We saw the All Blacks pack struggle at times in 2013, especially on the end of the year tour. They were out muscled by Ireland, France and England in succession for each of their close wins.
If the games had been 65 minutes the All Blacks may well have lost all of 3 matches they played in.
The backline came to the rescue in each of these matches in the last 15 minutes when space opens up as players get tired and the benches are emptied.
The All Blacks play a pack that are more fetcher orientated than strong ball carriers which can dominate the advantage line in order to win the territorial battle via front foot ball from pick and go's, mauling and drives, tackle backs etc.
The ABS are sacrificing some of the traditional eras of forward play in order to be more competitive at rucks.
This allows their backline to run the ball from side to side of the field because as soon as their is a tackle/ruck, they have more fetchers are at the point of breakdown.
The ABS rely on the strength their backs handling skills to pass the ball until a mismatch happens- like a back against a prop, or a gap opens up.
A player like Conrad Smith is very dangerous at outside centre towards the end of matches. He seems to have eyes on the back of his head because he knows where all of his supporting runners are.
The approach of having more fetchers works better on harder pitches, but also on slower pitches towards the end of games. If France or England had got the same lead that Ireland had, it would have been unlikely for the ABS to have struck back at the end of the match.
This year England also pushed the ABS in the physicality stakes for the 1st 2 games vs New Zealand.
I think allot of forward packs will be licking their lips to have a crack at the ABS forward pack in 2014.
Their forwards are very good at rucks but not that good in the physicality of dominating territory - collisions, pick and carries and mauling.
In terms of game plan:
- Forwards keep it tight and direct to tire out the smaller New Zealand pack. Have big forwards running onto front foot ball at pace, with quick pick and carries to dominate the collisions and advantage line. The breakdown is easier to win when keeping it tight amongst the forwards. Space will open up either through the middle or out wide as the defence is sucked in through multi-phase play.
- Only go wide with the backs when their is space.
- Allways kick the ball out, unless when kicking it deep into the All Black's half. Chips kicks and grubbers are an option but only within in the ABS half. Nearly any ABS counter attacks from kicks that do not not go out in your own half will result in points. (Jaco Taute in 2012 was a prime example). The ABS like broken unstructured play to counter attack or kick for position.
- If the kick is not a good option, just keep it in the forwards through multiple phases. Kicking from 1st phase is rarely a good option because the opposition wings and fullbacks will have it covered. If a kick is going to be aimless make sure that it is either as high or as far away as possible.
With more fetchers in their forwards which fan across the pitch, the ABS will win the breakdown battle out wide.
This would prevent opportunities for the All Blacks to counter attack from loose kicks or turn overs.
Then assuming the forwards dominate the territorial game - more of the game will be played in the All Blacks half. Any mistakes made by ABS are opportunities for points.
I think allot of teams will have learnt from the 2013 EOYT weaknesses of the ABS forwards..
The All Blacks strengths is their backline's passing skills so they will sacrifice some of the traditional forward requirements to win the battle of the breakdown out wide.
