High noon on the high veldt for Black adder...

Calculating how many competition points the Crusaders may require to make the Super Rugby finals is already a scary exercise.

 

Since Super Rugby's extension to 15 teams three years ago the minimum points needed to place sixth has been 54 - the total reached by the Cheetahs last year.

This statistic means the Crusaders, who have accumulated just nine competition points from five matches, must win their remaining 11 round-robin fixtures and also secure several bonus points to reach the finals for a 13th consecutive time.

 

Given that the Crusaders have only totalled nine tries and two wins, that's a big ask - a bit like tossing them a pair of flippers and a snorkel and instructing them to climb Mt Everest.

The Crusaders' biggest saviour may yet be their competitors though. It's the unpredictable results that keep them in this race, with only eight points separating the second-placed Brumbies from the 13th-placed Crusaders.

 

It would be wasting ink to list ways the Crusaders can win the title because at the moment that's just a pipedream.

Writing such scornful statements usually ends up being pinned to the team's wall as a way of geeing-up the players; let's hope it works because not much else seems to be galvanising them.

 

For frustrated coach Todd Blackadder, being lodged in South Africa must seem like the perfect location following the  26-23 loss to the Hurricanes.

He is copping it from all angles and rarely has he needed a win so badly as the one his team is chasing against the Lions in Johannesburg on Sunday.

Blackadder's optimism during the summer, when the squad gathered for their first training at Taylor's Mistake, seems a long time ago.

 

Even with Dan Carter on a sabbatical he believed playmakers Colin Slade, Tom Taylor and Tyler Bleyendaal would provide adequate cover and that his forward pack, stacked with internationals, would ensure possession wouldn't be an issue.

It's now apparent the Crusaders may have invested too heavily in their forwards, of which 10 are All Blacks.

 

Signing cheques for the big boys no doubt chewed-up much of their budget and diminished their chances of signing a back possessing X-factor or the physique to keep opposition defenders in a state of anxiety on the eve of a match.

Fijian wing Nemani Nadolo, listed at 125kg, undoubtedly has the size to bust tackles and intimidate, but he has yet to start a game. We just haven't seen enough of him to believe he is a beast on attack.

 

There were hopes Reynold Lee-Lo, who started at centre in the early losses to the Chiefs and Blues and the scratchy win over the Stormers, would thrive in Christchurch after shifting from the Hurricanes.

 

Lee-Lo was so good at the Canes he was voted as the players' player of the season, but his lack of form at the Crusaders forced his dismissal after just three games.

All Blacks wing Zac Guildford has been left behind from the South African tour. His rapid decline from favour suggests the 25-year-old is still confronting personal issues following his well-documented battles with alcohol.

 

Adding to the pressure are injuries to lock Luke Romano and loosehead props Joe Moody and Tim Perry.

Blackadder can't worry about any of that. He has got to get his team to win in Jo'burg.

 
Well Brycy, you sound as if your about to flip into a fully fledged state of panic.

We are expecting a few of our bigger boys back. Derrik Minnie and Anthony Volmink have finally returned from injury.

Still, a team of nobodies, coached by an inexperienced coach, most of the lads are playing super rugby for the first time, but playing with passion and with focus. They have their tails up. 4 from 6 so far. Yet to lose at home.

We have a very good shot at taking the Crusaders out this weekend. I'm sure that would put a very big dent in the Saders chances and a rather large smile on my face ... who knows it might just enable us to stay away from the dreaded wooden spoon.

I'm hoping the stadium will be packed to the rafters giving the under dogs all their support.

Gooooo Lionsssss!!!!!!!

 

 Brycy
The problem is not the coach - the problem is the squad he has available to select a team from.
Lets look at the team again and find out where the problems are.
*   Dagg - despite his reputation - thus far this year was average to poor.   
*   They have Ryan Crotty at center and what besides him?
*   I like Taylor and Slade a lot - they seem to be nice guys - but they are not top notch players.
*   Ellis was downright poor this year.
*   Read was playing the fool - he is a better player than he showed thus far in Super 15.  For the rest their loosies are bog ordinary.
*   Their tight 5 is probably the best in New Zealand - but that does not mean much.
Blackadder is stuck with a team with a few quality players - who seems to under-perform continuously this year - and for the rest a squad of bog-ordinary players.   If the quality players take the lead and start producing the goods - then the Crusaders may do better - but there is virtually no sign of that happening.
My point remains - and I said it at the start of the season - the Crusaders squad does not seem to be strong enough.   No coach would do much better than Blackadder did - taking into account the quality of the squad at his disposal and the under-performing of the All Blacks in the team.
Personally i think the Lions will win the game if they show the passion shown thus far by their players.      

 ...Hard to believe the Crusties are favourites paying NZ$1.62 compared to the Lions $2.20...considering no Carter...no McCaw...not sure about Kieren Read but Lions should have a good chance being on home ground and given their current win/ loss ratio...but only a fool would write a Crusaders team off completely..

 

...compounding problems for the Crusaders is they failed to invest in a decent center in the off season so lack a line breaker of any consequence for Dagg to run off-  this may be their biggest downfall and why Blackadder may be looking for a new job next year...as they haven'y won a title since Robbie Deans was coach...might be time to bring Robbie back???

 

...how the Crusaders lack of form will impact on this years ABs is another concern as Hansen has invested heavily in the Crusties being a great Canterbury stalwart former Cantab rep and Crusty coach himself with the added aspirations of becoming mayor of Christchurch...he's said he will be picking players on form and is not afraid to wield the axe so lots of pressure on the Crusties to perform this weekend...

Brycy
Carter is sure to make a difference - but McCaw won't.  He is not the player he used to be and that is a fact not really appreciated by the NZ fans.   

 
McCaw is still streets ahead of many youngsters, Mike.

His work rate is astounding for the geezer he is. He'll make a difference ... he always does ... of that I have no doubt.

Don't forget to put on your specs every time you watch a rugby match, Mike. It will help clear up the misconception that your stupid!!

Glad to help, gov!!

 ...not so clever mike..if i had a dollar for everytime you told me that about McCawesome i'd be able to retire a very rich man... the trophy cabinet seems to suggest otherwise my friend...