team win or lose

It is interesting to note that we always believe that if a team is carded then the other team is at a straight disadvantage. We have seen so many times the boks imploded when they lose a player.

I remember that shoulder charge on Wilkinson by Labuscagne back in 2001 or something. Korne Krige was the captain and what resulted was ons of the most embarrassing games in bok history. Not only did we get a red card in the 3 minutes but our team then went on just to play dirty. What the player didn't realise were the amount of cameras and slow motion. The boks was for ever labeled a dirty team and we draw a lot of hate. Don't forget in the 90s players could still ruck and before that fist would fly often as soon as the ball was kicked.

However, south Africa was the last team to play smarter.

Yet, on the weekend something change and what was a revelation is that Rassie said, we expected it and we learned how to play with it.

The only other memorable win was Sharks against Crusaders in Christchurch. That was anotjer remarkable game where the offending team came away with a win.

The All Blacks moaned about Kanes red and that wasn't a fair contest but yet the boks showed that shouldn't make such a big difference and perhaps also explain the score line.

Well done rassie and the boks

I remember that game clearly. Easily the worst Springbok performance I've ever seen. Corne Krige's behaviour on the pitch that day was nothing short of disgraceful.

As for red cards, well, on this board a red card is very important if the coach that you hate wins a game where the other team has a red card. In that scenario, a red card decides the outcome of a game.

However, if the same coach wins a game where the red card was against his team, then a red card isn't nearly as important, barely worth a mention.

"Yesterday’s game became one of the greatest Bok wins in memory, mostly because of the card. Absent the card we would have won, possibly by more, but it wouldn’t have the same aura. The card created the sense of a challenging contest and made the victory so much sweeter"

Only, when someone says that winning despite the red card makes it one of the greatest Bok games ever, then there is no inconsistency.

How now, brown cow?

What I like what Rassie did is realise how to create a hybrid player like AE. But in return he had to get rid of Dud and Kolisi. He then brought on another lock. If it was just a back row player then maybe it would only be dud.

What I noticed is that AE would pack down if it is a bok scrum in their own half. As a result we got a scrum penalty. When it was a lineout drive he would put AE in the line out and it has now resulted in two tries for the man mountain..

If it is defensive play the AE would take up the inside centre role in place of Dud or defensive. He can more the player in at least 4 scenarios where always make sure he is never short of a player in defence or attack.

I use to play that extra centre role at school. I would stand at inside centre when it is a line out and then just smash it up and break the line. But centres like that as now players like Bundi and Dud.

I don't like that AE is not our first choice 12 and we have to watch dud just waste ball with not skills. At least get Willemse in at 12.

But for now it is working and you can see what Rassie is working on

What I like what Rassie did is realise how to create a hybrid player like AE. But in return he had to get rid of Dud and Kolisi. He then brought on another lock. If it was just a back row player then maybe it would only be dud.

What I noticed is that AE would pack down if it is a bok scrum in their own half. As a result we got a scrum penalty. When it was a lineout drive he would put AE in the line out and it has now resulted in two tries for the man mountain..

If it is defensive play the AE would take up the inside centre role in place of Dud or defensive. He can more the player in at least 4 scenarios where always make sure he is never short of a player in defence or attack.

I use to play that extra centre role at school. I would stand at inside centre when it is a line out and then just smash it up and break the line. But centres like that as now players like Bundi and Dud.

I don't like that AE is not our first choice 12 and we have to watch dud just waste ball with not skills. At least get Willemse in at 12.

But for now it is working and you can see what Rassie is working on

What the game proves is that it puts to bed the bullshit about the WC final being gifted to the Boks because NZ were down to 14 men.

Aside from the fact the Boks were down to 14 men for 20 min and had no specialist hooker to enforce the set piece advantage and the fact it was pissing with rain which negated playing it wide to take advantage of the numbers

The Boks thumping France with 14 men shows what can be done when you are numerically disadvantaged

K C

Forget about Esterhuizen ver playm at center for t he Sring boks - his future with the Boks will be as a loosie. He is too slow at center and to slow in decisionmaking. Stats always show that;-

1. At center - 2 tries scored in 21 matches played,
2. At Loosie - 2 tries scored in 4 matches played,

He ahs the encessary power to play as a loosie - but as a slow center he is just not a center at all, Wite realizd it in 2014 and Erasmus actually implemented it on test level and for Estrhuizen it worked out.

