There are a number of issues to be dealt with here, but in the main one has to deal with a few issues first:-
The playing conditions
This can be problematic for both sides if they want to play a comprehensive flowing game. Ball handling can be problematic for both sides. If the conditions are wet and the ball slippery a tighter game could be expected. That will benefit the Lions with their stronger set pieces.
Injured players
Both sides had their regular captains off on Saturday Coles is a good leader with strong shows in the looser format of the game – but with a questionable contribution to set pieces. Whiteley is tops as an 8 and also a very inspirational leader
It is likely that both players will take the field on Saturday – and their respective will benefit from their presence in the game.
Player valuation per position
Full Back
Here the likely selections would be Marshall and Coetzee. Marshall is very dangerous in attacking play – Coetzee less so. I would rate them 50:50 otherwise. Hurricanes a 60:40 advantage.
Wings
The two combinations are likely to be Jane, Savea and Woodward (Hurricanes) and Combrinck and Skosan (Lions). All three Huricanes players are strong ball carriers and ball handlers – but rather slower than is expected normally from wings. 50:50 situation.
Centers
Likely selection will be proctor and Halaholo (Hurricanes) and Janse van Rensburg, Mapoe and Mnisi (Lions). Here the Lions as a 60:40 advantage over the Hurricanes
Halfbacks
This is where a key role will be played by the players concerned. Based on recent performances I would give the Hurricanes a 55:45 advantage here – but it also depends o the quality of balls they receive from their forwards.
Loosies
In the case of the Hurricanes Savea is a star – but the other two loosies are very average. I would say the combination of Whiteley, Tecklenberg and Kriel is a bettr combination and give the Lions a 60:40 advantage in this case.
Locks
Here I think the Lions has a 55:45 advantage over their opponents.
Props
The Hurricanes scrumming is sub-standard and they are going to suffer badly in that component of the game. The Lions has a 70:30 advantage here
Hookers
Both Coles and Marx are top class players with different attributes. From a ball play situation in open play I give Coles top marks – from tight 5 perspective Marx is far superior. I would say depending on the onditions and the game plan implementation I would give the two players a 50:50 rating.
Summary
The situation is very even and may go either way. My own assessment is that the Lions is goig to beat the Hurricanes by 9 points and that is going to be a very debatable issue. As was stated elsewhere I think the question would be – who wants the trophy most.
