History suggests Boks will overpower Wallabies

Some think this test is al ost cause. Maybe not.

Cape Town - Both sides are fielding new-look starting lineups with the 2019 World Cup in mind, but the Springboks will still start Saturday's Rugby Championship clash against the Wallabies as overwhelming favourites. 

History, particularly at Ellis Park, has a lot to do with that. 

The sides have met a total of 10 times at the iconic venue, with the Springboks winning 9 of those. 

Their only loss came all the way back in 1963, when the Wallabies scored the only try of the game to secure a 10-9 victory. 

South Africa's overall record at Ellis Park, meanwhile, also makes for good reading and they have won 35 of their 50matches at the venue since 1928 with a win percentage of 70%. 

The Boks have won 35 of their 46 Tests against Australia in South Africa for a win percentage of 77.17% on home soil, while they are also slightly ahead in the overall head-to-head stats. 

There have been 87 Tests between the sides at all venues since 1933, with the Boks having won 47 of those (55.74%) while the Wallabies have won 37 and there have been 3 draws. 

History obviously doesn't guarantee anything, but it does show that the Springboks have had the upper hand over their southern hemisphere rivals, particularly on home soil. 

Kick-off on Saturday is at 17:05. 

Teams:

South Africa

15 Warrick Gelant, 14 S'bu Nkosi, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Francois Louw, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Rynhardt Elstadt, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth (captain), 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Schalk Brits, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marvin Orie, 20 Marcell Coetzee, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Frans Steyn, 23 Dillyn Leyds

Australia

15 Tom Banks, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nic White, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper

Substitutes: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Rob Simmons, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 Will Genia, 22 Matt To’omua, 23 Kurtley Beale

The difference between the two is that the Wallbies have brought some form players into the mix. Those who put their hands up during the SR season and forced their way in. Guys like Naisarani, Johnson-Holmes and Tupou ... who all had a cracker of a season.

We on the other hand are basing our mix on race first and foremost ... then on the elderly ... and then a few random picks like Herschell Jantjies, who should by rights come off the bench and Elstadt, who for some reason is rated as a contender for the Bok 6 jersey.

You cannot tell me that Dylan Smith didn't deserve a crack at the 1 jersey or how about Sadie at 3.

They can't even get onto the bench for the "B" team. Instead we have a tired geriatric quota who should have hung up his boots ages ago and Hamburger Nyakane running out. ... pretending it's on merit.

How do you expect me to cheer for that?

Maybe Mozart watched that game in 63'    could be,I watched the last one in 08' 53-8 Aussies went to pieces.

They should be more settled this time,arriving early,first game and players ready to go.

Two draws between us recently so maybe another close one.

The biggest test win ever in the professional era  against the Aussies and still a record was in 1997 om Pretoria after the same team beat the BRI Lions in the biggest win ever too.   Carl du Plessis was the coach then.  Both records still stand.    

The most underrated  coach ever - who stated that the Springbok's problem was their inability to score tries,   They scored plenty in those two matches and Mallett took over the team and won the next 15 tests to establish a Springbok record run.   That never worked subsequently - the most noted coaches since then knew nothing about comprehensive rugby play and the last three was bad.   So bad that Meyer made the classical remark that the Springboks backline players did not have the skill to play a ball-in-hand game.

I do not think there will be another record score - but believe that the Springboks will win the game.         

Carel is the Bok coach who was too tactically stunted to test the Lions fullback with kicks. He was out coached in the Lions series, but he remains and underrated coach? No. Mallett was an upgrade. I'm no Mallett fan, but without him that streak doesn't happen. He came undone with the defensive revolution in the game. His adoption of the Brumbie fast rucking game was a mess.

Furthermore, the largest winning margin over Australia belongs to Snor. A 45 point winning margin in a 53-8 victory. Carl's win was a 66-22 victory for a 41 point margin. Snor's victory was also far more dominant. Carl's was actually quite an open game. An odd game where the Boks finished off everything. 

No Mozart

That was exactly what Meyer said,   You apparently just decided to forget about that statement.  and now claimed he did not say what I wrote down.

Jake was a good coach with one great minus - he was clueless about backline play and in the end got Jones to help him out in that, He did nor have a "Jones" when he coached the Sharks and Montpellier and it showed,    

Actually, this is the funniest aspect of this whole Jake-Eddie nonsense. Jones outlined work to be done between 9 and 10, but his greatest influence wasn't working with the backs, but the integration of Schalk on attack. In South Africa backs are seen as the attack and forwards the set pieces and defence. Attacking play involves both, and the integration of forwards on attack is an area where South Africa was well behind the likes of New Zealand and Australia. Meyer was the most flexible of all our coaches. So Jones' greatest legacy is Schalk, who became a far more versatile player because of his time with Jones. The plastics never get anything right, not even accidentally! 