So forget about Esterhuizen as a center.

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Yes Dave, you are right. But if it was a key player where you don't have a sub like 9 or if it is one of your x-Factor players like Sasha or someone that isn't close to the player then it can have an impact.

I never liked cards and always felt it should be straight swap and the player should be fined, end of.

however, if you look at the Jan Hendrik drama, I don't have much hope that the rugby disciplinary team would be fair.

Emotional twaddle. Of course red cards matter. That doesn’t mean that it works like clockwork. There are exceptions as well saw on Saturday where the red cards matter actually motivated the Boks and gave them energy.

A red card almost always has a major scoring effect in elite rugby, and its impact is statistically measurable.

Here is the best available evidence from Super Rugby, the Rugby Championship, URC, Premiership Rugby, and Six Nations data.

Teams playing 14 vs 15 concede, on average:

? 0.8 to 1.1 points per 10 minutes

(adjusted for match state and team strength)

Over a full 40–50 minutes, the expected net swing becomes:

? 8–15 points in favour of the team with 15 men.

This is the average effect observed across ~500 professional matches with a red card in the past decade.

A red card drops win probability by:

1. ~25–35 percentage points in the first 10 minutes
2. ~45–55 percentage points if issued before halftime
3. Effectively decisive if given in the first 25 minutes

In other words:

? Early red = almost certain loss

? Late red = ~5–10 point swing but not always decisive

Red card BEFORE 40 minutes:

1. Team with 14 men wins only 8–12% of matches
2. Average losing margin: ? 14–20 points

Red card AFTER 60 minutes:

1. Team with 14 men wins 25–35% of matches
2. Average scoring differential: ? 5–10 points

Six Nations (2010–2024 data):

1. Red-carded team loses by 12.5 points on average
2. Only 1 win in this period with a red card before halftime

Super Rugby (2011–2023):

1. Red card = 13.4 point swing on average
2. Early red (first 20 min): 17.2 point swing

URC & Pro14:

1. Teams with red cards lose by 10–15 points, depending on timing

Rugby World Cups:

1. Red card shifts expected margin by 12–18 points
2. Notable exception: South Africa 2023 QF vs France (Dupont concussion context) but that was not a red card event.

Read and learn Rhonda.

KC

De Allende played a good match when he was on the field and he was not disposed of because of poor play. You did want to see what he did. Etzebeth produced fuck all and his replacement was essentail and Snyman and Nortje played a major role up front. So when it came to repalcement of Kolisi he had to make a choice as a loosie replacement and Estehizen was groomed to play as a loosie and has recent experience playing as a loosie. Erasmus had two choices to make and those were Kolisi - who were substandard anyway - and then between Kriel and De Allende. So he comsidered and said he needs somebody with at least some ability to play at inside center and that was the only reason he made the choice of De Allende and not Kriel since Esterhuizen at least has sme exerience of playing at 12, Kriel was another non-producer as well -so that was the reasoning.

Mozart

Statistics means zero when it came to match putcomes and is meaningless anyway. It was proved in thr mstch on Saturday which showed it was BS. In the end team play and good coaching and player management made a massive difference in match outcomes. .

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Of course it’s not a scoring punishment….they just send off players for 10 minutes so the ref can look good consulting the TMO. Well done Saaiman, once again you have unraveled the truth.

I see there is a still on social media showing Ramos blocking Lood’s arm, preventing him from making the wrap

I'm not sure I buy the arm blocking. Lood is what, 120kg coming in with momentum. A stationary hanging arm is going to block his arm from swinging round if that was his intent? I find this hard to believe. For me there is more mitigation, looking at it again, in the fact that Ramos was struggling through a tackle upright one moment, Lood started launching his tackle and suddenly Ramos is on the ground and in the blink of an eye the target is no longer the player's waist but his head. In the space of about 0.5 seconds, there's not much a player can do to change the action he has committed to. But we've talked about these cards for years now. Nothing is going to change.

Yeah who knows - but I think a 20 min red should have been the outcome

The ref live said play on when he saw it, after reviewing it he was talking yellow but seemed to be talked into the straight red by the TMO

20 min red is what it should have been

Just shows how deceiving stills are - seeing a slow motion of the incident it’s clear Ramos’s arm does not block Lood from trying to effect a wrap

cv