And
mozart
Hall Of Fame
37591 posts
Mar 13, 2020, 17:43
There are lots of numbers out there about death rates. But there are 2 big problems...many of those presenting mild symptoms aren’t included in the denominator...and many of the cases are still in the unresolved column.
To me we only have one pure case....the Diamond Princess. Almost every one of the 3711 people on the ship was tested. So we know the denominator to the person. To date only 7 deaths have occurred although it may rise because 364 cases are still active. This is the number to watch...the best insight into the virus. Here’s a report I found on this ‘controlled experiment’.
...........
As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.
Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculates.
These ratios depend on available health care and public health measures, Russell cautions. And there are still uncertainties in the data, he notes. For example, some patients initially counted as asymptomatic may later develop symptoms, or even die. So the true fatality rate may be somewhat higher, “0.6 or 0.7 [percent], but it’s still a good ratio.”