Marc Hinton
OPINION: You have to figure if there's a banana skin test for the All Blacks on this supposedly defining northern tour it lurks at Stade de France this weekend.
No-one fancies the French, and with good reason. They were swept 3-0 by the world champions in New Zealand in June and since then have played precisely zero matches and been together a grand total of four days, and counting. What have the All Blacks done since? Only beaten South Africa and Argentina two out of two and Australia three of three as they've rattled up 11 straight test victories for this year.
The record book paints an even gloomier picture for the French.
They have lost their last seven tests against the All Blacks, and may also have lost that "je ne sais quoi" they've always seemed to possess that allowed them to spring some of the great upsets over the New Zealanders through the years.
It's been 13 long years since Les Bleus last toppled the All Blacks in France and an incredible 40 since they last did so in Paris. These are not promising numbers, in case you need a translation.
Yes the French have knocked the All Blacks out of two World Cups and went a heck of a close way to completing the hat-trick in a brutally epic final in 2011. But these matches have been the exceptions, rather than the rules, and there's no sense that this squad of Philippe Saint-Andre's has the special ingredients to write their own way into folklore.
All of which makes this test match (kickoff 9am Sunday, NZ time) potentially the most dangerous on this three-leg European jaunt.
The French are certainly due, they've got nothing to lose, and they will be heavily motivated after getting swept in a June series in New Zealand that was a bit more competitive than the final margin suggested.
Plus, as we saw last year when the All Blacks dropped their Twickenham finale, it is a tricky process to keep the motivational fires brewing when you're into month 10 of the never-ending season. A definite fatigue factor is lurking - it just remains to be seen whether it can be batted away.
The All Blacks are a perfect 11 from 11 so far this year and the revenge match against England is up next week in London. There might be a temptation to go through the motions this week and expect the result to just happen. Plus, this is also their most difficult travel week - with one group crossing the globe and the other jetting in from Tokyo - as the New Zealanders play a fifth consecutive test match in a fifth different country.
And if you're a superstitious sort you might wonder about the launch of the serious part of test preparations in Paris on Tuesday. There was no Steve Hansen, with the coach away at a referees summit in London, and no Julian Savea, with the star wing still feeling the worse for wear from his dose of the flu.
It all makes this potentially the trickiest of these next three tests. You have to think motivation takes care of itself next week at Twickenham, with the All Blacks desperate to prove last year was an aberration. And Ireland? Well, they've never beaten some pretty ordinary New Zealand teams down through the years, so it's impossible to see them rolling this great one.
In other words, get over this first hurdle in the north and the All Blacks could be on their way to test rugby's first perfect year.
Indications here yesterday were pretty positive, with a sharp training run undertaken in the rain in Paris and skipper Richie McCaw and in-form No 8 Kieran Read both mentioning later in the day that they sensed heads were in the right space.
"There's bit of a step up in intensity and feeling for what's going to come on Saturday," McCaw said. "There's still a couple trainings to go, but the attitude is right, which is what you'd expect. We've just got to make sure we get all the little things ticked off so we're 100 per cent clear, then you can bring the attitude that's required to make it all work."
And Read said the absence of Hansen for the day was taken in stride by a group that's shown a remarkable ability to roll on without the presence of key people.
"The structures we have in place are pretty strong and whoever is filling a role, they do their job and get it done," said the No 8 who's pumped for his first test in Paris.
"That's probably how it worked out today. It's not all about Shag yelling and screaming at us, it's about getting the work done and that's what we did today."
The French, of course, will have their own say in how things pan out. But if the All Blacks turn up, it's hard to see them taking a November tumble for a second straight year.
