Inserting the Lions squad in Basque's excellent algorithm...

.....we get his third option. The Lions have effectively conceded to the Jaguares by picking a reserve team. Assuming the Bargies don't return the favour by getting more than one red card, a Jaguares victory is the death knell for the Sharks.....and maybe the Lions. Here's Basque's logic:
'and the next most probable variation will be that the Lions lose at B.A. in which case:
1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Stormers
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Chiefs
7. Hurricanes.
8. Sharks

1. Crusaders-8. Sharks          Saders (99/1)
2. Lions-7. Hurricanes    canes (60/40,) they already crushed them in JHB
3. Stormers-6. Chiefs            50/50 
4. Brumbies-5. Highlanders    landers (95/5)

this is no doubt the best for the saders,....... and the most interesting one with 3 games NZ-SA and one AUS-NZ.'


This variation looks very bad for the South African teams. The Sharks will be gone....and while the Lions will be favored to shake their Canes loss.....it has to be in the players' minds.

I don't get it. Big mistake by Ackerman here, hope it doesn't become a massive blunder. Risking home field advantage and the probable matchups are worse. Much more important to keep the momentum going and ensure home playoffs than it is to rest players.
 

 Not what I would have done. 
Still ... he's taken risks before and I accept his judgement on this. 
His confidence in his "second stringers" must surely give them a boost. I reckon they'll give it their all and come back with the much needed win. 
Not so sure we'll collect the required 5 pts though. 

 Mozart - as per normal wishing for a  Lions loss - so what else is new? 

 Mike you need help, or perhaps it's too late.

 Lions will hammer the wee canes. But this was a tricky one for Akkerman. If the Lio ns win he  will be in a much stronger position. Some of his guys are badly overplayed.

 Great. So instead of the Lions playing the Sharks ensuring us a semi team....the Sharks are playing the Canes in NZ and the Lions get the Saders. Is the penny dropping Tokkie?

Are you missing the beat again?

 GO SHARKS!!!!!

 Draad - I do not think the Hurricanes will find the  Sharks as easy a target as the AB supporters on the site is making it out to be.  Mozart is hoping all the SA sides fail to prove his point that rugby in SA went downwards as a result of the departure of so many "senior" players.  I hope that the Sharks has a few players like Lambie and Jordaan back for the game.  

Lambie and Jordaan.....oh sure that's going to make a difference. And don't ascribe your motives to me Poof....I have never pulled against a SA team, even if I thought they were on the wrong track. I can't say the same for you.

 You are the worst prejudiced idiot on this site - stupid too boot.   Jordaan is the center with the lowest missed tackle ratio in Super Rugby - a key to the defense of the Sharks and he is also a key element in their backline play.   Lambie is a key player too - April is at bet  club level player. 

 Jordaan is the guy Reid ran over to start the Sharks' collapse 2 years ago....Lambie has hardly played any rugby since early in the year, and regardless of how one views his success at flyhalf, not ready for the playoffs. 
Get with it.

 That  brainless happened twice in his career - the last time two years ago.   You remain a dolt that remember single incidents in a player's career and make them career-defining.   How many times have Fat Fransie and De Jongh missed tackles in that same period - after all their missed tackle ratio is twice to three times as high as Jordaan's is.   A half-baked Lambie is ten times the player April is.       

So you feel Lambie  is half baked....twice  scrambled seems closer to the truth, but why quibble. Still why a half baked player makes a crucial difference beats me. As for Paul the human doormat Jordaan....lets just hope he. Doesn't have to tackle a big guy in space. History shows that's the kiss of death.

 Hell = but you are dim - did you always wear a dunce cap or was it the crucial contribution made by Meyer that push ed you over the edge?

Meyer impacted my IQ? What's yours by the way...do you crack 100? It mostly doesn't seem that way.

 Last test I was 120 - but that has nothing to do with the rugby issue.   I undetand the game - you don't - HUGE DIFFEREN CE 

Oh dear....perhaps you should lose the dunce argument.

 "...........after all their missed tackle ratio is twice to three times as high as Jordaan's is.
Proof?

I have gone through Super Rugby stats for the years since 2013 and on average were as follows:

Jordaan     -    10,5

Steyn         -      26

De Jongh   -    23,3

Jordaan stats for 2013 was the lowest at 6,42 – when Fat Fransie was at 28% and De Jongh at 23,3%.  In that year Jordaan missed 4 tackles out of 62 tackle attempts – one of which was the tackle Mozart is writing about continuously since that year.

I assume you do not understand the issue of missed tackle ratio’s -  it is beyond your record of understanding.

 

Tokkie do me a favour......multiply 10.5 by 3 ......and report back.  

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