Jake's knowledge of attacking structures and plays is exceptional. His blueprint was all over the World Cup team from game 1 to game 7. 

Lastly, why don't you provide a link to the Meyer quote? I don't believe you. I recall him saying something different. I could merely conclude from past experience that you are a liar, but I am willing to give you the opportunity to provide evidence.

Yes Mike, Carel transformed the Boks into an amazing team. The clueless twits then fired Carel in a blunder of massive proportions.

Since Israel saga I have little to no interest in this game tonight / tomorrow morning. 

Aussie team has one or two worldclass players and the rest are pretty average...

I think it may be closer than you think but think the Aussies guranteed to come last in RC this year and for future decade until they get rid of raylene and drain the swamp at ARU. 

Of what little interest i have i dont mind Aussie 2nd row and... inside centre / tighthead prop... 

the rest wouldnt even make kiwis provincial sides....

AO

I have to quote your comments above  to get to what I am going to write about:-

"Carel is the Bok coach who was too tactically stunted to test the Lions fullback with kicks. He was out coached in the Lions series, but he remains and underrated coach? No. Mallett was an upgrade. I'm no Mallett fan, but without him that streak doesn't happen. He came undone with the defensive revolution in the game. His adoption of the Brumbie fast rucking game was a mess.

Furthermore, the largest winning margin over Australia belongs to Snor. A 45 point winning margin in a 53-8 victory. Carl's win was a 66-22 victory for a 41 point margin. Snor's victory was also far more dominant. Carl's was actually quite an open game. An odd game where the Boks finished off everything."

The above showed again how totally ignorant you really are about rugby and how impossible it is to discuss rugby with you.  First of all you refer to Carel being outcoached  in the Lions series and that alone is KAK in capital letters.    The Lions in the Durban test scored NO TRIES and got 18 points through 5 penalty conversions and a drop goal.   The Springboks scored  THREE tries - but for some mysterious reason Honiball missed all kicks at goal.   If you call that outcoached you must be even more stupid than I think you are.   

And in the third test the Springboks had a  record win against the Lions.- so that I s outcoached too? 

So now to your second statement about kicking - what a farce and you call kicking - mostly aimless and useless ball handovers being clever about rugby,   That is exactly why the Springboks could not score tries.  That is the most stupid comment only surpassed by Mozart I have ever seen on site,

The final sentence make it totally clear - you have NO comprehension about what comprehensive rugby entails.    

Your total ignorance is so obvious that I am really amazed at how little you really know about rugby,     

Yes, Carel's Boks were so good that they lost the series in two consecutive tests, winning the third garbage time test. Great. McGeechan exclaimed that he was worried about the Boks targeting them at the back, that they failed to adapt their tactics at any point in the series surprised him. Inflexible thinking and poor analytics. Another one of those coaches appeasing the plastic philosophy of rugby with the same results. Carel was the Coetzee of his day in that regard. We can change the subject to something more pleasant if you like, lets talk about J-raz and his Skop 'N Pop tactics. 

Sure dofdoos

Is the objective of rugby to kick balls at the full back or to score tries?????????????????

If the first I suggest you are so dim you can go and do comments on soccer.

So lets get back to that series.   The situation in that series were ;-

Points scored  -   Springboks   -   66     Lions       -  59

Tries scored    -   Springboks   -     9     Lions       -    3        

Carel started to get the brainless game out of the Springboks and he succeeded in that he selected the base squad and gave hem instructions as to how to improve their game.  Mallett took over and had the longest winning run of any SA coach. 

No not pleasant for you  your piss brain cannot appreciate what damage SA coaches did to the game of rugby.   That is why when I pointed out the difference in try scoring numbers in the 2012 tests compared to 2018 you scurried away like the rugby brainless skunk you are. 

So lets not get back to the most stupid coaches we ever had in the last two decades.  Top of the list was Meyer - the leader of the Japan disaster with his classic quotes I so often repeated on site.   De Villiers talked kak all the time - but not thoughtless rugby BS like Meyer.  Coetzee was always a poor coach for the Stormers but he at least made worse selections than Meyer did.

And then we have the classic case that skop and pop tactics of Erasmus.  They were generally strategic and was part of a comprehensive game plan - not the aimless rubbish you and Mozart regarded as a proper game plan.   That is why the poorest Springbok flyhalf in decades - Morne Steyn - was so hero worshipped by the two most stupid rugby thinker on site.

Today is the start of the 2019 RC and we will see whether Erasmus will be losing all the RC games like Meyer did in 2015.     .