In Round 6 of the Super Rugby competition, all the home teams emerged victorious. Wins to the Force, Lions and Bulls may have come as a surprise to some, but a closer look at this season’s stats confirms they weren’t surprises at all.
Of the 36 games played so far in the 2014 Super Rugby season, the away teams have won on just five occasions. Of those five, only two games would be considered upsets by most – the Lions beating the Cheetahs by a point in Bloemfontein, and the Chiefs defeating the Crusaders in Christchurch.
Considering that the Chiefs are a quality outfit and defending champs, their away victory should not be considered a true upset.
The other away victories saw the Brumbies defeat the Hurricanes and Force, while the Crusaders defeated the Rebels in Melbourne.
The biggest victory margin by an away team has been the Brumbies’ 13-point margin against the Force in Round 3. Those teams that have lost games at home have not lost without putting up a great fight, and not without coming within close sight of victory.
The point I am trying to highlight here is that home ground advantage is a very big deal in Super Rugby, and worth at least ten points per game. If you want to beat the home team you have to be somewhere between very good and excellent, or sometimes a bit lucky on the day (the ‘unlucky’ Blues against the Lions spring to mind here).
Very few experts tipped the Force, Lions and Bulls to triumph over their opponents this weekend. I believe it is because they greatly underestimated home ground advantage, especially at this stage of the tournament.
The Lions showed a lot of heart by coming back from 14 points down against the Reds at half-time to win by three. The Bulls showed that they are a good side and will probably challenge the Sharks for the top spot in the South African conference again, while the Force can also beat any side – including the reigning champs, as they did this weekend.
It is in the latter stages of the tournament that the sides with more experienced players and management will thrive above the rest. As the season progress, I sense that a lack of player depth in some teams will negate all home ground advantages.
